NFL playoff picks: Dolphins at Bills — and 3 big upsets! Will Miami shock the world?

GREG COTE’S NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFF PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

No. 7 DOLPHINS (9-8) at No. 2 BILLS (13-3)

Line: BUF by 13.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 24-20.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

Oh, I wanted to. I so wanted to pick Miami here in a mega-upset because nobody is giving the Fins a chance, and that’s stupid. ESPN’s Football Power Index projection has a Buffalo win at 96.3 percent — a season high. That’s insane in an AFC East series that split season games by scores of 21-19 (Fins) and 32-29 (Bills). Yes, Tua Tagovailoa played in both and is now out (again) with a concussion. But giving the Dolphins next to zero shot of an upset, even with rookie Skylar Thompson likely pitching again, runs counter to the nature of an intense division rivalry and the plain volatile unpredictability of the NFL. Can we recall that Buffalo would have lost to New England last week but for the freakish anomaly of two kickoff-return TDs by the Bills? Buffalo is not invincible, especially when you get the Josh Allen who was third in the league with 14 interceptions. Bills had nine turnovers in the opponent red zone this season. Don’t get this wrong. I know almost everything favors the Buffs. Emotion does, with the whole Damar Hamlin situation and the possibility he will be at the game. Also the Bills have won six consecutive games and 10 of past 11 at home over Miami — seven of them by double digits. But Dolphins will be high for their first playoff game since 2016, buoyed by two even regular-season meetings, and motivated by the disrespect of the point spread. Fins also catch a break with the weather: 20s, but no snow in the forecast. Here is what Miami must have in Sunday’s first game: Clean play from Thompson and win the turnover battle. An available Raheem Mostert despite his thumb injury and an effective ground game. Tyreek Hill healthy. A huge effort on defense. It’s a lot to ask, but too much? I like Miami to cover, at least. And an outright upset that would shock the NFL would be only a mild surprise to me.

OTHER AFC GAMES:

@No. 4 JAGUARS (9-8, +2 1/2) over No. 5 CHARGERS (10-7), 27-23. Upset!: Saturday’s prime-time game finds Jax higher seeded but an under-respected home dog — and deserving a bit more love coming in on the wing of five wins in a row. Jaguars also had NFL’s seventh-best season points differential this season, a plus/minus well-fed by J’ville’s 38-10 rout of Bolts in September. LAC deep threat Mike Williams is iffy to play with a sore back. Matchup is pitched as Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence in a battle of luxurious hair, but look for Jax to target Chargers’ weak run defense, too. Jaguars are on a 5-0 run winning outright as a home dog, and will do it again.

@No. 3 BENGALS (12-4, -9) over No. 6 RAVENS (10-7), 23-16: The Sunday night game reprises Cincy beating Baltimore 27-16 just last week, and a similar outcome should be expected. Lamar Jackson (knee) was not at practice Wednesday and backup Tyler Huntley (shoulder) did not throw, so undrafted rookie Anthony Brown may get the ball again unless Huntley makes a fast recovery or the Raven are planning a January Surprise with L-Jack. Ravens have averaged only 12.5 points during past six games, while Cincy and Joe Burrow steam in on eight straight wins and have not lost at home since Week 1. BAL’s defense and J.K. Dobbins, though, should be enough for the cover in a low-points affair.

NFC GAMES:

@No. 2 49ERS (13-4, -9 1/2) over No. 7 SEAHAWKS (9-8), 24-10: Saturday’s early game matches the hottest team in football with San Fran on a 10-game win streak vs. the last team to sneak into the playoffs in Seattle. Niners have suffered no hiccup with Brock Purdy at QB and have scored 112 points in past three games. Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) is getting close to healthy but can’t imagine a change the way Purdy is percolating. And Christian McCaffrey should be looking at Seahawks’ run defense like a Rottweiler eyes hamburger. SF swept season series by 28 points combined and has a championship-caliber balance of offense and epic-strong defense. Almost midnight for Geno Smith’s pumpkin ride.

No. 6 GIANTS (9-7-1, +3) over @No. 3 VIKINGS (13-4), 26-24. Upset!: The early Sunday game is a rematch of one the Vikes won over the G-Men 27-24 just three weeks ago on a last-play field goal. New York ended the season in a 2-5-1 slump and has lost five straight trips to Minnesota, but I see the Giants reclaiming their mojo here. Minnesota as a minimum three-point home fave is a warning Vikes have been living on a one-score wins and are ripe for an early playoff exit. Daniel Jones threw for 334 yards in the first meeting, and Jones and Saquon Barkley should once again feast on a Vikings defense that ranks last among all playoff teams in most points, total yards and passing yards allowed.

@No. 4 BUCCANEERS (8-9, +2 1/2) over No. 5 COWBOYS (12-5), 19-17. Upset!: It’s the Monday night game wrapping up Wild-Card Weekend, a.ka. Jerry’s Nightmare. Poor Jerry Jones always thinks this is the year, and it never is. Dallas has lost eight playoff road games in a row and 11 of past 14. Dak Prescott is 0-4 in the postseason and with a turnover proclivity (11 INTs in past seven games) that could be a big factor here. Tom Brady also has been pick-prone lately, but — you may have heard — Tom tends to rise up when the games are biggest. Bucs beat ‘Boys 19-3 to open season, and Dallas’ defense has sagged in second half of the year. Turnovers will shape this result. I’ll take Tom over Dak.

FIRST-ROUND BYES:

CHIEFS (14-3; AFC No. 1 seed): Kansas City will enter playoffs with five straight wins and 10 in past 11 games. Chiefs will face lowest-seeded survivor from first three AFC games, which would be Chargers if all three betting favorites win.

EAGLES (14-3; NFC No. 1 seed): Philadelphia had lost two straight before Week 18 win, but QB Jalen Hurts’ shoulder will benefit from week off. Eagles will face lowest-seeded survivor first three NFC games, which would be Dallas if favorites win.

Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Spritz a pig with perfume and it still smells bad. So there is no sugarcoating that this was a rough 2022 regular season for us. Last week we nailed the Dolphins’ 5-point winning margin over the Jets and had a trio of dogs-with-points in covers by the Titans, Giants and Rams. Still, our .459 season winning percentage against the spread was embarrassing as our track record is the right side of .500 across 32 seasons of NFL picks in the Herald. The late climb to .602 overall at least was a small silver lining. Time to end strong with a big playoff run!

Week 18: 10-6, .625 overall; 7-9, .438 vs. spread.

Final Season: 162-107-2, .602 overall; 121-143-7, .459 vs. spread.

Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.

Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.