‘We’re not in Kansas.’ But that state’s abortion vote upsets Kentucky’s political calculus

For those of us who have just remembered that Kentucky is one of three states this year to have a constitutional amendment to ban abortion, the general assumption here is that it would pass handily. After all, the supermajorities in both the Kentucky House and Senate passed legislation to put the amendment up for a statewide vote in 2020 and have since then passed a series of draconian measures that would ban abortion completely. Presumably with the support of their constituents.

But on Aug. 2, the reliably Republican state of Kansas turned all conventional wisdom upside down when primary voters defeated a similar constitutional amendment in a 60-40 landslide. And that has given a surge of energy to reproductive rights advocates here in Kentucky.

“We’re talking about our rights and freedoms, so people start to look at this in a different way,” said Danielle Bell, the communications director for Protect Kentucky Access, a coalition of abortion rights groups. “Kentuckians are very concerned about this amendment and what it means because it’s so extreme.”

The depth of the amendment’s defeat in Kansas stunned many, including in counties and regions that voted overwhelmingly for Trump. Clearly the vote was affected by the Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade in late June; the vote no groups in Kansas focused on individual rights and decisions, including some ads that didn’t even mention the word abortion.

Most Americans opposed outright bans with no exceptions; in July, the Democratic Governor’s Association released a poll that showed 62 percent of Kentuckians also opposed an abortion ban with no exceptions. The current legislation, some of which is hung up in court, has only one exception for the life of the mother, but not for rape or incest.

The wording of Amendment No. 2 is both vague and confusing: “To protect human life, nothing in this Constitution shall be construed to secure or protect a right to abortion or require the funding of abortion.”

But it would also destroy court arguments trying to block the current abortion laws in Kentucky that say abortion is a privacy enshrined in the Kentucky Constitution.

So it’s a very big deal, and while you can’t make predictions based on other states, it shows us that even in red states, people lean toward moderation, especially when it comes to taking one half of the population’s healthcare choices away.

Kansas v. Kentucky

What do the Kansas results really mean in Kentucky? Although both conservative, Kansas, according to the census, is wealthier and better educated with fewer people: about 2.9 million residents compared to Kentucky’s 4.5 million.

David Adkins, the current director of the Council of State Governments in Lexington who served for 12 years as a Republican in the Kansas House and Senate, said his home state has a long tradition of political moderation in Republican politics even as its state legislature has gotten more conservative.

He pointed back to the 1990s, when a group of faith leaders of mainline churches and a number of Republican women in Johnson County, which includes suburban communities on the outskirts of Kansas City, became concerned about the rise of religion in politics. They created a group called the Mainstream Coalition, a bipartisan group that would endorse moderate candidates, with a focus on supporting public schools.

Kansas also has elected women from both parties, including three women governors, for many years “so there is a tradition of a strong women’s voice in public affairs, that perspective informs the debate,” Adkins said.

“What I learned in going door to door as a candidate is that you can’t make assumptions based on geography, religion or age on this issue,” he said. “You meet young women who were vocally pro-life, and older women who lived with the consequences of prohibitions on abortion, who favor abortion rights. Abortion is not an issue easily decided by judicial ruling or legislative enactment — most people don’t want abortion on demand and they don’t want zero exceptions. Figuring out where to draw the line is a challenge.”

More moderation?

Danielle Bell would not comment on the actual strategy that Protect Kentucky Access will be using, but it’s safe to assume that they will follow a path set by Gov. Andy Beshear in his improbable win in 2019 — one that leads through cities, suburbs and university towns where the base is riled up and even registered Republicans are turned off by the idea that government is controlling women’s healthcare choices.

Former legislator Addia Wuchner, who heads up Kentucky Right for Life and is leading the campaign to vote yes on the amendment, said in a press release titled “We’re not in Kansas!” the day after the Kansas vote that it was too soon to analyze.

“The wording on the Kansas ballot was longer than our statement, and that may have been a factor,’ she said in the statement. “In Kentucky, we remain laser-focused on motivating our overwhelmingly pro-life state to turn out and vote ‘Yes for Life’ on Tuesday, November 8th!’’

The Secretary of State’s office reported that in May — after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was leaked — about 8,600 people registered to vote. That’s a sizable chunk, although it’s impossible to know why or how it compares with the year before because of primary voting.

Former Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson said he will be voting yes on the amendment, but thinks the result could be closer than many others believe.

“I do know some Republicans who would generally consider themselves pro-life, but are considering a No vote because they are uncomfortable with a total ban,” he said. “They want there to be exceptions for rape and incest. They also want to make sure that birth control methods such as the Pill or IUDs or procedures like IVF are protected. They’ll still vote for their Republican General Assembly members and in Washington. But they may be a No vote.

“I’m guessing that’s what happened in Kansas. Many of the folks that I’m describing probably voted No in Kansas.”

A fascinating article in the New Yorker pointed out that because so few people pay attention to state legislatures, gerrymandering in state legislative elections has ensured that those bodies become more extreme than many of their constituents. At any rate, we’ll find out for sure if that’s the case here after Nov. 8.

Rep. Nancy Tate, R-Brandenburg, who carried the most recent omnibus bill to curtail abortion, said she was “saddened” by the Kansas vote, but that she believes the GOP supermajority was due to Kentuckians’ strong anti-abortion views. “Our constituents value life and value families and value women,” Tate said to reporters at Fancy Farm. “We have worked hard to be the pace-setter for life in this nation, so I’m confident that constitutional Amendment No. 2 (will pass). That’s been one of our strongest platforms.”

Kansas politicians probably made assumptions about who would come out to vote in a primary with a lot of Republican candidates, and they were wrong. Kentucky politicians clearly thought this amendment in the midterms would bring out the conservative base, and we’ll find out how good that assumption was.

Bell noted that Kentucky does have issues with low turnout, particularly in a mid-term election, but “this is a very motivating issue. If we can connect with an additional 200,000 to 400,000 people who don’t vote in midterms, but they value their own autonomy, then that will make a difference. This is important because changing the Constitution is a very final thing.”

For reproductive rights advocates, Kansas has changed the feeling in Kentucky from despair to very guarded optimism. And in a statewide vote, that can be a big help.

“My inclination, based on my own experiences, is that one shouldn’t extrapolate too much about Kansas for Kentucky, but I can understand why those on the pro-choice side of the culture wars, might want to see Kansas as a sign of hope in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned.”

Herald-Leader reporter Austin Horn contributed to this article.