NFL Week 18: Dolphins-Jets, 3 upsets and the rest. Will Miami get one of the last playoff spots?

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 18 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

JETS (7-9) at DOLPHINS (8-8)

Line: NYJ by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 21-16. Upset!

TV: 1 p.m. Fox.

[Playoff impact: High — Dolphins clinch wild card with win and Patriots loss.] It’s like win-and-in for Miami, presuming Fins get the favor they need (and will likely get) from Buffalo against New England. But Dolphins have perilously lost five games in a row and will probably be down to third-string QB Skylar Thompson barring a miraculously healed finger by backup Teddy Bridgewater. Thomspon vs. a strong Jets defense is why the point spread swung to NYJ as a small road favorite. That and the Jets’ earlier 40-17 win against Miami with Thompson taking most of the snaps. It’s still a slap in the face for the Fins, who should be a small favorite at home, where their defense plays appreciably better. The Jets also have lost five in a row with an offense that has devolved into a mess. So it’s two struggling rivals trying to climb out of a hole — one with tangible incentive to do so, the other relegated to a spoiler role. NYJ has lost six trips in a row to Miami. Strong home defense and a big dose of Raheem Mostert should make it seven straight — and earn Miami’s first playoff ticket in six years.

GAME OF THE WEEK

LIONS (8-8) at PACKERS (8-8)

Line: GB by 4 1./2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 28-20.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

[Playoff impact: Maximum — Packers are in with wild card berth if they win — but out on a tiebreaker with a loss no matter other results. Lions are in with a win if Seahawks lose.] A fitting end to the 2022 NFL regular season Sunday in prime time with winner-take-all stakes and Aaron Rodgers at the center of it. Green Bay has won four in row and Detroit four of past five to give themselves a shot. Packers have beaten Lions 17 of past 20 times at home and are as healthy as they’ve been all season. Game also could be meaningless to Detroit except in a spoiler role if Seahawks won earlier Sunday. I doubted Rodgers last week. Lesson learned. Some things are bankable. One of them is Rodgers, on a roll, in prime time, with temps in the 20s in the dead of winter at Lambeau Field.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BUCCANEERS (8-8) at FALCONS (6-10)

Line: ATL by 4.

Cote’s pick: TB, 23-17. Upset!

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

[Playoff impact: Low — Bucs already have clinched NFC South and No. 4 seed.] “AAWWK!” shouts the Upset Bird. “Calling the upset because we expect to see lots of Tom Braaawwwk!” Atlanta being favored presupposes Tom Brady and other Bucs starters will sit. My upset pick says otherwise. Brady says he wants to play. And why wouldn’t he? He’s 10-0 in his career vs. ATL, with 27 TDs and three picks. He’s within striking distance of NFL records for most completions and attempts in a season. More important, he wants to continue rekindling his chemistry with Mike Evans. Tampa also wants to enter the playoffs on a three-game win streak — not sub-.500. For all those reasons I bet we see enough Brady for the win. “Also,” notes U-Bird, “with only 23 years’ experience, Tom could use the reps. Raawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 18:

Chiefs (13-3, -9 1/2) over @Raiders (6-10), 31-23: [Playoff impact: Medium — Assuming the suspended Bills-Bengals game is canceled, not finished, as has been reported, Chiefs would clinch No. 1 seed, home field and a bye with win.] Saturday’s earlier of two games sees Patrick Mahomes in a position to all but wrap his his league MVP award by guiding K.C. to AFC mountaintop. Vegas has moved on from Derek Carr and is finishing with Jarrett Stidham at QB, but lean Raiders getting this many points.

@Jaguars (8-8, -6) over Titans (7-9), 24-20: [Playoff impact: Very high — Winner-take-all for division title. Jaguars could lose and still earn wild card but only if Steelers, Patriots and Dolphins all lose.] Saturday’s prime-time feature finds Jax on a four-game win streak and Titans traveling on a six-game losing skid. Yet Tennessee should have RB Derrick Henry back and has an XXL-sized upset shot. Give us Trevor Lawrence in Duval, but Titans with the points.

@Bengals (11-4, -7) over Ravens (10-6), 20-16: [Payoff impact: Low — Both have clinched playoffs; Bengals have won division title even with loss., but could climb to No. 2 seed with win.] Cincy is 5-1 at home but you wonder about Bengals’ mental state after Monday night’s suspended game vs. Buffalo on same field when Bills’ Damar Hamlin suffered near-fatal cardiac arrest. Baltimore has struggled to score without Lamar Jackson, who seemed unlikely to play amid low stakes. Again, though, betting line feels fat.

@Bills (12-3, -7) over Patriots (8-8), 38-17: [Playoff impact: Very high -- Patriots clinch wild-card with win, or if Dolphins, Steelers and Titans all lose. Bills clinch No. 1 seed with win and Chiefs loss.] Dolphins beating Jets in a concurrent game won’t matter unless Bills beat Pats — and Buffalo should do its part. Bills have much to play for and they will also be playing for fallen teammate Damar Hamlin, whose reported road-to-recovery progress from his cardiac arrest Monday night should lift spirits on a highly emotional afternoon in western New York.

Vikings (12-4, -7 1/2) over @Bears (3-13), 24-20: [Playoff impact: Low — Vikings have already clinched division crown, but could bump up to No. 2 seed with win.] Major stakes for Bears, too. They would back into the No. 1 overall draft pick if they lose and Houston wins. With more incentive for Chitown to lose than win, and with Justin Fields out with a hip injury, Minny should win almost be default. Yet here’s another point spread that seems too big.

@Colts (4-11-1, -2 1/2) over Texans (2-13-1), 19-16: [Playoff impact: Below zero — Both were mathematically eliminated during the Nixon Administration.] One of only two Week 18 games (Panthers-Saints is other) with zero postseason bearing. I give Texans a major upset shot even though a loss clinches No. 1 overall draft pick for Houston. I’m saddling up Indy’s series domination — 17-3 in past 20 at home vs. HOU — but doing so anxiously.

@Saints (7-9, -3 1/2) over Panthers (6-10), 23-17: [Playoff impact: Zero — Both eliminated.] You could make an argument strong-finishing N’Awlins is best team eliminated from playoffs entering final week. Saints are on a 9-3 run against Carolina at home, and Panthers are only 1-6 on road this season.

@Steelers (8-8, -2 1/2) over Browns (7-9), 20-17: [Playoff impact: Low-to-medium — Steelers earn wild card with a win only if Patriots and Dolphins both lose.] I’m no slave to trends because the law of averages tends do be against them, but hard to ignore that Steelers have won 18 of past 19 home meetings with Browns. Trust Pitt’s defense a bit more in what should be a points-shy game, but picking a winner here is coin-flip close.

Chargers (10-6, +2 1/2) over @Broncos (4-12), 24-17. Upset!: [Playoff picture: Low — Chargers already have clinched wild card but can sew up No. 5 seed and a more favorable first-round matchup with a win or a loss by Ravens.] How much will Justin Herbert and other Bolts starters play? The validity of the question accounts for the double-take point spread showing Denver a small home favorite. Don’t see it. Broncos are on an 0-9 skid in their division, and securing the No. 5 seed is big enough that I bet Herbert et. al play enough to get it.

@Eagles (13-3, -14) over Giants (9-6-1), 26-17: [Playoff impact: High — Eagles clinch division title with win or loss by Cowboys; clinch No. 1 seed, home-field and bye with win if Cowboys and 49ers both lose. Giants have cinched wild card and are locked into No. 6 seed.] Giants are expected to rest starters with nothing to play for. But will Jalen Hurts return from shoulder injury and start? NYG, in its first playoffs since 2016, is too good to give a 14-point head srtart.

@49ers (12-4, -14) over Cardinals (4-12), 35-13: [Playoff impact: Medium — 49ers have clinched division title but earn No. 1 seed home field and bye with a win if Eagles lose.] High-flying Niners have won nine in a row and have big incentive to make it 10. San Fran won first meeting 38-10 and Cardbirds enter the rematch having lost six in a row. Zona also has shut down Colt McCoy and DeAndre Hopkins. A name-your score scenario.

@Seahawks (8-8, -6 1/2) over Rams (5-11), 21-17: [Playoff impact: Medium-to-high — Seahawks clinch wild card with win if Packers lose.] The Rams’ worst season ever by a defending Super Bowl champion is put out of its misery, with no incentive other than Baker Mayfield trying to impress future free agent shoppers. Seattle does have incentive of the win-and-hope variety. See L.A. going out with enough fight to keep it inside the bet line.

Cowboys (12-4, -7) over @Commanders (7-8-1), 24-13: [Playoff impact: Medium — Cowboys clinch division with win and Eagles loss; clinch No. 1 seed, home field and bye with win if Eagles and 49ers both lose.] Washington, one of the best teams to enter the final week eliminated, will start rookie QB Sam Howell. Which sounds like a feast for Dallas’ dangerous pass rush. Meanwhile Tony Pollard back healthy to join running mate Ezekiel Elliott should should help ‘Boys own the clock. Washington has dropped seven of past nine at home to Dallas.

Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Enjoyed the big week we needed straight-up last week (12-3) to get up over .600 for the year. Alas, went 5-10 against the spread as a tough season there continued. Nailed two outright upset picks with Seahawks over Jets and Steelers winning at Ravens and also had Raiders-with-points covering vs. Niners, but it wasn’t enough. We’ll finish below .500 ATS, which, happy to say, is a rarity for us. [Note, results below will be updated to include Monday’s suspended Bills-Bengals game if that game is completed, which is not expected.]

Week 17: 12-3, .800 overall; 5-10, .333 vs. spread.

Season: 152-101-2, .601 overall; 114-134-7, .461 vs. spread.

Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.

Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.