NFL player props: Aaron Rodgers comes up big vs. Titans

Last year's top two vote-getters for NFL Coach of the Year will meet in Lambeau Field on Thursday night, as the 4-6 Green Bay Packers host the 6-3 Tennessee Titans. The pair of coaches have only squared off on the field once before — a 2020 Green Bay home game in which the Packers routed the Titans, 40-14. Vegas doesn't expect Matt LaFleur's team to win by as healthy a margin this time around, but his team is a three-point favorite over Mike Vrabel and the Titans. Here are three props on BetMGM I like in tonight's rematch:

Aaron Rodgers longest passing completion over 35.5 yards (-120)

Green Bay's resident ayahuasca expert is hurling deep balls at the seventh-highest rate this year. Rodgers had his best game of the season last week versus the Cowboys, throwing lasers around as if he were a sci-fi villain. It would be preferable if his receivers weren't holding weekly meetings together on the dropped passes leaderboard, but the most important factor here is volume. We know Rodgers is going to chuck it, and the Titans have allowed a completion of at least 44 yards in seven of their nine games.

Aaron Jones under 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

Injuries have led to Titans defenders rotating in and out of Tennessee's lineup, but one thing has remained constant: no one is running on this defense. They rank first in Run Stop Win Rate and rushing success rate. Over the last six contests, they're allowing just 39.8 rushing yards per game to running backs. Jones has gone under this number in three of his last five outings.

Green Bay Packers to call the first timeout (-115)

LaFleur has called the game's first timeout in 67.8% of his 59 regular season games as Green Bay's head coach. At home, that number is 67.9%. Mike Vrabel, on the other hand, is saving his timeouts for a rainy day, calling the game's first timeout at a 36.2% clip overall, and 31% on the road. Anything could happen in a one-game sample, so I wouldn't go crazy on this, but there is a large enough disparity between the two coaches to place a bet here.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, ESPN, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).