What now? Postseason paths for Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers basketball

With their regular seasons concluded, the University of Cincinnati Bearcats and Xavier University Musketeers have but one certain path to the NCAA tournament.

UC heads to Kansas City for the Big 12 tournament which runs March 12-16. Xavier is off to Madison Square Garden for the Big East tourney running March 13-16.

Win out and both are in. Simple as that.

Should you find that likely, you might want to try your luck at the tables or the lottery.

The Bearcats beat West Virginia 92-56 Saturday to finish 18-13 (7-11 Big 12). Now, based on seeding, they'll face the Mountaineers again Tuesday at 3 p.m. Eastern in the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City.

"I don't know that I've had an experience of playing a team, then playing them three days later in the conference tournament," UC's Wes Miller said. "They beat us already this year so it's not as if just because it got away from them (Saturday) that we think we've arrived or something. We understand how good we're going to have to play on a neutral floor."

Here is the latest look at the future for the two rivals separated by less than four miles (Cintas Center to Fifth Third Arena)

Cincinnati Bearcats postseason path

The Bearcats needed a win over West Virginia Saturday and a Kansas State loss to No. 5 Iowa State to avoid playing in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament on Tuesday. They accomplished half of their goal. UC's decisive 36-point beating of the Mountaineers on Senior Day was entertaining for the 11,914 at Fifth Third Arena.

However, No. 6 Iowa State didn't help the Bearcats as they lost to Kansas State in Manhattan, 65-68 giving the Wildcats the No. 10 seed in the Big 12 tournament and a game on Wednesday.

Should UC defeat West Virginia again, they'll play the No. 6 seed Kansas. The Jayhawks were routed by No. 1 Houston 76-46 Saturday.

UC has split with the Mountaineers, losing 69-65 after leading at halftime, then handing WVU their worst Big 12 defeat of the season on Saturday. The Bearcats lost at Allen Fieldhouse vs. Kansas 74-69 on Jan. 22. They have twice closely played Houston, which blew out the Jayhawks at the Fertitta Center Saturday.

A possible second-round game for the Bearcats would come late Wednesday at 9:30 Eastern. A second-round UC victory would also put them in a late game Thursday. That game would be vs. No. 3 seed Baylor, a team that held off the Bearcats by three in Waco Jan. 13. Advancement from there would be to the semifinal vs. No. 2 seed Iowa State, No. 7 seed Texas or No. 10 seed Kansas State. Should UC be able to survive, No. 1 Houston is on the other side of the bracket.

UC jumped to No. 42 in the KenPom.com ratings Saturday night. That rating plus three wins would seemingly get their name called on Sunday, but the odds against them would be tremendous. With two tournament wins, they would probably need some help in the form of losses from higher-ranked squads.

NCAA bracketology

UC was mentioned early in the week among bubble teams, but that went by the wayside when they lost a lead at Oklahoma and eventually lost the game 74-71. In terms of hurtful losses, the state of Oklahoma hasn't been kind to the Bearcats as the Sooners swept them and the Cowboys of Oklahoma State knocked them off at Fifth Third Arena.

The goal for the Bearcats was to avoid the opening day and the highly improbable task of winning five straight games for an NCAA bid. Winning four straight is nearly as absurd. Assuming a team has a 50% chance of winning a game, the odds of winning four straight are 6.25%. Factoring in favorites on strength of schedule, records, etc. would make it far less.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi, NCAA's Andy Katz, Jerry Palm of CBS and Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports all have the Big 12 with nine tournament entries. Some of those the Bearcats beat, some they should have beaten, some won by single digits. UC's closest Big 12 loss was one to then-No. 25 Texas and their biggest loss was 18 at TCU, a team they defeated in overtime at Fifth Third Arena. The Bearcats average Big 12 loss was by less than six points per game.

Games UC wishes they had back

Three times this season the Bearcats had leads with five minutes to go and lost. At West Virginia, they led 60-53 and lost 69-65. Against Oklahoma State the Bearcats led 63-58 and lost 80-76, giving up 22 points in 300 seconds. At Oklahoma, UC was up 60-53, up again 66-61 with 1:30 to play, then needed an Aziz Bandaogo free throw to force overtime. The Sooners prevailed 74-71.

NIT bracketology

(Yes, it does exist)

Heading into Saturday, NITbracketology.com has UC as a No. 3 seed and one of the Big 12's automatic qualifiers. Kansas State is also a No. 3 seed in a different region and UCF is a No. 4. Currently, UC could be grouped with Ohio State, Indiana, Butler and Xavier pending weekend results.

Dratings.com has UC as a No. 3 seed, Kansas State a No. 4 and UCF a No. 6. Their model also includes Ohio State and Xavier.

Xavier Musketeers postseason path

Like their crosstown rival, Xavier's lone path to a March Madness bid is improbable, yet simple. The Musketeers will have to rattle off four consecutive wins in four days. A tall task considering Xavier's unfortunate run of injuries this season and 0-6 record against the top-3 teams in the conference.

Going into the week, a pair of wins could've bumped to the Musketeers as high as No. 5 in the Big East, which meant a first-round bye at Madison Square Garden. After a pair of six-point losses (at Butler Wednesday and vs. No. 8 Marquette Saturday), Xavier is the No. 9 seed in the conference, ahead of only Georgetown and DePaul.

Xavier will face No. 8 Butler for the second time in a week when the two clubs meet at MSG for the Big East Tournament opener on Wednesday, March 13 at 4 p.m. Adding insult to injury, Xavier got the help it needed to avoid the No. 8/9 seed matchup on Saturday when No. 2 UConn handled Providence and No. 10 Creighton topped Villanova at the buzzer. However, Xavier couldn't handle its business against Marquette to jump to No. 7.

The significance? The prize for winning the 8/9 matchup is a date with No. 1 UConn in the quarterfinals at noon on Thursday. The last time Xavier played UConn, Dan Hurley's crew handed the Muskies its worst loss this century.

Xavier and Butler split the regular-season series for the second-straight year, with each club winning at its home venue.

NCAA bracketology

Look at any NCAA Tournament bracketology projections you prefer, you won't find the Musketeers, who, barring an improbable run to a Big East Tournament title, will miss out on March Madness under Sean Miller for the first time since his first season on the job (2005).

Xavier's tournament hopes hit its peak after a Feb. 7 win over Villanova, which brought Xavier to a season-high three games over .500 (13-10) and 7-5 in league play. After holding off the Wildcats, though, Xavier lost six of its final eight regular-season games. The only wins in that stretch were over Georgetown and DePaul, which did nothing for Xavier's tournament resume.

Games Xavier wishes they had back

You can play the "what-if" with Xavier's season as far back to the summer, dissecting how the season-ending injuries to starting forwards Jerome Hunter and Zach Freemantle impacted the trajectory of a team looking to build off a Sweet 16 run.

As far as the regular season goes, take your pick. In the non-conference, Xavier had two brutal losses at Cintas Center to Oakland and Delaware. The 87-80 defeat to the Blue Hens later became a Quadrant 4 loss. In the end, this season will be remembered for the missed opportunities Xavier had while playing one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

Xavier had ample chances to pick up resume-building victories and turned in multiple great efforts against some of the nation's top teams, but never managed to break through. On top of a six-point defeat to now No. 1 Houston at home, Xavier had seven Big East losses by seven points or less. That's six Quadrant 1 victories left on the table.

NIT Bracketology

Heading into Saturday, NITBracketology.com had Xavier as a No. 4 seed and one of the Big East's automatic qualifiers.

A few factors in this. The top-two teams in each conference in the NET Rankings that do not qualify for the NCAA Tournament are automatic qualifiers for the NIT. Heading into the weekend, Xavier was seventh in the NET Rankings at No. 62, but Seton Hall (No. 63) beat DePaul Saturday and Butler (65) was off, so both teams could jump the Muskies.

It will all depend on the Big East Tournament and how many teams snag a March Madness bid. According to the latest ESPN bracketology projections, Lunardi has six Big East teams making the dance. If Xavier is behind Providence (last four out) and Butler in the NET when the dust settles in Manhattan, the automatic NIT bid goes out the window.

Also, would Xavier accept an NIT bid? With the injuries its dealt with, it seems like the Musketeers would pass and get a head start on recruiting and scouting for the transfer portal to open.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers can continue their seasons