NHL hockey in Cincinnati: How much to play and are we getting played?

If Cincinnati wants to land a National Hockey League team, it could easily cost $2 billion or more, sports economists told The Enquirer.

But landing a team here won’t easy – or cheap. And there’s plenty of skepticism swirling around the idea of the NHL coming to Cincinnati, sparked by league Commissioner Gary Bettman disclosing on Feb. 2 someone from the region had expressed interest in an expansion team.

“This is insane for variety of reasons,” Victor Matheson, a sports economist with the College of Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts, said. Ohio is not a “dream market” for the NHL and many expansion teams for the league in the past two decades, including the Columbus Blue Jackets, have only been “moderately successful,” he noted. He added the costs to bring the team to Cincinnati could also be prohibitive.

“It seems very unlikely that Cincinnati would be high on their list,” he said.

While the prospect of a new major sports franchise could rejuvenate local calls to replace Cincinnati’s rundown arena, Heritage Bank Center, so far city and other officials are noncommittal. And NHL officials didn’t name the party from Cincinnati that approached them.

Beyond skepticism, there’s also plain old cynicism: Is Cincinnati being used as a decoy to get some other city to bid higher, or to prod a city with an existing team to build a new arena to make sure their team doesn't leave?

“This gives the NHL the ability to play good cop-bad cop. … I think that’s what’s really behind this,” said Moshe Lander, a sports economist with Concordia University in Montreal.

The buzz creates the perception that a team could bolt a hockey city if it can’t get money for upgrades. It also helps the NHL demand more for league expansion fees when it's ready to add teams.

It’s a complicated prospect for the region, here are some pieces to consider:

Drop the puck (and a lot of bucks)!

Did we mention it’s expensive to launch a hockey franchise?

If Cincinnati wants to play, economists say there are two big pricey pieces to figure out first: The NHL will insist on a new arena that could seat 16,000 to 18,000 that could cost $1 billion on its own, and the NHL will want the new team owner(s) to pay a hefty expansion fee – which could also cost $1 billion (or more).

“You're looking at somewhere around $1 billion, perhaps a little more, but no less than $800 million,” J.C. Bradbury, a sports economist at Kennesaw State University in Georgia, said.

As far as the stadium goes, economists say a $1 billion arena would cost $75 million a year in bond payments. Then there’s the debate over who would pay for it. Team owners in huge markets like New York City have covered major arena construction costs. But in smaller markets such as Cincinnati (with fewer fans), local governments typically get pressed to cover part of arena construction – from 50% to 100%, the economists interviewed by The Enquirer said.

A stadium might cost a little less in the Midwest, but local government is still going to be asked to take on tens of millions of dollars in costs.

“Gary Bettman has never found a city he didn’t like (for) a NHL team -- provided that the city took him into an arena,” Andrew Zimbalist, a sports economist with Smith College in Northampton, Massachusetts, said.

Julie Calvert, president of Visit Cincy (formerly known as the Cincinnati USA Convention & Visitors Bureau), said no one in her office had talked with the NHL. She acknowledged that bringing the league to the region would require a new arena, which regional leaders aren’t even sure if they want to pursue at this time.

“There won’t be any NHL team without a new arena – and right now, we’re still discussing the merits of a new arena,” Calvert said.

Currently, the Cincinnati Regional Chamber is overseeing a study on a potential new arena.

Among local leaders hesitant about paying for a new arena: Mayor Aftab Pureval.

“There are a lot of folks in the community who say that it’s (a new arena) critical for economic development… I’m not yet convinced that that’s the case,” Pureval said.

Who wants to own this (and pay the NHL)?

Next, the region will need a wealthy benefactor or group of investors willing to plunk down what could approach or exceed $1 billion expansion fee, sports economists said. Those are typically paid by private investors and the league prefers an individual or small group fronting the cash, but not some large, unwieldy group that could start having disagreements with each other.

The Las Vegas Golden Knights paid $500 million in 2017; the Seattle Kraken paid $650 million in 2021 to join the NHL, according to Forbes.

“You’re not looking at being able to buy in at anything less than $650 million,” Matheson said.

That’s a lot of money and the NHL commissioner didn’t say who reached out to the league about having a team here. Officials with the NHL did not return calls seeking comment for this story.

And so far, nobody local is putting up their hand.

On Forbes’ latest billionaire list, one Cincinnatian was mentioned, Medpace founder and CEO August Troendle. He declined to comment for this article through a spokesperson.

Ditto “no comment” from spokespeople of Total Quality Logistics founder Ken Oaks and American Financial Group co-CEOs Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner.

A spokesperson for John Barrett, the CEO and chairman of Western & Southern Financial Group, said he "has not been approached" for anything involving the NHL.

Is Cincinnati being used as a pawn?

Speculation that Cincinnati might become an NHL hockey town might be getting a big boost from the league itself, economists believe.

While NHL Commissioner Bettman said Feb. 2 the league had no plans “at the moment” to expand or relocate teams, he expressed openness to hearing from future prospective cities, when he listed Cincinnati along with Atlanta, Houston and Kansas City.

Matheson said it makes sense for the NHL to put out a long list of cities to create the impression of intense demand.

“If there is a perception of another bidder, that’s what drives up the price of an expansion franchise,” Matheson said. “You’d much rather (a prospective) team fearing that if they don’t make that big bid that they’re going to lose out their franchise to someone else.”

Using Cincinnati and other non-NHL cities as a stalking horse is also an effective tool when negotiating with local officials for upgrading or replacing stadiums. If local officials fear a team might move elsewhere, terms might become more generous.

Lander noted the Ottawa Senators are in talks with local Canadian officials about moving to an arena closer to the city core.

“This happens all the time … it gives the (team) ownership group leverage to say ‘we’re going to pull the franchise.’”

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Landing an NHL team in Cincinnati won't be easy or cheap