NFL Week 6 picks: Miami Dolphins vs. Panthers, Game of Week, 4 big upsets and all of the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 6 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

PANTHERS (0-5) at DOLPHINS (4-1)

Line: MIA by 13 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 37-13.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Miami Dolphins fans have officially entered an alternate universe. Their long-downtrodden team, which has not won a playoff game since 2000, is really good, is a double-digit favorite for the second week in a row and has the highest-scoring and most-exciting offense in the NFL. Words not said for many years are now leaving Dolfan lips, such as, “Sure hope we don’t get too overconfident against the Panthers.” And, ”Sure hope we’re not looking ahead to the Eagles.” Miami will really miss rookie RB De’Von Achane, out at least four games with a knee injury. Against Carolina, though, the NFL’s last winless team, Raheem Mostert will be plenty vs. a bottom-five scoring defense that is especially soft against the run. I give the Panthers next to zero upset shot. If I were to concoct a victory lane for the Cats, it would be a ground game to keep Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill off the field (unlikely), and a couple of takeaways vs. a Miami team that has eight turnovers. The Panthers’ best hope: Miami being both overconfident and looking ahead to unbeaten Philadelphia on deck. Barring that, Carolina simply does not have the defensive talent to limit Miami’s powerhouse offense, and struggling rookie QB Bryce Young — inspired to go to Alabama by seeing what Tagovailoa did there — does not have the experience or the skill help to capitalize on Miami’s shaky pass defense or to engage and hang in a shootout with Tua’s touchdown machine.

GAME OF THE WEEK

UPSET OF WEEK

LIONS (4-1) at BUCCANEERS (3-1)

Line: DET by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: TB, 23-20.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird, with a smirk indicative of a pun on the way.. “I like the Bucs and I ain’t Lion!” Detroit and Tampa Bay are not teams typically associated with a Game of the Week, but it’s best matchup of Week 6 for combined records, pits two division leaders, adds the sizzle of (we hope) an upset and is otherwise intriguing. Dan Campbell has long-forlorn Detroit aiming for its first playoff berth since 2016 and first playoff win since 1991. And Tampa Bay, with little expected post-Brady, is a nice surprise led by (of all people) Baker Mayfield. Two good stories. Why the upset? Two of Tampa Bay’s three wins have come as underdogs, a role that seems to suit Mayfield. Bucs have won past two meetings with Detroit, are home, and also have the rest/.prep edge from having had a bye last week. “Another factor so deeply embedded in the American psyche is that the Detroit Lions always stink and thus axiomatically will stink again,” notes U-Bird. “Tampa Baaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 6:

Thursday night: @Chiefs (-10 1/2) over Broncos, 27-18: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

Ravens (3-2, -4) over Titans (2-3), 19-17, in London: Another 9:30 a.m. start at London’s Tottenham Hotspur stadium. (By the way, a “hotspur” is not what a cowboy wears while on a horse, but heated. Rather, a hotspur is a rash, impetuous person. Now back to football!) Baltimore has been killing itself with fumbles and pass drops. ”We need to wake up!” scolded TE Mark Andrews. They will here. Ravens’ excellent defense will rule the day, but see Titans covering in a low-points affair.

@Falcons (3-2, -2 1/2) over Commanders (2-3), 24-20: An upset here would hardly feel like one, with Washington rested after playing last Thursday and eager to rebound from that stinker loss to Bears. But make this pick a heavy venue lean. Falcons are 3-0 in ATL this season and on an eight-game win streak when favored in the home dome. Falcs burdened by slow starts but now get a Comms D that has allowed 33-plus points in four straight games.

@Bears (1-4, +2 1/2) over Vikings (1-4), 27-24: Upset! As trade rumors orbit around Kirk Cousins, the NFL’s most disappointing team now must move on without injured star WR Justin Jefferson — a huge loss. Chicago finally ended its 14-game losing streak last Thursday and is ready to ride Justin Fields’ hot hand to end a three-game home losing skid to the Vikings. Chitown’s reawakened pass rush should bother Cousins.

@Bengals (2-3, -2 1/2) over Seahawks (3-1), 26-21: Seattle is coming off a bye, is 2-0 on the road and has an XL-size upset shot. But sticking (anxiously) with Cincy to extend its 8-1 run at home. Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase is mad clicking, with Joe Mixon finding his groove, too. Bengals have underperformed to this point while Seabirds have exceeded expectations, so call this a return-to-the-norm result.

49ers (5-0, -7 1/2) over @Browns (2-2), 27-13: Deshaun Watson (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday and may sit again, with P.J. Walker (not Dorian Thompson-Robinson) on call. Either way, a Browns offense already sans Nick Chubb will struggle mightily vs. San Fran’s majorly great D. Cleveland is off a bye while Niners played Sunday night; no matter. Frans have topped 30 points in all five wins and have No. 1-rated defense. Until someone proved otherwise, consider them unbeatable.

@Jaguars (3-2, -4) over Colts (3-2), 23-20: Battle for AFC South lead is one of only two Week 6 games (Lions-Bucs) with two winning records in play. Jax is back home after an impressive two-game sweep in London and has won eight straight home dates vs. Indy. Jags also topped Nags in Week 1, 31-21. Rematch finds Colts without injured QB Anthony Richardson, although Gardner Minshew will be way-pumped to face his ex-team. Lean IND for the cover.

Saints (3-2, -1 1/2) over @Texans (2-3), 21-16: Saints coming off a brassy 34-0 rout in New England but ought not take Houston lightly, because rookie C.J. Stroud has Texans a minacious home dog. An upset is very much in play here. Stroud, though, faces a very good N’Awlins D that has seven INTs, while Houston’s defense has allowed 30-plus points in three of its past four home games. Saints also on a 4-1 run away from home.

Patriots (1-4, +3) over @Raiders (2-3), 19-16: Upset! New England has been outscored 72-3 in the past two games, the two worst losses in Bill Belichick’s storied career. Mac Jones holds onto his starting QB job by a fraying thread, and Bill’s once-reliable defense has failed him. So why the upset pick? Fair question. Just a hunch, mostly. Vegas is off a short week after playing Monday night, and its bottom-five offense is tonic for Pats’ beleaguered D and presents a low bar for Jones to top.

@Rams (2-3,-7) over Cardinals (1-4), 34-17: Matthew Stafford with the return of Cooper Kupp and with fifth-round rookie surprise Puka Nacua should overwhelm Arizona’s lousy pass defense. The Cardbirds also will struggle on offense with RB James Conner now out. Rams are on an 11-2 series run vs. the division-rival Cacti and should keep that going and comfortably shake off an 0-2 start at home.

Eagles (5-0, -7) @Jets (2-3), 23-18: There are two 5-0 teams left; too soon to wring hands in worry, ‘72 Dolphins. Philly has not been nearly as dominant as San Fran and faces an NYJ squad that seems to have found its pulse. Upset? Nah. Eagles have won six straight trips to Jetsville and have talent edge to make it seven. Two defenses of similar quality, but Birds with the clear advantage in offensive power. But hunch Planes-plus-7 in a points-shy game.

@Bills (3-2, -14 1/2) over Giants (1-4), 37-10: Sunday night stage finds two teams needing a big rebound after Bills got spanked by Jax in London and Giants fell hard in Miami. Like Bills for that bounce, on talent and also health. QB Daniel Jones (neck) and RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) both are iffy, and LT Andrew Thomas remains out. Jones may want to sit, as Buffs’ big pass rush will dominate NYG’s turnstile offensive line. Bills have won last three home games in prime time; make it four.

@Chargers (2-2, +2) over Cowboys (3-2), 34-30: Upset! It’s a shootout at the Monday night corral! Admittedly a risky upset pick because there also is a case for Dallas rebounding big from last week’s humiliation vs. San Fran as Dak Prescott feasts on a Bolts pass D giving up the most air yards in the league. So why the dice roll? LAC is coming off a bye while Dallas played last Sunday night. Justin Herbert is cut out for a shootout. Chargers are on a 4-1 run at home and have won four of past six meetings with Cowboys. And mostly this: Fantasy-stud RB Austin Ekeler says he’s “99 percent” playing Monday night for the first time since a Week 1 ankle injury -- a huge lift for Bolts.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].

OFF THIS WEEK

Packers (2-3; next @Broncos): After loss in Vegas Monday night, Jordan Love’s passer rating stands 28th. It’s early, and he’s only 24, but Love isn’t exactly making Cheeseheads forget Aaron Rodgers just yet.

Steelers (3-2; next @Rams): A nice defense-forged, come-from-behind home win over rival Baltimore has Mike Tomln’s under-radar squad unexpectedly sitting atop the AFC North.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

We were workin’ 9-5 both ways in Week 5 (shoutout Dolly Parton), a nice rebound from a rough week prior for us. Bull’s-eyed our Upset of the Week with Colts beating Titans outright (“Aawwk!”), hit a second upset with Jets winning in Denver, and also had a pair of dogs-with-points on covers by the Bears and Steelers. Hit the Dolphins win close to spot-on as well. It was 31-16; I called it 38-16. Let’s stay on a roll! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Chiefs (-10 1/2) over Broncos, 27-18. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 5: 9-5, .643 overall; 9-5, .643 vs. spread.

Season: 48-30, .615 overall; 41-35-2, .539 vs. spread.