The NFL's most unexpected development: Baker Mayfield's revival

Four weeks into the NFL season and the most unexpected development in the entire league — even more than the NFL entering its Taylor Swift Era — is that on Sunday, Baker Mayfield was lecturing his Tampa Bay teammates to guard against … overconfidence.

Yes, the left-for-dead, post-Tom Brady Bucs. Yes, Mayfield, the discarded former Cleveland Brown who no one was certain would even beat Kyle Trask out for the starting job.

Yes, Tampa Bay, sitting at 3-1 heading into a bye week following a resounding 26-9 victory at New Orleans.

“Right now, the narrative is going to flip,” Mayfield said. “We have to keep that [focused] mindset even more so. You can’t change whether people are patting you on the back or talking trash about you.”

Mayfield certainly knows about both. He won a Heisman at Oklahoma. He was the Browns' No. 1 overall draft pick and with fiery, excellent play was heralded as a franchise savior. He became such a national darling, he and his wife Emily lived at the stadium, at least in high-rotation national television commercials.

Then his play faltered, the Browns returned to being the Browns and Mayfield was replaced by Deshaun Watson.

Cleveland was so convinced that Mayfield wasn’t the guy that it dismissed Watson’s off-field issues and outlayed significant trade assets and a potential albatross of a guaranteed contract to get him. (The Browns are 2-2.)

Mayfield was traded out of town for a fifth-rounder and spent part of 2022 in Carolina before getting released and then hooking on late as a stopgap for the injury-decimated Los Angeles Rams. He went just 2-8 as a starter last season.

When he signed a one-year deal with Tampa Bay last offseason, it was seen — to the few who even noticed — as a Bucs franchise in post-Brady rebuild mode taking a flier on a guy. A poor season that set up a high draft pick in a quarterback rich draft wasn’t exactly the worst thing that could happen to Tampa Bay.

The thing is, no matter his struggles and setbacks, no one has ever said Mayfield wasn’t a competitor. So perhaps he was the perfect guy for this team. Las Vegas had Tampa winning 6.5 to 7.5 games this season. The Bucs were a heavy underdog in the NFC South (+325). The spotlight that Brady brought to the Bay had moved on.

Yet here we are.

“We’ve known all along what we have in this building,” Mayfield said. “We’ve been saying that since the offseason. We just have to keep getting better and better.”

Mayfield was talking after a 25-for-32, 246-yard, three touchdown passing performance against the Saints. He added 31 yards rushing and showed plenty of toughness and leadership by getting up after some backbending hits.

The guy isn’t here to just cash a check and hang on in the league. He’s here to win.

“Bake is tough,” head coach Todd Bowles said. “He fits in here. He understands the offense very well. The guys love to play for him and he works for us.”

Mayfield has thrown seven touchdowns against just two interceptions, on pace to challenge his career-best numbers. His 69.9 percent completion percentage and 101.5 QBR are well above the 62.8 and 95.9 he posted in 2020. He’s even avoiding sacks for the first time in his career.

He’s part of a Bucs team getting contributions from across the roster, including the defense on Sunday.

It’s early of course — “Only the first quarter of the season,” Bowles noted. Still, “3-1 is better than 1-3,” the coach acknowledged. If nothing else, a believed to be lost season is anything but.

“It’s a great team,” Mayfield said. “Everybody is on the same page. Everybody is doing their job. It comes down to little details when you are playing against a good team.”

Mayfield may be at his best when he is being doubted. He is a former walk-on at Texas Tech, after all. His game is often based on emotion. When he channels it into fundamentally strong play, he can no doubt be a good NFL quarterback.

Maybe that’s why he was warning everyone against the praise and platitudes that come starting 3-1. The NFC South isn’t scaring anyone and, if anything, winning at New Orleans is the toughest spot in the division.

“I think we have a team of very, very strong-minded men,” Mayfield said. “... It shows I guess just the accountability within our building. Knowing to do your job and not letting outside noise affect you.”

The noise all offseason was dismissive. Now it’s something else.

Maybe Mayfield saw this coming. If so, he’s one of the few. Either way, here on his fourth team in six seasons in what could be considered Act 3, the former No. 1 draft pick is making plays and winning games. The NFL might have been done with Baker, but he certainly wasn’t done with the NFL.