NHC not expecting tropical activity on Memorial Day as oppressive heat lingers over Florida
The tropics are expected to remain quiet Monday for the Memorial Day holiday, according to the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center.
No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next two days, the NHC said.
The official start of Hurricane season is June 1 and expected to be busy. Extremely warm water temperatures and La Niña combine for favorable tropical cyclone conditions.
Colorado State University has predicted the probability of a named storm impacting Florida this season at 96%, hurricane impact at 75% and major hurricane impact at 44%.
WeatherTiger chief meteorologist Ryan Truchelut's hurricane season forecast includes:
22-26 tropical storms
10-13 hurricanes
5-8 major hurricanes, which is a Category 3 storm or higher
an 80% chance of at least two U.S. hurricane landfalls in 2024
The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be named Alberto.
Memorial Day weather forecast for Florida
Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected in Florida on Monday. Above-normal temperatures may have some areas see heat indexes soaring to above 100 degrees, with dangerous and oppressive heat remaining for southern Florida.
Daily record highs could be tied or broken in Key West, Port St Lucie, and Melbourne, according to the National Weather Service.
Strong and severe thunderstorms are possible in the Panhandle late Monday morning, afternoon and evening.
Summer heat is expected to linger over the Sunshine State through midweek, while gradual cooling enters the Gulf Coast an approaching cold front inches toward the region.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m., May 27, 2024:
What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Here's NHC's outlook Sunday, based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis:
Tropical wave: A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 01N to 10N near 35W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Abundant moisture S of 10N and diffluent flow east of an upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 03N to 10N between 28W and 38W.
Tropical wave: A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 69W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave has moved into a slightly drier environment per Total Precipitable Water imagery as well as a strong wind shear environment. This has diminished the convection to widely scattered showers over the eastern and central Caribbean.
Gulf of Mexico: High pressure and ridging will continue to dominate across the basin through Friday, thus maintaining a generally weak pressure pattern over the region. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds W of 86W will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds late today, but will resume again Thu evening through Friday night. Seas will be slight to moderate basin-wide during the forecast period. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf today and tonight, followed by gentle to moderate W to NW winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will pulse near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through Wednesday, then pulse to mostly fresh speeds afterward.
Caribbean Sea: High pressure and associated ridging over the W Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and far NW Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will resume tonight and will also develop in the south-central basin as a tropical wave moves over the waters S of Hispaniola. These winds will shift to the SW Caribbean through early Wednesday morning as the tropical wave continues to move westward. Strong gusty winds, lightning and moderate to rough seas will likely accompany this wave. Moderate to fresh winds are forecast for the central and eastern basin the remainder forecast period while gentle to moderate trades will dominate the waters of the NW Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean: A surface trough will move E of the area tonight. Otherwise, high pressure and associated ridging will prevail across most of the area through the week. By tonight, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a weakening cold front that will move across the waters north of 27N Tuesday into midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will precede the front along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
2024 hurricane season: Forecasts all point to a busy season with La Niña and warm ocean temps
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: FL weather: Tropics calm Monday as some areas could see record highs
