NOAA predicts 'above-normal' 2024 hurricane season in new outlook. What it means for Texas
It’s predicted to be a rough hurricane season this year. The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30 each year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2024 hurricane season outlook Thursday and explained the climate factors that influence hurricane development.
Meteorologists are predicting more than double the average number of tropical cyclones due to La Niña and near-record warm ocean temperatures.
According to Yale Climate Connections, hotter oceans could lead to more powerful storms this year.
Here’s what that means for Corpus Christi and other Texas cities near the gulf.
What to expect this 2024 hurricane season
The NOAA predicts between 17 and 25 named storms this season, with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Forecasters also predict between 4 to 7 major hurricanes, classified as category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation," the NOAA said in their outlook.
What is rapid intensification in hurricanes?
According to forecasters from Colorado State University, record-setting sea surface temperatures alone do not ensure a busy hurricane season, but they significantly impact it.
This could mean more powerful hurricanes, also known as rapid intensification.
The National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period. This rapid change can transform a relatively weak storm into a major hurricane, leading to increased threats to life and property due to stronger winds, higher storm surges, and more intense rainfall.
Hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean waters. Higher sea surface temperatures can provide more energy to fuel the storm's growth.
What are water temperatures right now around Texas?
According to Yale Climate Connections, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean are now hotter than any previous late May on record. The extent of marine heat surpasses the previous late May record set in 2005 — a year known for one of the most active and destructive hurricane seasons in modern history.
In 2005, Hurricane Rita reached Category 5 strength before eventually weakening to a Category 3 hurricane as it made landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. The storm caused massive power outages, widespread damage, and 59 deaths. Its approach caused one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history, according to NOAA.
Live storm tracker: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Names for the 2024 hurricane season
The NHC has listed names for the upcoming hurricane season.
Here is the list of hurricane names in alphabetical order:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
What can Texans do to prepare for the hurricane season?
Here are some key things you should do and items you should have in case a hurricane hits your city. Be sure to have a disaster kit and an evacuation plan.
When is #HurricaneSeason in Texas? #txwxhttps://t.co/0sEojGBj2Wpic.twitter.com/eiJeFAaIWB
— Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) (@TexasTDI) May 16, 2024
Water: one gallon per person, per day
Non-perishable food like canned or dry foods
A flashlight
A battery-powered or hand-crank radio
Extra batteries
First aid kit
Prescription medications and medical items
A multi-purpose tool that includes a screwdriver, a knife and pliers
Sanitation and personal hygiene items such as wet wipes
Copies of personal documents like medication lists, medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies
Cellphone with chargers and/ or a portable battery bank
Family and emergency contact information
Extra cash
Sleeping bag or warm blanket
Maps of your area
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NOAA predicts up to 13 hurricanes in 2024. What it means for Texas