How No. 4 Kentucky and No. 2 Gonzaga match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (3-1) and the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs (2-1) match up at each position for Sunday’s men’s college basketball game at Spokane Arena — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Kentucky freshman Cason Wallace (12.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 3.3 steals) is one of three guards who John Calipari started in UK’s 106-63 strafing of South Carolina State on Thursday night. A 6-foot-4, 193-pound Dallas product, Wallace utilized a big stage in UK’s 86-77 double-overtime loss to Michigan State in Tuesday’s Champions Classic to show the nation his all-around skill. Against the Spartans, Wallace had 14 points, five rebounds, five assists and tied a UK school record with eight steals.

▪ Gonzaga junior Julian Strawther (14.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 41.7% treys, team-high six steals) likely would have been a second-round selection in the 2022 NBA Draft had he left in his name. Instead, the 6-7, 205-pound swingman returned for this third college season. The Las Vegas product just missed a double-double (13 points, nine rebounds) in the Zags’ 64-63 win over Michigan State last weekend, though he did not shoot well (4-for-14 on field goals, 1-for-5 on treys). In Gonzaga’s 93-74 loss at No. 11 Texas on Wednesday night, Strawther went for 13 points and six boards, but turned the ball over four times.

Advantage: Gonzaga.

Power forward

▪ UK’s Jacob Toppin (10.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, seven assists vs. three turnovers) has played with energy, but the 6-9, 205-pound senior has yet to get his shot dialed in this season. A 55.6% shooter a season ago, the Brooklyn, N.Y., product is making 40% (16 of 40) from the field, 25% (2 of 8) on three-point attempts and 58.3% (7 of 12) from the foul line. In the MSU loss, Toppin had 10 points and five rebounds and made 3 of 8 shots.

▪ Gonzaga’s Anton Watson (7.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 57.1% FGs, 57.1% FTs) is a 6-8, 225-pound senior and a hometown product from Spokane. Challenged entering the season by Bulldogs Coach Mark Few to be more assertive, Watson had eight points on 3-of-6 shooting in the loss at Texas. However, Watson did not try a field goal in the win over Michigan State and finished with three points.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Center

▪ Kentucky star Oscar Tshiebwe (14.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 52.2% FGs) made a boffo return to college hoops in the loss to Michigan State after missing the first two games of the season after undergoing a preseason surgical procedure on his right knee. Against MSU, the 6-9, 260-pound senior had 22 points, 18 rebounds and five blocked shots. There was some rust in his game, as Tshiebwe had five turnovers, fouled out and was part of a defensive breakdown that allowed Michigan State to send the game to the first overtime with a wide-open dunk. Tshiebwe’s low-post showdown with Gonzaga star Drew Timme might be the most-anticipated individual matchup in college hoops in 2022-23. Before he transferred from West Virginia, Tshiebwe went against Timme and the Zags once before. On Dec. 2, 2020, Tshiebwe had 14 points and nine rebounds before fouling out in 21 minutes in an 87-82 Gonzaga win over the Mountaineers.

▪ Gonzaga’s Drew Timme (20.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 60.5% FGs, 55.6% FTs) is such a skilled low-post offensive presence, he has drawn comparisons to former Boston Celtics great Kevin McHale. The 6-10, 235-pound senior dominated Michigan State with 22 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots. Timme had 18 points and nine boards in the loss at Texas but also turned the ball over five times. In the matchup against Oscar Tshiebwe when the UK big man was still at West Virginia, Timme had 17 points and three rebounds while making 7 of 17 shots.

Advantage: Even.

Shooting guard

▪ As expected, former Covington Catholic star CJ Fredrick (14.0 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 50% FGs, 40% treys) has given Kentucky effective perimeter shooting and ball movement from the wing. The 6-3, 185-pound redshirt senior did not have his best game in the loss to Michigan State, making only 2 of 7 shots, 1 of 6 treys, and finishing with five points in 32 minutes. Fredrick has experience vs. Gonzaga: A transfer from Iowa, Fredrick had eight points and two assists in 23 minutes when the then-No. 3 Hawkeyes lost to the then-No. 1 Zags 99-88 on Dec. 19, 2020.

▪ Gonzaga’s Rasir Bolton (9.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 42.9% FGs, 50% treys) began his college career with a season at Penn State, then played two years at Iowa State and is now on his second season with the Zags. A 6-3, 185-pound super-senior, Bolton has never averaged less that 11.2 points for a full college season. The Petersburg, Va., product has not shot well so far this season against high-level competition, going a combined 5 of 16 vs. Michigan State (2 of 7) and Texas (3 of 9).

Advantage: Even.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky’s Sahvir Wheeler (11.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 9.7 assists) is off to a strong start to his senior season as a distributor. After missing the season opener due to injury, the 5-9, 180-pound Houston product has 29 assists vs. only five turnovers through three games. In the loss to Michigan State, Wheeler came off the bench to play 40 minutes and scored 16 points and had eight assists vs. three turnovers. Often doubted as a shooter, Wheeler is making 42.3% from the field, 33.3% on treys and 80% from the foul line.

▪ Gonzaga’s Nolan Hickman (8.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists) originally signed with Kentucky before changing his mind after the coaches who had primarily recruited him, Joel Justus and Tony Barbee, left the UK staff. Subsequently, the Seattle product landed with the nearby Zags. Through three games this season, the 6-2, 180-pound sophomore has shot the ball relatively well, making 47.6% of his field-goal attempts and 44.4% on three-pointers. However, Hickman’s ball security has not been stellar, as the guard has as many turnovers (eight) as assists. An ankle injury suffered late in the loss to Texas makes Hickman’s status for the UK game uncertain.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Bench

▪ Kentucky’s John Calipari seems to still be figuring out how to deploy Antonio Reeves. The 6-5, 205-pound transfer from Illinois State, a senior, is averaging 14.0 points and has made 14 of 28 treys, but he logged only 22 minutes of court time in the Michigan State loss. … Junior Lance Ware (5.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, six steals) had a career-high 12 points in the rout of South Carolina State. … Freshman forward Chris Livingston (7.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 45.5% FGs, 37.5% treys) and frosh center Ugonna Onyenso (5.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, team-high 10 blocked shots) have each played well so far.

▪ Gonzaga’s Malachi Smith (9.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, team-high 6 steals) is a 6-4, 205-pound guard who transferred from Chattanooga. The Belleville, Ill., product was the 2021-22 Southern Conference Player of the Year after averaging 19.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists. … A transfer from LSU, Efton Reid, a 7-foot, 240-pound sophomore, played against UK twice last season. The Richmond, Va., product had two points and five rebounds in LSU’s 65-60 win over the Cats in Baton Rouge; he had five points and two boards in UK’s 71-66 victory over the Tigers in Rupp Arena. … A 6-5, 180-pound product of Omaha, Neb., Hunter Sallis (5.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 35.7% FGs, 20% treys) is a player in whose recruitment Kentucky was involved.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Intangibles and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Gonzaga 1-0 — an 80-72 victory for Tubby Smith’s Wildcats over Mark Few’s Bulldogs in the 2002-03 Maui Classic consolation game.

▪ Since the start of the 2019-20 season, UK is 8-13 vs. teams ranked in the AP Top 25.

▪ Over the same time frame, Gonzaga is 15-5 in such games.

▪ With both teams having taken losses in the past week, each should be playing with ample motivation.

▪ For Gonzaga, playing in the municipal Spokane Arena (basketball capacity of 12,210) rather than the on-campus McCarthey Athletic Center (6,000) might not provide the same level of comfort. It does mean that, roughly, twice as many fans will see the game — and it seems safe presume most of them will be rooting for the Zags.

Advantage: Gonzaga.

Prediction

Kentucky 85, Gonzaga 82.