NY Dems just took back one of four House seats they lost in 2022. Can GOP hold the others?
It was one of a string of embarrassing losses for New York Democrats in 2022: a congressional seat in Long Island and Queens that flipped decisively to Republican hands in spite of a Democratic voting edge.
But on Tuesday, a Democrat won it back — by the same commanding margin of nearly 8 points.
Tom Suozzi's victory over Mazi Pilip in a nationally watched special election narrowed Republicans' slender House majority and lifted Democrats' hopes for the fall. In New York, they and Republicans are set to battle for a handful of swing seats — including Suozzi's 3rd District — that helped propel the GOP to House control in 2022 and will play a critical role in November.
What could Suozzi's win mean for the House GOP in 2024?
How much Tuesday's results mean for the other looming New York races is a matter of debate.
Plenty of unique factors were at play, including Pilip's inexperience and Suozzi's familiarity to voters as a former congressman and Nassau County executive; a low-turnout February election with a snowstorm that morning; and lingering disgust over George Santos, the Republican ousted from that House seat after 11 months in office.
But one big aspect resonated far outside the district: Suozzi's head-on approach to a blizzard of GOP attacks on immigration and border security.
His successful stance could guide other New York Democrats: he flipped the issue by supporting the Senate's bipartisan plan for the migrant crisis and criticizing House Republicans for snubbing it.
"He gave a pathway for these Democrats on what looked like a tough issue," Lee Miringoff, a political scientist and director of Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, said in a USA Today Network interview on Wednesday.
Miringoff saw Suozzi's win as a warning sign for Republicans that showed how voters felt about the House majority's dysfunction. For those Republicans facing tough races in New York, it should raise concerns about how close they can get to the party's pro-Trump base without offending moderate voters, he said.
"I think it's a warning sign that the base alone in New York does not do it," Miringoff said.
Which House seats are up for grabs in NY?
Democrats hope to flip five New York seats held by Republican freshmen in districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020. They represent areas from Long Island to Syracuse and include four formerly Democratic seats that Republicans flipped in 2022.
All face what are expected to be tight races.
In the Hudson Valley, Rep. Mike Lawler of Rockland County is already trading jabs with former Rep. Mondaire Jones, a Democrat who previously held the seat and aims to reclaim it. To the north, Rep. Marc Molinaro is set for a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley and Rep. Brandon Williams, in the Syracuse area, has two Democrats vying in a primary to challenge him.
Republicans, meanwhile, are determined to hold those seats and try for another: Rep. Pat Ryan's in the Hudson Valley. He's being challenged by Alison Esposito, a retired New York City police commander.
Lawler had spoken optimistically about Pilip's chances, predicting in a Fox News interview on Tuesday that "tonight you will see Mazi beat Suozzi" and that even many Democrats would vote for her.
"Listen, the issue are in her favor," he said. "The border, crime, affordability — this is all a result of failed Democratic policies in Washington and Albany and New York City. Voters have had enough in New York. They want common sense."
But Jones, his likely opponent in November, got the last word after the results came in.
"Mike Lawler went all in for Mazi Pilip," Jones said in a post on X. "His television addiction and commitment to MAGA extremism caused him to closely align with someone who would join in the dysfunction and incompetence that define his tenure in the House Republican majority. New Yorkers said no thanks."
Will newer House Republicans have incumbency advantages?
For Scott Minkoff, a political science professor at SUNY New Paltz, Suozzi's comfortable victory demonstrated that Democrats continue to perform well in special elections, as they have for the last few years. His overall takeaway? New York Democrats can feel reassured about their prospects this fall.
"If they had sort of really flunked this, then I think people would have been pretty nervous about where Democrats stand," Minkoff said.
He credited Suozzi for embracing the immigration issue instead of retreating, and argued that House Republicans had given Democrats a political "gift" by spurning the Senate's compromise bill. He expects Ryan and other New York Democrats to adopt strategies similar to Suozzi's in this year's campaign.
But predictions about how they will fare based on Suozzi's win only go so far.
Minkoff said one factor that differentiates Tuesday's election from those ahead is the name recognition the Republican members have accrued as incumbents, unlike the little-known county legislator Suozzi beat.
"I don't think you can compare, for example, Molinaro to Pilip," Minkoff said. "They all have sort of their own starting points, and I think these races to some extent are going to stand on their own and not be entirely reflective of national trends."
"These are going to be real elections, with real stakes and real campaigns and real turnout efforts," he said. "They're all very likely to be if not very close, at least the kind of races where the election is not a foregone conclusion."
Chris McKenna covers government and politics for The Journal News and USA Today Network. Reach him at cmckenna@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Democrats just took back Santos' seat. A bad omen for NY Republicans?
