Nikki Haley beats Donald Trump in Johnson County Iowa Caucus by a single vote

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley earned a small victory on Monday night, ending Donald Trump’s chances at a 99-county sweep of the state on caucus night, the nation’s first action of the 2024 election season.

Haley snuck by Trump by a single tally in Johnson County, earning 1,271 votes (35.5 percent) in what may be Trump's only county loss. Former president Trump garnered 1,270 votes, according to preliminary results from the state GOP.

The loss was Trump's only county defeat as of 10:45 p.m. Monday night with 91 percent reporting in an otherwise dominant night.

The Associated Press called the Iowa race just 31 minutes after polls opened at 7:31 p.m. on Jan. 15, declaring Trump the winner in the first-of-the-nation caucuses.

Trump is predicted to win by the widest margin in Iowa Caucus history, holding a 30-point lead over DeSantis with 91 percent of Iowa precincts reporting at 10:45 p.m. The previous record was a 12-point win by Bob Dole in 1996.

DeSantis had garnered 21 percent of the vote with Haley not far behind in third at 19 percent.

Desantis finished a clear third in Johnson County with 21 percent of the vote.

Presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy grabbed a comfortable fourth-place finish in the county, earning 7.2% and ending up clearly in fourth place. Ramaswamy will suspend his campaign and has already backed Trump, he announced to voters late Monday.

More: Vivek Ramaswamy suspends presidential campaign, endorses Donald Trump

Ryan Binkley and Asa Hutchinson hovered around the 0.1% mark in Johnson County. Chris Christie was around the same mark, though he announced he would drop out last week. Two people in the county voted for other candidates not tracked by the state GOP.

Haley nabs rare victory in eastern Iowa

Haley’s second-place finish was largely powered by voters in Iowa City, at the epicenter of the county, where she overwhelmingly picked up victories in the second precinct (50.8%), and the 23rd precinct (61.4%). Voters in Coralville also supported Haley, with 43.2% of voters in the second precinct backing her.

Haley spent much of the summer and fall in third place in the NBC News/Des Moines Register Iowa poll and is projected to finish third on caucus night.

More: Donald Trump cruises to early Iowa Caucuses victory despite spurning Iowa leaders

Trump carries Hills community

Haley carried Johnson County despite garnering little support in one particular rural community.

Forced to brave still snow-covered, icy roads and frigid temperatures, turnout appeared to decline across the county from 2016, the last caucus that did not feature an incumbent.

Still, nearly 75 voters turned out at the Republican caucuses in Hills, Iowa to help kick off the 2024 election season, showing resounding support for former president Trump.

Trump pulled in 56% of caucusgoers inside Stutsman, an agricultural retail store, comfortably leading the way. Ron DeSantis finished nearly 40% behind Trump, with Haley on his heels. Ramaswamy picked up 11.3% of the vote to finish a close fourth.

Ryan Binkley nabbed a vote from one caucusgoer and finished fifth. Asa Hutchinson did not receive support from any of the 71 voters in the Hills, Liberty and Pleasant Valley precinct, roughly eight miles south of Iowa City.

More: A music shop, a bar, a grain elevator: Inside some of Iowa's most unique caucus sites

The economy, safety key for voters in Hills

Leon Van Horn, 67, has lived in Iowa for a half-century. He caucused for Trump on Monday night and said the economy was his top sticking point.

“Everything’s so expensive,” Van Horn said. He was raised by Democrats and even caucused for Hillary Clinton in the run-up to the 2008 presidential election. But after the election of Barack Obama, who he called a “wolf in sheep’s clothing” for broken promises and subsequent economic shortcomings, he felt that Democrats were not doing enough to help keep dollars in his pockets.

“Things were so much better under Trump,” Van Horn said. “Cost of oil, cost of gas… cost of living. Now, it’s insane.”

Van Horn said he doesn’t mind Haley, who finished a distant third behind Trump in Hills but felt she is "too soft on China."

He also wants a president more in control of the border like Trump. Under Biden, Van Horn claimed that 10.6 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border.

The most recent available data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection regarding full-year data shows that number is around 6 million between Fiscal 2021 and Fiscal 2023, a period beginning in the fall of 2020 and running through September 2023. Apprehensions have been lower in Fiscal 2024 through November 2023 than in the past.

Emy Rivera, a native of Puerto Rico, has lived in Iowa for almost 35 years. She said she felt overwhelmingly “secure” when she first arrived in the United States. She never felt like she was in danger. Ever since Trump left office, she said it feels like she sees more arguments and more disagreements and generally feels less safe.

“I pray to god that Trump wins or another Republican,” Rivera said. “I actually went to church this morning and I prayed.”

The next step for Trump, Haley and DeSantis is the New Hampshire primary, which will be held Tuesday, Jan. 24.

Ryan Hansen covers local government and crime for the Press-Citizen. He can be reached at rhansen@press-citizen.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @ryanhansen01.

This article originally appeared on Iowa City Press-Citizen: Iowa Caucus: Nikki Haley narrowly defeats Trump in Johnson County