NFL Week 12 picks: Dolphins-Jets Black Friday game, Bills-Eagles, Upset of the Week and all the rest
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 12 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
DOLPHINS (7-3) at JETS (4-6)
Line: MIA by 10.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 21-13.
TV: 3 p.m. Friday, Prime Video.
The NFL is promoting the heck out of its first ever Black Friday game. Now it will be up to the Jets’ defense to make it a good one, by which I mean close. And it will be up to Miami to solve that defense or else the next episode of the Dolphins’ in-season “Hard Knocks” series will be a sad one, indeed. Offense-starved NYJ is deploying journeyman QB Tim Boyle for his fourth career start at age 29 after benching Zach Wilson. Though Miami’s defense is clearly better at home than away, don’t expect much from Boyleball. The question is how much success Tua Tagovailoa will have against a really good pass defense. Sauce Gardner vs. Tyreek Hill alone should be worth the price of admission. The Fins’ best bet will be to run-run-run. Miami is on a 5-1 run vs this AFC East rival, but also on a 2-8 skid in road games. The Dolphins averaged 37.2 points in the first six games but have averaged only 20.5 the past four games. If the Jets can hold them to around that again, they will have a great chance to cover and at least some shot at an outright upset. I like the Fins to keep their record perfect against teams with a losing record. But with the Jets’ defense likely to keep it a low-scoring Black Friday, that double-digit bet line looks fatter than me getting up from the Thanksgiving table.
GAME OF THE WEEK
BILLS (6-5) at EAGLES (9-1)
Line: PHI by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: PHI, 27-24.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
Most times, you would imagine and fear a Philly letdown after last week’s big Super Bowl rematch victory over Kansas City. Most times, too. you would be worried about a Buffalo look ahead, with the Chiefs and Cowboys up next in a brutal stretch. But there are no such concerns here either way. The Eagles won’t take lightly the desperate Bills, who in turn obviously cannot look past the Birds. Each team will get the other’s best. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen lead two big offenses and each team has a big defense. If Allen can avoid any turnovers (a big if for him), the Bills will have an upset shot. Otherwise, I lean on Philly being 4-0 at home and the Buffs only 1-3 on the road, but still hunch the dogs eke out a cover.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
PATRIOTS (2-8) at GIANTS (3-8)
Line: NE by 3.
Cote’s pick: NYG, 17-16.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “New Yaawwk beats Belichaawwk!” Back when he was surrounded by talent including Tom Brady, Bill Belichick enjoyed a smarter-than-everybody-else mystique. At 2-8 and deciding between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, he does not. So you no longer assume Bill will make magic of a bye week. Or that his track record vs. rookie QBs (such as Tommy DeVito) will automatically repeat. What beat Washington last week -- DeVito very solid, and a defense that forced six turnovers -- can continue Belichick’s woes. “’Woes.’ An underused word,” notes U-Bird. “Saquon Baaawwwkley!”
THE REST OF WEEK 12:
Thanksgiving Day: @Lions (-7 1/2) over Packers, 24-20; @Cowboys (-10 1/2) over Commanders, 31-13; and 49ers (-6 1/2) over @Seahawks, 23-16: Find all three full prediction capsules separately here.
@Falcons (4-6, -1) over Saints (5-5, 23-20: Battle for first in the lousy NFC South finds both teams coming off bye weeks with QB issues. Derek Carr (shoulder, concussion) will have a sore wing even if he’s cleared to play, while Desmond Ridder gets the ball back due to Taylor Heinicke’s hamstring injury. Saints having won five straight trips to Atlanta but I see a big Falcons ground game ending that home skid.
Steelers (6-4, -1) over @Bengals (5-5), 16-13: Joe Burrow is out for the rest of the year with a wrist injury and it’s a steep drop to Jake Browning in his first NFL start. Pitt firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada could provide the jolt Kenny Pickett needs, but I pin this pick on Steelers’ defense vs. a raw QB, especially with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick expected back.
@Titans (3-7, -3 1/2) over Panthers (1-9), 20-16: Mutt of a matchup finds rookie QBs Bryce Young and Will Levis both struggling to create much scoring. But all of Tennessee’s wins have come at home and Carolina is 0-5 on the road so make this one a venue pick.
@Colts (5-5, -2 1/2) over Buccaneers (4-6), 24-20: Two solid run defenses could turn this into Baker Mayfield vs. Gardner Minshew, a close call in a tossup game for me. Indy is on a ridiculous 1-9 skid at home so I’m playing law of averages here for a fan-pleasing Colts win coming off a bye.
Jaguars (7-3, -2) over @Texans (6-4), 27-24: Our Game of the Week runnerup, with the top of the AFC South the stakes. Houston has owned Jax to the tune of a 10-1 series run, including a 37-17 rout in September. And Trevor Lawrence is 1-4 with seven INTs vs. Houston. Seems the Texans should be favored, frankly. But Jags arrive on a 6-1 roll, and a 7-1 streak on the road. Big day by T-Law ends the series trend.
@Broncos (5-5, -2 1/2) over Browns (7-3), 19-16: Quality matchup. Cleveland has won four straight, all close, thanks to defense. Denver also has won four in a row -- thanks largely to its defense. This is not the Broncos D that Miami whipped for 70 points in Week 3. Denver has allowed only 17.4 points on average the past five games and should have the better of Browns’ backup QB. Also notable: Clevers’ defense, while awesome at home, has allowed 29.8 points across four road games.
Rams (4-6, -0 1/2) over @Cardinals (2-9), 24-16: All but pick-’em with L.A. favored by a half point. Rams on a dominant 12-2 series run vs. ‘Zona including a 26-9 win last month. Kyler Murray’s return since then has elevated the Cacti, but Rams hope to have RB1 Kyren Williams back from injury and that’s well-timed to face a soft Cards run-D. Rams also have the better defense to lean on, especially with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both iffy to play.
Chiefs (7-3, -9) over @Raiders (5-6), 24-17: K.C. will shake off its loss to Philly. Chiefs are on a 9-1 roll in this division rivalry and have won five straight away games in the series. But is the betting number too big? Vegas is 4-1 at home and was good enough to limit the Dolphins’ mighty offense to a 20-13 win last week. And Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs are a mid-pack 14th in scoring offense this season.
Ravens (8-3, -3 1/2) over @Chargers (4-6), 31-17: Sunday night stage gets a good one. Baltimore will miss injured TE Mark Andrews, but QB Lamar Jackson says his ankle is fine. We will see. If so he should hoist big numbers vs. Bolts’ league-worst pass defense. LAC also will be without Joey Bosa. Ravens have topped 30 points in five straight games and that should continue. Justin Herbert is built for a shootout but BAL’s big defense might not allow it.
@Vikings (6-5, -3 1/2) over Bears (3-8), 23-20: With WR Justin Jefferson’s Vikings’ return seeming unlikely (as of Wednesday), it isn’t a sexy matchup to wrap up Thanksgiving Weekend Monday night, but it could be a good one. The Chicago team that nearly stunned Detroit last week is capable of an upset here. But Minnesota is on a 5-1 run despite losing Kirk Cousins and has won five in a row vs. Chitown, which is 1-9 in last 10 road games. Still lean Bear-ward with the points.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook, this week as of Wednesday because of holiday.]
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
We’re starting to feel a bit of tailwind, a reappearance by our old friend Momentum. A solid 10-4 mark outright has us knocking on the door of .600 (finally), and 8-6-1 against the betting line gained some needed ground there too on the climb to .500 ATS. We nailed an outright mini-upset last week in Rams beating Seahawks, and also had a pair of dogs-with-points in covers by the Giants and Vikings. Lots of season left Let’s go! [Note: Our Thanksgiving Day picks were @Lions (-7 1/2) over Packers, 24-20; @Cowboys (-10 1/2) over Commanders, 31-13; and 49ers (-6 1/2) over @Seahawks, 23-16. Find all three full prediction capsules separately here.]
Week 11: 10-4, .714 overall; 8-6, .571 vs. spread.
Season: 98-66, .598 overall; 75-83-6, .476 vs. spread.
