As North Carolina gets grayer, will its politics grow redder? | Opinion

North Carolina is getting older as more than 100,000 North Carolinians turn 65 every year.

Michael Cline, North Carolina’s state demographer, told me, “We will see faster growth in the older ages than all other age groups.” In less than 10 years, it’s projected that the state will have more people 65 and older than children (under 18).

This often overlooked demographic surge could have implications for the state’s politics. Since older white voters tend to support Republicans, will a demographically grayer North Carolina also mean a politically redder North Carolina?

A recent report by WFAE Radio explored whether the increasing, mostly white retiree population in Brunswick County and other coastal counties is one reason Democrats struggle to win statewide. The report quoted an adviser to Republican Ted Budd who said Budd won November’s U.S. Senate election in part by doing well “any place there are retirees.”

While an influx of retirees is increasing Republican support in some counties, Cline noted that increases among older residents in counties that favor Democrats could offset that trend.

Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political science professor who studies state voting patterns, said more retirees will not change the state’s balance of red and blue voters. Instead, he said it will deepen the divide as older people moving into the state sort themselves into places compatible with their politics.

“What I think it means is migration-induced growth is going to lead to increased geographic calcification. So, blue (counties) getting bluer, red getting redder and the state remaining pretty purple,” he said.

Cooper also said, “It’s just not true that older people are overwhelmingly voting Republican.” Older Black voters generally vote Democratic and even older white voters vary. He pointed to Buncombe County, a popular retiree destination that’s also a Democratic stronghold. He said, “In Buncombe County, you can’t walk down the street without seeing 15 retirees and the Republicans are in no danger of taking over Buncombe County politics anytime soon.”

Asher Hildebrand, an associate professor at Duke’s Sanford School of Public policy and a former chief of staff to Democratic Rep. David Price, agreed that a rise in conservative white voters in some counties is being offset by more progressive voters in blue counties. But he said a growing number of conservative voters in counties popular with retirees and in areas adjacent to urban counties is having a political effect. It’s complicating what many Democrats expected to be North Carolina’s inexorable, urban-driven transition to a blue state.

“Demography may be destiny, but it’s happening at much slower pace than many of us hoped and expected and one reason for that is because of these rapidly growing areas like Brunswick County, which have had an influx of white, older and more Republican voters,” he said.

If an aging population won’t immediately change the state’s political character, it should alter its legislative priorities. The Republican-led legislature needs to look beyond tax cuts and invest more in what older residents will need in areas such as housing, health care, transportation, recreation and community connections.

Heather Burkhardt, executive director of the North Carolina Coalition on Aging, told me North Carolina should respond to its growing older population by adopting – and funding – a plan similar to California’s Master Plan for Aging.

“It’s way overdue that we start paying attention to this,” she said. “We’ve known this is coming for a long time and it has been relatively ignored. Now it’s staring us in the face. It’s time for us to do something.”

Whether North Carolina will trend red or blue as its population grows is unknown, but it clearly is turning grayer. The state needs to overcome its political differences and address the challenges that face aging Democrats, Republicans and the unaffiliated alike.

Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-829-4512, nbarnett@ newsobserver.com