NFL player props: Colts' Michael Pittman Jr. shows it's better to receive than give vs. Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers can clinch their first playoff berth in four years with a win over the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. All that's standing in their way is a pair of backup running backs, a quarterback who's started one game in the past two seasons, and a head coach that was a talking head on ESPN a couple months ago. It seems like an easy enough task for the 4-point favorites, but the Chargers franchise has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If you're unfamiliar, just search "Chargers gonna charge" on Twitter. Here are three player props on BetMGM I like in tonight's game:
Gerald Everett over 3.5 receptions (+110)
Everett has been targeted on the field this season nearly as much as a certain social media NFL analyst has been targeted online after saying Tua Tagovailoa is better than Justin Herbert. The Chargers tight end is averaging 6.1 targets per game, and that number has stayed consistent even with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back in the lineup. Los Angeles passes at the second-highest rate (66.7%), but they're not pushing the ball vertically under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. This play-calling has led to Everett cashing this prop in each of his last four games and in seven of his last eight.
Zack Moss over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
Moss outcarried backfield mate Deon Jackson 24-13 in last week's historic loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Jackson didn't see a single opportunity in the last 13 minutes of the game after coughing up a fumble with 3:23 remaining in regulation. Los Angeles allows the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs (128.2) and the most yards per carry to the position (5.5). Colts interim head coach Jeff Saturday is old-school in his commitment to a balanced offense. In his five outings as temporary skipper, Indianapolis is averaging 30.8 rushing attempts per game and has run the ball at least 25 times in each contest. A dozen or so carries should cash this prop for Moss.
Michael Pittman Jr. over 5.5 receptions (-120)
It's yet to be determined which Nick Foles will show up in his new starting role for the Colts. Will it be Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles? Unlikely. All that matters to us is that Foles has a history of targeting his best pass-catchers. For Indianapolis, that's Pittman, by roughly the number of miles it takes to finish the Indy 500. The Chargers defense ranks 20th in dropback EPA, while Pittman has gone over this number in four of his last five games and in seven of his last nine.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, CBS Sports, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
