No more NJ gas-powered new car sales by 2035: Will Gov. Murphy's ban be practical?

New Jersey will require car makers to offer an increasing percentage of new zero-emission vehicles for sale in the state beginning with model year 2027 and ramp up until they make up all new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035, the Murphy administration said Tuesday.

Gov. Phil Murphy and environmental activists said the rule, known as Advanced Clean Cars II, would help the state improve air quality and fight climate change, even as business groups and critics said the state doesn't have the infrastructure in place to support it.

"As New Jersey transitions to a zero-emission vehicle future, we will improve our quality of life and public health," Department of Environmental Protection Commissioner Shawn M. LaTourette said in a statement. "At the same time, we will reduce climate pollutants from the transportation sector, the greatest source of planet-warming pollution in New Jersey and the nation.”

The Murphy administration proposed the rule in July, speeding up the state's transition from gas-powered vehicles to EVs. It announced its decision Tuesday after a public comment period. And the rule is expected to be published Dec. 18, replacing the previous goal that called for 85% of new vehicles sold in the state be zero-emission by 2040.

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Since the rule is an administrative effort, not a law passed by the state Legislature, it could be changed by a future administration: Murphy is term-limited and will leave office after the 2025 election.

Left alone, it could result in a dramatic increase in the number of zero-emission vehicles for sale. Electric vehicles (EVs) account for less than 10% of all new vehicle sales. The state as of June had 123,551 registered EVs and hybrids, twice as many as there were in 2021, but just a fraction of the total 2.5 million cars registered in New Jersey.

Consumers wouldn't be required to buy EVs. But car makers would need to increase the percentage of new light-duty vehicles available for sale to 43% of all vehicles for model year 2027, which would increase gradually until all are EVs by 2035.

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'The whole thing will fall apart'

The decision drew swift reaction from critics who said the state isn't prepared for such a fast shift. The New Jersey Business and Industry Association, a trade group, said New Jersey needs more charging stations both at home and on the roads. It needs more electric capacity. It needs more technicians to install the infrastructure. And the cost would make the state less competitive.

"If consumers aren't buying them, car dealers won't accept them and the whole thing will fall apart," said Ray Cantor, deputy chief government affairs officer for the NJBIA.

Jim Appleton, president of NJ CAR, which represents car dealers, said the Murphy administration's approach would backfire, driving up prices and forcing consumers to hold onto older, gas-powered vehicles longer or shop out-of-state.

"If consumers cannot afford an EV or it doesn’t meet their family needs, they simply won’t buy an EV here," Appleton said.

New Jersey becomes the 11th state to adopt the Advanced Clean Cars II program, a regulation designed to reduce smog-causing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the state's dirtiest sector, transportation. New York adopted the rule last year.

Advocates said the move, coming as the world is on pace for record-setting temperatures, will have far-reaching impact. It is expected to lower premature deaths and hospital visits thanks to cleaner air. And consumers can save money in fuel.

'This is the time to reduce climate pollution'

"This is a big moment for cleaner cars in New Jersey," said Doug O’Malley, director of Environment New Jersey, an advocacy group. "Electric vehicles are reaching an inflection point and as we are likely experiencing the hottest year on record yet, this is the time to reduce climate pollution.”

Still, the transition to EVs is likely to be a jolt for consumers. The state is designed to accommodate gas-powered vehicles. And motorists here don't exactly embrace change; they don't even pump their own gas.

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EV owners will need to think of their vehicles more like a smart phone, charging overnight at home and stopping at charging stations at restaurants, malls or convenience stores to charge up. But the process for now is time-consuming.

EV owners have three options to charge their vehicles from empty to 80%: Level 1, in which they plug into a common residential outlet, can take 40 hours. Level 2, which provides more electricity, can take four to 10 hours; and fast chargers, which can take 20 minutes to an hour.

New Jersey has 2,016 Level 2 chargers, surpassing the goal of 1,000 that it established in 2020. And it has 932 fast chargers. But more than 600 of the fast chargers are owned by Tesla and can't be used by EVs not made by Tesla. (Tesla has agreed to open its network of fast chargers to non-Tesla EVs beginning in 2024.)

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'The demand is just not there'

Some car dealers have begun making upgrades to their stores, but wonder if consumers will set aside "range anxiety" — worries that they will run out of power while they are away from home — and buy EVs.

To prepare for the new mandate, Pine Belt in Lakewood, which has four dealerships, recently spent $300,000 per store to install EV charging stations, owner Rob Sickel said.

Sickel said the company sells two models that are 100% electric, the Chevrolet Volt and the Subaru Solterra, but demand for them has been slow, mainly because consumers are nervous that they will run out of power while they are away from home.

"The demand is just not there," Sickel said. "Some people are thinking, 'Oh car dealers are against EVs.' That's not it at all. We just want to sell products that our customers want. At this point in time our customers don't want EVs at the level that the government wants them to, so it's a little difficult. I think it's a little too aggressive what they are looking to do."

Michael L. Diamond is a business reporter who has been writing about the New Jersey economy and health care industry for more than 20 years. He can be reached at mdiamond@gannettnj.com.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Is New Jersey ban on gas-powered car sales by 2035 practical?