NFL Playoff Picture: Dolphins' grip on AFC East is tenuous after Bills' surge

When the Miami Dolphins blasted the Washington Commanders 45-15 on Dec. 3, they led the AFC East by three games with five to play. They still lead the division by two games with three to go.

But it seems like the team with the big lead has all the pressure.

The Buffalo Bills are charging. Quality wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys completely changed the outlook in the AFC East race, and it's not even like the Dolphins are collapsing. It's the schedule.

When you see the teams' remaining schedules, it's easy to see how a Week 18 game in Miami will end up being for the AFC East championship:

Bills (8-6): at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins

Dolphins (10-4): vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

That's a massive difference. Buffalo's game against the Chargers got a lot easier with Justin Herbert's season-ending injury. The Patriots are one of the worst teams in the league. Meanwhile the Cowboys and Ravens are both arguably top-five NFL teams.

And if the Bills beat the Chargers and Patriots and the Dolphins lose at least once, Week 18 will be for the division title (and it would be a pretty great Sunday night flex option for the NFL). That's because the Bills won the first meeting 48-20 back in Week 4. If the Bills are one game back heading into that game, a win at Miami would tie the standings and the Bills would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bills already have beaten Miami soundly once and in this scenario, they'd come into the season finale on a four-game winning streak. The Dolphins would surely like to avoid having to play a red-hot Bills team for the division in Week 18.

Of course, the Dolphins still have many outs to win the division. They could beat the Cowboys and Ravens and clinch. The Bills could stumble. They did lose to the Patriots once this season, after all. Or, the Dolphins could win a huge home game against Buffalo in the finale and take the division that way. It's not like Miami is incapable of beating Buffalo if it comes to that.

But this isn't a comfortable situation for the Dolphins, who haven't won a division title since 2008. An AFC East championship seemed like a wrap early this month. Never has a two-game lead with three to go seemed so vulnerable.

Here are the Week 16 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams

There's plenty on the line Thursday night in Los Angeles. The Saints are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. A Week 17 game between the Saints and Bucs in Tampa Bay will likely decide the division, but the Saints still want to keep pace before then. The Rams don't have much of a safety net, especially with a Week 18 game remaining against the San Francisco 49ers (though it's looking like the 49ers could have the No. 1 seed clinched by then). Los Angeles needs to keep winning in the wild-card race. The Rams are currently the No. 7 seed, but the 7-7 Seahawks have a very easy remaining schedule (at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals), which is why Seattle got the last spot in this week's projected playoff picture.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bengals' problem is their schedule. Their last two games are at the Chiefs and against the Browns. They're one of four 8-6 teams vying for two wild-card spots. They can't afford to lose Saturday considering what comes in the final two weeks. The Steelers' problem is they aren't a very good team anymore. Pittsburgh's playoff hopes took an enormous hit after losing three in a row, and they'd need a minor miracle to get in. The winner of this Saturday game will at least feel like its season is still alive.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

There actually is a somewhat realistic path for the Vikings to win the NFC North. If they win Sunday, beat the Green Bay Packers at home in Week 17 and the Lions lose in Week 17 at the Cowboys, then Vikings at Lions in Week 18 would be for the division title. That's not too unrealistic of a scenario. On the other hand, if the Lions win or tie on Sunday they clinch their first division title since 1993.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who would have thought a few weeks ago that this game would mean much more to the Jaguars' playoff hopes? The Buccaneers are likely playing for the division title next week against the Saints, no matter what happens Sunday. The Jaguars are in a fight for the AFC South. There's a three-way tie at 8-6 between Jacksonville, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars have the easiest remaining schedule of the three, but they also have lost three in a row and Trevor Lawrence is in the concussion protocol. With a loss Sunday, the Jaguars might not have at least a share of first place for the first time since early October.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers

This could be a Super Bowl preview. It also matters in the playoff race, although the 49ers lead the rest of the NFC by a full game and the No. 1 seed seems inevitable whether they win or lose. The Ravens also have a game lead over the rest of the AFC, and the Dolphins are the only team within one game of them. Dolphins-Ravens in Week 17 could decide the top seed. A win over the 49ers would maintain the Ravens' cushion in that race, however. Baltimore also clinches the division with a win and a Browns loss or tie, or a tie and a Browns loss.