NHL draft lottery: 3 things for Columbus Blue Jackets fans to know
Well, it’s that time of year again for the Blue Jackets.
As they have for the past three years, the Jackets’ front office will huddle in front of television screens with fingers collectively crossed, hoping to see NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly hold up their logo to conclude the league’s draft lottery at the NHL Network’s studios in Secaucus, New Jersey.
More: 6 NHL draft prospects to know: Will Columbus Blue Jackets celebrate with Celebrini?
More likely than not, those hopes will be dashed when the top six picks are revealed. The sun almost never shines on the Blue Jackets in the lottery, which they've never won on the first draw, but hope always springs eternal when the big day arrives.
The stakes aren’t as high as last year, when the Chicago Blackhawks moved up two spots to select a “generational talent” in Connor Bedard, but Boston University freshman Macklin Celebrini is still a shining jewel atop this year’s crop.
This year’s winner will be thrilled. Others will be relieved to gain certainty on where they’ll pick in the first round. The Blue Jackets finished 28th in the NHL's overall standings, giving them the fourth-best odds to win.
For those who will watch how it all unfolds, here are three things to know:
How Columbus Blue Jackets fans can watch the NHL draft lottery
The draw will take place at the NHL Network’s studios prior to the results being revealed by Daly on television. The show airs at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN on cable and ESPN+ via streaming.
Last year, co-host Kevin Weekes accidentally revealed a spoiler alert that Columbus wouldn’t get Bedard as the show went into its final commercial break. That happened because producers and co-hosts are told the results before they’re aired to aid production.
The NHL doesn’t want to hold the draw live on television, but that has become a point of contention for a growing number of fans who’d prefer that method.
What are Columbus Blue Jackets’ odds to win NHL draft lottery?
The Blue Jackets have a 9.5% chance of winning the first lottery draw, which would move to first overall from the fourth slot. Teams in the lottery can only move up a maximum of 11 spots and drop a maximum of two spots. That means the Blue Jackets have a 46% chance of dropping at least one spot, which is the summation of percentage odds of teams 5-14 going into the draw.
The league also conducts a second draw after removing the winner of the first draw. If a team that cannot move all the way up to the top spot wins the first draw, the top pick will be awarded to the San Jose Sharks ― who finished last in the NHL standings and have the highest chance to win it outright (18.5%).
In that scenario, the Sharks and the winner of the first draw will be removed from the field before a second draw is conducted to determine the second pick. The odds attached to that draw are dependent on the outcome of the first draw. For what it’s worth, the Dispatch ran a mock draft order Tuesday on Tankathon and the Blue Jackets moved up three spots to pick Celebrini.
After the first round, picks are determined by reverse standings order. That means the Blue Jackets pick fourth in each round they still have their own picks — third, fourth, fifth and sixth — and they also have the Los Angeles Kings’ pick in the third round (86th overall).
Macklin Celebrini viewed as franchise cornerstone
As first overall picks go, Celebrini isn’t considered a “generational” player like Bedard. There’s no shame in that, either. Bedard’s ability to put the puck in the net is among the most elite of the past decade of drafts, so that’s not a great comparison.
A more comparable player is Adam Fantilli, whom the Blue Jackets selected third overall last summer in a loaded draft class. The 2023 draft, after Bedard, still had up to four or five players who scouts felt could go first overall in other drafts. Fantilli is one of them, and Celebrini’s pedigree is almost a mirror image.
Fantilli is a 6-foot-2, 194-pound center with elite two-way potential. Celebrini is a 6-0, 190-pound center with elite two-way potential. Both are excellent skaters with strong wrist shots and a knack for driving to the net with a 'North-South' playing style.
Fantilli, 19, won the Hobey Baker Award as the NCAA’s top player as a true freshman at Michigan, after posting 30 goals, 35 assists and 65 points in 36 games while leading the Wolverines to the Frozen Four. Celebrini, 17, was the youngest player in the NCAA, became the youngest player to win the Hobey Baker Award and finished his freshman season with 32-32-64 in 38 games while leading the Terriers to the Frozen Four.
Both are Canadians who starred in the U.S. junior ranks for the Chicago Steel of the United States Hockey League before college. Both have older brothers who are defensemen on the same college teams as Fantilli and Celebrini. The biggest differences are two inches in height favoring Fantilli and where they’re from in Canada. Fantilli grew up near Toronto and Celebrini is from Vancouver.
Any NHL team would be ecstatic to add Celebrini, but the Blue Jackets will be over the moon if they can add a second “Fantilli” to further juice their rebuild.
Should they not win the lottery, other options for the Jackets' top pick include: right wing Ivan Demidov (SKA St. Petersburg), defenseman Artyom Levshunov (Michigan State), forward Cayden Lindstrom (Medicine Hat), defenseman Zeev Buium (Denver University), left wing Cole Eiserman (U.S. national program) and defenseman Sam Dickinson (London Knights).
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: 3 things for Columbus Blue Jackets fans to know about 2024 NHL lottery
