NJ snow forecast: Winter storm watch issued for Monday. How much could we get?

Get ready for the winter whipsaw.

North Jersey saw spring-like conditions Saturday, with a high of around 60 degrees and the potential for showers tonight.

But by late in the day, the National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch for parts of North Jersey starting on Monday night. The agency said a major winter storm could barrel into the region, bringing several inches of snow and "significant travel disruptions."

As of Saturday evening, the "expected snowfall" forecast from Weather Service's Mount Holly office had as much as 4.6 inches falling through much of Bergen and Passaic counties starting Tuesday morning, with 9.8 inches in northern and western areas of Morris and Passaic counties and all of Sussex.

The "high end" forecast pushed that to 6 to 8 inches closer to New York City and as much as 12 to 16 inches in western New Jersey, but the Weather Service said current models put the likelihood of that at about 10%.

"Subtle shifts in track north or south will impact the location of heaviest precipitation and where the rain/snow line sets up," the agency cautioned. "This will be key in determining forecast snowfall amounts, particularly for the city/coast, in an air mass only marginally cold enough to support snow."

Here's what we know as of Saturday evening. Check back with us through the weekend as the forecast develops.

Saturday evening

Forecasts call for tonight to be mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers before 10 p.m. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40s.

Sunday

Sunday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s. But temperatures are expected to dip back to around 30 degrees by nighttime.

Monday and Tuesday

The Weather Service expects Monday to be mostly sunny, with temperatures in the high 40s. Then, temperatures are expected to drop to the low 30s, with rain expected into early Tuesday morning before turning to snow.

"The amount of cold air for the system to work with remains a concern, but there is enough evidence for inland areas to have sufficient cold air to work with for predominantly snow to fall late Monday night into Tuesday," the agency's New York office said.

Correction: The original story incorrectly indicated the type of advisory issued by the National Weather Service on Saturday. It was a winter storm watch.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: North Jersey forecast: Major snowstorm could follow mild weekend