How No. 22 Kentucky and No. 16 Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats (4-2, 1-2 SEC) and No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-1, 2-1 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky senior Will Levis (97-of-141 passing for 1,405 yards with 12 touchdown passes vs. four interceptions) stood on the sidelines in a gray track suit with a therapeutic boot on his left foot during UK’s dispiriting 24-14 loss to South Carolina last week. On the SEC coaches teleconference Wednesday, UK Coach Mark Stoops said of Levis, “Right now, it seems like he’ll be healthy (for Saturday night) barring any setbacks.” In UK’s 31-17 loss at Mississippi State in 2021, Levis threw three interceptions. In the absence of Levis vs. South Carolina, former Somerset High School star Kaiya Sheron made his first career start. The 6-foot-3, 208-pound redshirt freshman completed 15 of 27 passes for 178 yards with two TDs and one pick. “I thought he made some really good throws,” Stoops said of Sheron. “He made some poor decisions on where his eyes were that led to bad plays and led to sacks.”
▪ Mississippi State’s Will Rogers leads the FBS in passing yards with 2,110 and has thrown 22 touchdown passes vs. only three interceptions. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound product of Brandon, Miss., carved up the Kentucky pass defense last season, completing 36 of 39 passes for 344 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. Two seasons ago in Mississippi State’s 24-2 loss to Kentucky in Lexington, Rogers relieved an ineffective KJ Costello and went 9-of-15 passing for 43 yards with two interceptions. Rogers needs two passing TDs to pass Dak Prescott (70) for the most in MSU history.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Running backs
▪ In his second game of 2022, Kentucky star Christopher Rodriguez (198 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4.8 yards per carry) was a bright spot in the otherwise dreary showing vs. South Carolina. The 5-foot-11, 224-pound senior ran for 126 yards on 22 carries. Now at 2,938 career rushing yards, “C-Rod” needs 59 more to pass Rafael Little (2,996) for fourth on the all-time UK rushing list. Against South Carolina, junior JuTahn McClain played well for a second straight game, rushing for 19 yards on three carries and catching a 10-yard touchdown pass.
▪ A 6-foot, 215-pound junior, Mississippi State’s Dillon Johnson (402 rushing yards, three TDs, 6.0 ypc; 27 catches, 199 yards) ran for 100 yards and two TDs in MSU’s 40-17 thrashing of Arkansas last week. It was the first time in the pass-happy Mike Leach coaching era that State has had a 100-yard rusher. Last year vs. UK, Johnson ran for 41 yards and two TDs and caught four passes for 30 yards. A 5-10, 205-pound junior, Jo’quavious Marks (245 rushing yards, five TDs, 4.7 ypc; 23 catches, 140 yards) has caught a pass in 29 straight games. In the win over UK last year, Marks ran for 58 yards and a TD and caught nine passes for 57 yards.
Advantage: Even.
Wide receivers
▪ Redshirt freshman Chauncey Magwood (six catches, 100 yards, one TD) caught two passes for 37 yards in the loss to South Carolina. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson leads UK in receptions (25) and receiving yards (392) and is tied for the lead in TD catches (three). True freshmen Dane Key (19, 231, 3) and Barion Brown (17, 288, 2) both caught two passes vs. South Carolina.
▪ Mississippi State spreads the wealth. MSU has six players — four wideouts and two running backs — with more than 20 catches. A 6-5, 205-pound redshirt senior, Caleb Ducking (28 catches, 322 yards, seven TDs) has a nose for the end zone. A 6-2, 200-pound sophomore, Rara Thomas (21, 368, 3) is a big-play threat. Rufus Harvey (27, 271, 2) and Lideatrick Griffin (20, 239, 1) are also capable.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Tight ends
▪ Ex-Bowling Green High School star Jordan Dingle (nine catches, 107 yards, two touchdowns) caught his second TD pass of the season, from 16 yards out, vs. South Carolina. Senior Brenden Bates (10, 99, 1) had two catches for 19 yards vs. the Gamecocks.
▪ A 6-3, 200-pound graduate student, Mississippi State “H receiver” Austin Williams has been a productive part of the Bulldogs passing attack. The product of Ocean Springs, Miss., has 12 catches for 107 yards and three TDs.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Offensive linemen
▪ After Kentucky starting right tackle Jeremy Flax suffered an apparent leg injury late in the loss at Mississippi two weeks back, redshirt sophomore Deondre Buford made his first career start vs. South Carolina. UK continued to struggle in pass protection, allowing six sacks vs. the Gamecocks. Kentucky now stands No. 129 out of 131 FBS teams in sacks allowed with 25.
▪ Mississippi State center LaQuinston Sharp is the anchor of the Bulldogs’ offensive front. The 6-3, 305-pound graduate student is the only MSU lineman starting in the same position he played in 2021. Sharp is playing his position well, too, having already been named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week twice in 2022.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Defensive linemen
▪ Kentucky defensive tackle Octavious Oxendine led UK D-linemen vs. South Carolina with three tackles. True freshman tackle Deone Walker had two stops. Of Kentucky’s nine sacks in 2022, only 1.5 have come from the defensive front three.
▪ Mississippi State nose guard Cameron Young is active. The 6-3, 310-pound redshirt senior has 17 tackles and a pass breakup. Young had four tackles and an interceptions vs. UK in 2021. End Jordan Davis, a 6-4, 270-pound grad student, has 12 tackles, a TFL and a forced fumble.
Advantage: Even.
Linebackers
▪ Kentucky SLB Jordan Wright is putting together a strong season. The 6-5, 231-pound super-senior has 31 tackles, seven tackles for loss, three QB hurries, a sack, a forced fumble, an interception and a pass breakup. Two seasons ago, when UK intercepted six MSU passes in a 24-2 win, Wright returned one of them 8 yards for a TD. MLB D’Eryk Jackson, starting in the absence of the injured Jacquez Jones, had six tackles and two TFL vs. South Carolina. A 6-1, 241-pound junior, Jackson is another who picked off a Mississippi State pass in the 2020 game.
▪ Mississippi State WLB Jett Johnson is one of the SEC’s most prolific tacklers. With 57 stops, the 6-2, 235-pound redshirt junior is fourth in the conference. Johnson had a team-high nine tackles vs. UK last season. MLB Nathaniel Watson plays down hill. The 6-2, 240-pound redshirt senior leads the Bulldogs in sacks (3) and TFL (4.5).
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive backs
▪ Kentucky cornerback Carrington Valentine is second in the SEC in passes defended with eight (seven breakups, one interception). Redshirt freshman Jordan Lovett has been solid since an injury to Jalen Geiger moved the North Hardin product into the starting free safety role. Lovett has 24 tackles, two pass breakups and a TFL.
▪ Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes leads the SEC in passes defended with (10) and is tied for third in the FBS in interceptions with four. A season ago, Forbes broke up two Kentucky passes and made six tackles. One of three safeties who starts in MSU’s 3-3-5 base defense, Jalen Green has 29 tackles, two pass breakups, a pick and a QB hurry.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Special teams
▪ Over the past two games, Kentucky’s place-kicking unit has failed to convert on two makeable field goals and two PATs. UK also had a punt blocked in the loss to South Carolina. Super-senior place-kicker Matt Ruffolo is 7 of 10 on field-goal attempts with a long of 50. Super-senior punter Colin Goodfellow (41.5 yards a punt average) kicked five times vs. South Carolina for an average of 40 yards. He pinned the Gamecocks inside their 20-yard line twice. True freshman Barion Brown is averaging 47.7 yards on six kickoff returns (which is not enough returns to qualify for the national rankings).
▪ Ben Raybon has been handling the place-kicking for Mississippi State. Raybon is 4 of 6 on field-goal attempts with a long of 53 yards. However, after Raybon missed a 40-yard field goal try and MSU botched two PATs vs. Arkansas, the MSU depth chart now lists Coastal Carolina grad transfer Massimo Biscardi as the No. 1 place-kicker. On 12 punts, George Georgopoulos is averaging 42.1 yards a kick and has pinned foes inside their 20 seven times. Lideatrick Griffin is sixth in the FBS in kickoff returning, averaging 31.1 yards on nine returns.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Mississippi State 30, Kentucky 23.
In comparing Rich Scangarello’s offense to Liam Coen’s, one number tells the story
Blue Preview: Is No. 22 Kentucky ‘playing for its season’ vs. No. 16 Mississippi St.?
