How No. 8 Kentucky and Northern Illinois match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (3-0, 1-0 SEC) and Northern Illinois Huskies (1-2, 0-0 MAC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Other than throwing two interceptions, Kentucky senior Will Levis (882 passing yards on 61% completions, six touchdown passes vs. four picks) threw the ball well in UK’s 31-0 victory over FCS foe Youngstown State last week. The 6-foot-3, 232-pound redshirt senior from Madison, Conn., completed 27 of 35 for 377 yards with two TD tosses while making some impressive, “off-platform” throws. “He made some amazing throws again on Saturday. Really, the talent just jumps out at you,” UK Coach Mark Stoops says of Levis.

▪ Northern Illinois starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi was 7-of-7 passing for 79 yards and a touchdown last week when an injury forced him to leave what became a 38-28 home loss to Vanderbilt. The 6-foot-3, 227-pound redshirt senior, a transfer from Michigan State, is completing 65.1 percent of his passes and has thrown for 530 yards with five TDs and one pick. After Lombardi departed, backup quarterback Ethan Hampton went 12-of-19 passing for 124 yards and two touchdowns vs. Vandy. On Tuesday, NIU Coach Thomas Hammock said the Huskies “got better news than we anticipated” about Lombardi’s injury. NIU “has the rest of the week to figure out” its QB situation for UK, Hammock said.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Running backs

▪ With Kentucky star Christopher Rodriguez (2,739 career rushing yards) unavailable for one more game due to a suspension, senior Kavosiey Smoke (178 yards, one TD, 4.6 yards per carry) and redshirt freshman La’Vell Wright (62 yards, 3.1 ypc) remain atop the depth chart. Smoke, a 5-9, 209-pound product of Wetumpka, Ala., ran for 66 yards on 18 carries in the win over YSU. Wright, a 6-foot, 219-pound North Hardin product, had 21 yards on five carries vs. the Penguins but also lost a fumble at the end of a 9-yard run.

▪ NIU sophomore Antario Brown (203 yards rushing, three TDs, 5.0 ypc) had a 51-yard touchdown run vs. Vandy but gained only 9 yards on his seven other carries vs. the Commodores. Last season, the 5-10, 218-pound sophomore from Savannah, Ga., averaged 6.6 ypc while running for 538 yards and five TDs. A third-year sophomore, Harrison Waylee (152 yards, one TD, 4.2 ypc) ran the ball 17 times against Vanderbilt, but averaged only 3.1 yards per carry for 52 yards. Last season, the Johnston, Iowa, product ran for 574 yards, an average of 5.7 ypc, before an arm injury ended his season after only five games.

Advantage: Even.

Wide receivers

▪ Kentucky true freshman Dane Key (13 catches, 226 yards, three TDs) is off to a stellar start. The 6-3, 194-pound former Frederick Douglass High School star caught six passes for 90 yards and a TD vs. Youngstown State. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson (13 catches, 202 yards) also had six catches (for 66 yards) vs. YSU and is tied with Key for the team lead in receptions. Chris Lewis, a 6-4, 202-pound redshirt freshman, caught his first college TD vs. Youngstown State, a 2-yard catch on a fade pattern. Mark Stoops was not happy with the blocking of the wideouts. “They’re going to learn (to block) or they won’t be catching passes,” Stoops vows.

▪ Northern Illinois lost star wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph (51 catches, 892 yards, seven TDs in 2021) to a non-contact knee injury in the preseason. In his absence, redshirt senior wideout Cole Tucker, a homegrown, 6-foot-2, 195-pound product of DeKalb, Ill., leads the Huskies with 15 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns. Tucker had two TD catches, including a 70 yarder, vs. Vanderbilt. With 13 catches for 149 yards, FIU transfer Shemar Thornton, a 5-11, 191-pound senior, has been a useful addition. Illinois State transfer Kacper Rutkiewicz has only six catches (for 62 yards) but three have gone for TDs.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Tight ends

▪ Kentucky senior Brenden Bates, a 6-5, 264-pound Cincinnati product, had two catches for 46 yards vs. Youngstown State. He now has four receptions for 63 yards and a TD in 2022. Keaton Upshaw, a 6-6, 246-pound senior from Lima, Ohio, also caught two balls vs. YSU, which went for 16 yards. Upshaw has four catches for 50 yards on the season.

▪ A redshirt senior, Northern Illinois’ Liam Soraghan has three catches for 39 yards and caught a 13-yard TD in NIU’s season-opening 34-27 win over Eastern Illinois. Tristen Tewes, a 6-3, 251-pound redshirt sophomore, has one catch for 2 yards.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Offensive linemen

▪ Kentucky center Eli Cox is making the transition to a new position after starting at right guard in 2021. “He is doing a pretty good job, and he can be a really strong leader,” Mark Stoops says. UK was not happy with the play of the left side of its offensive front, tackle Kenneth Horsey and guard Jager Burton, vs. YSU. “We didn’t play to our standard this week on that side at all,” Stoops said. On the season, UK has surrendered 11 sacks and 19 tackles for loss.

▪ Northern Illinois has given up only one QB sack and 14 tackles for loss in the first three games. The starters on the right side of the NIU offensive front, tackle Nolan Potter, a 6-6, 309-pound redshirt junior, and guard Logan Zschernitz, a 6-3, 319-pound redshirt sophomore, were both tabbed preseason All-MAC First Team by the Phil Steele College Football Preview. Left tackle Marques Cox, a 6-6, 309-pound redshirt junior, has started 31 straight games.

Advantage: Northern Illinois.

Defensive linemen

▪ After trimming down from 318 pounds last season to 281 this year, Kentucky tackle Octavious Oxendine leads UK defensive linemen with eight tackles. The 6-1 junior from North Hardin also has two QB hurries. “He is quicker and playing more explosive,” Mark Stoops says.

▪ Northern Illinois redshirt senior end Izayah Green-May, a 6-6, 242-pound transfer from Wisconsin, had a QB hurry vs. Vandy and had two TFL and a sack in a 38-35 loss at Tulsa in week two. Tackle James Ester, a 6-3, 295-pound redshirt sophomore, has four tackles and half a QB sack.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Linebackers

▪ Kentucky OLB/rush end J.J. Weaver suffered what appeared to be a left elbow injury on his third play against Youngstown State and is not expected to be available this week. In Weaver’s absence, true freshmen Alex Afari and Keaten Wade are expected to get more run. A Cincinnati product, the 6-2, 203-pound Afari is tied for fifth on the UK team in tackles with 11 and has 2.5 TFL. A Spring Hill, Tenn., product, the 6-5, 237-pound Wade has eight tackles, half of a QB sack and a pass breakup. With Weaver out, super-senior Jordan Wright (10 tackles, four TFL, a forced fumble, an interception and a QB hurry in two games) shifts from SLB to OLB/rush end.

▪ Northern Illinois sophomore Daveren Rayner, a 6-3, 208-pound sophomore, leads the Huskies in tackles (32). Kyle Pugh, a 6-foot, 226-pound super-senior, is an eighth-year player. Pugh, who has 23 tackles in 2022, arrived in college in 2015 and redshirted. He suffered season-ending injuries in 2017 (ruptured bicep tendon), 2019 (shoulder) and 2021 (torn ACL). Thus, Pugh has had his playing eligibility extended by various injury-hardship waivers and the NCAA-mandated “free COVID-19 year.”

Advantage: Kentucky.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky cornerback Carrington Valentine had a big game vs. Youngstown State. The 6-foot, 194-pound junior from Cincinnati saved two TDs by breaking up one Penguins pass into the end zone and intercepting another. In his first start in place of the injured Jalen Geiger, safety Jordan Lovett, a 6-2, 202-pound redshirt freshman from North Hardin, had three tackles and a pass breakup vs. YSU.

▪ Northern Illinois cornerback Jordan Gandy leads the Huskies in pass breakups (two). The 5-10, 182-pound junior, a transfer from South Dakota State, also has 15 tackles and a fumble recovery. Cornerback Eric Rogers, a 6-2, 184-pound sophomore, leads the Huskies in interceptions with two.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky’s Martez Thrower blocked a punt vs. Youngstown State, UK’s second punt block of the season. Place-kicker Matt Ruffolo hit a 25-yard field goal last week. On the season, the super-senior is 6-of-7 on FGAs with a long make of 50 yards. Punter Colin Goodfellow averaged 41.7 yards on three kicks vs YSU, and twice pinned the Penguins inside the 20. On the season the super-senior is averaging 38.9 yards on 10 kicks.

▪ Northern Illinois place-kicker John Richardson is 2-of-4 on field goals with a long of 43 yards. Richardson is only 1-of-3 from outside the 40-yard-line. NIU successfully executed an onside kick that led to a touchdown in the Huskies’ loss at Tulsa in week two, with Richardson recovering his own kick. Punter Tom Foley is averaging 45.8 yards a kick.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 38, Northern Illinois 20.