NFL Would You Rather? Breaking down Week 7 betting lines

Week 7 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday with a rare display of offensive competence between the Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints. Is this a sign things are going to get weird this week? Today, we're taking a look at three pairs of games with similar point spreads and deciding which side we'd rather be on if we were forced to pick a side.

Bengals or Ravens?

The Cincinnati Bengals have rebounded from an 0-2 start, going 3-1 over their last four games. They are 4-0 against the spread in those games. This week, the Bengals are 6.5-point home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has covered the spread in every game they've played.

Elsewhere in the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens have lost two of their last three as they continue their struggle to close out games. Baltimore's opponent this week is the Cleveland Browns, a team that has lost three straight games. The Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites. Which AFC North team would you rather lay the points with at home?

Greg: Falcons-Bengals is the story of one team that runs the ball extremely well, and one team whose ground game is sadder than the great clown Pagliacci. Cincinnati’s weakness on defense is its inability to stop the run, which I believe makes this a bad matchup for them. The Bengals' saving grace is that the Falcons defense has been extremely generous this season, ranking last in overall success rate and 31st in dropback success rate. Cornerback Casey Hayward landing on injured reserve puts Atlanta in an even worse spot. I’d expect defensive coordinator Dean Pees to focus entirely on stopping Joe Burrow, challenging Joe Mixon to beat the Falcons on the ground.

What is going on with the Browns’ defense? Their roster is like a fleet of Maseratis that Voltrons into a Chevy Nova. This is an unacceptable waste of talent. Cleveland gives up the second-most points per drive and will be tasked with stopping a Ravens offense that scores the third most in that category. You want to believe that the defense will show up at some point, but it'll probably keep ghosting us. I’ll take the Ravens.

Pete: I saw signs of progress from the Bengals' offense last week. It threw the ball on early downs and didn't run the ball into a wall on first down every time. What a coincidence that Ja'Marr Chase went off for the first time since Week 1. As proven by their 6-0 record against the spread, picking against the Falcons right now doesn't feel great, but I think I lean that way. Their defense is there for the taking, as Greg said, and the Bengals' defense hasn't allowed a second-half touchdown all season. Atlanta keeps it semi-close all game, but the Bengals get the margin late.

As far as Cleveland-Baltimore, it's a divisional game and that usually lends itself to closer games. Last season, the Ravens held Nick Chubb to 75 yards rushing combined over two games, while the Browns forced four Lamar Jackson turnovers in five quarters. There are no secrets here, especially with continuity on both coaching staffs. Not saying the Browns win, but I think this will be an AFC North battle and they keep it close.

Jets or Chiefs?

The New York Jets have won three straight games as an underdog since Zach Wilson returned from injury. The Denver Broncos continue to look inept, and this week, Russell Wilson is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. As a result, the Jets are now 1-point road favorites in Denver. Elsewhere, both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are coming off losses. In a rematch of the Super Bowl from a few years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-point road favorites. Which short road favorite would you rather back?

Greg: Elijah Moore isn’t moving, but the spread on this Jets game certainly is. They’ve won every week since Zach Wilson’s return, even though he hasn’t been that great. Robert Saleh’s team is like a poor man’s version of the Niners, which makes sense, given that’s where he came from. This is going to be such an ugly matchup. Denver’s offense is like a reckless trust fund kid, wasting everything it's been afforded by its outstanding defense. I’m calling my shot here: the game is tied 13-13 in the fourth quarter before the Broncos pick-six Zach Wilson for a 20-13 win.

The Niners are too banged up for me to trust them versus the Chiefs. We saw against the Falcons last week how irreplaceable guys like Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead are to this defense. Kansas City is vulnerable to the deep ball, but is Jimmy Garoppolo going to beat them with 40-yard bombs? Doubtful. Give me the Chiefs.

Pete: Say what you will about the Broncos, and I can say a lot, but one thing is for certain, their defense is no joke. It's just so hard to win in this league when it's obvious you don't really trust your quarterback, which is pretty obviously the case in New York right now. Zach Wilson is doing his best Mark Sanchez impression, riding a superb defense and run game and making just enough plays. I agree with Greg, this will be an extreme defensive struggle. Assuming Russell Wilson is healthy and plays, he makes one more play than Zach and the Broncos win the game.

Every year under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have returned from back-to-back road games and then lost their first game back at home. Maybe it's a coincidence, but they're in that role this week. Even in ideal situations, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs coming off a loss isn't a great spot to begin with. San Francisco's injury report is also extensive, which certainly doesn't help matters. Mahomes and the Chiefs get back on track here and get the road win and cover.

Cowboys or Dolphins?

The Dallas Cowboys turn the franchise back over to Dak Prescott as he returns from a finger injury that he sustained in Week 1. Cooper Rush did an exceptional job filling in, but the Cowboys are coming off a loss. This week in Dak's return, Dallas is a 7-point favorite against the Detroit Lions. Speaking of teams coming off losses getting their starting quarterbacks back, the Miami Dolphins are 7-point home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Which team would you rather lay the touchdown with?

Greg: I’m staying so far away from this Cowboys game, I couldn’t see it with the Hubble Telescope. Dak Prescott played, possibly, the worst game of his career before he broke his thumb in Week 1. I get that it was against the Bucs and this week he’s facing the 32nd-ranked Lions defense, but I have no interest in laying a touchdown on a rusty quarterback against a hungry Detroit team coming off a bye. Dallas is 29th in Run Stop Win Rate and the Lions are one of the best in the league at running the ball, so look for them to try and control the game on the ground and grind this one out.

The Steelers beating Tampa Bay then catching seven points against the Dolphins screams Miami to me louder than Tony Montana trying to introduce me to his little friend. I actually think Pittsburgh matches up decently enough in this game, but that line is so big that it’s giving me pause. I don’t like either of these sides, but I’ll take the Cowboys.

Pete: I'm so ready for a quarterback controversy in Dallas. It'll be interesting to see if Dallas continues to lean on its defense and run game like it did when Rush was under center. That probably gives the Cowboys the best chance of winning. If they decide to open things back up, the Lions have proven they can keep up in a shootout this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift will likely be back as the Lions return from a bye. Detroit scores enough to keep this close.

Pittsburgh got one of the more shocking results of the season last week when it beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outright. It was so shocking that Chase Claypool didn't know how to react and for some reason decided shoving a wad of chewing tobacco in his mouth was the right way to celebrate. I'm still pretty sure the Steelers are a bad team though. The Miami Dolphins' offense looked tremendous when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread. Now healthy, I have a feeling he's going to put on a show with Brian Flores on the other sideline. Pittsburgh doesn't score enough to keep it close and the Dolphins cover.