NFL player prop debate: What can we realistically expect from Tom Brady?

I've lost a lot of money through the years thinking this is the year Tom Brady falls off.

Usually you'll do OK betting with 100 years of NFL history, but Brady has blown away every record for a quarterback his age. He's the greatest 40-year-old QB, the greatest 41-year-old, and the greatest at 42, 43 and 44 too. He's not just the greatest "old" player in sports history. He has lapped the field. Multiple times.

And that brings us to this season. Brady is 45. As noted in the Buccaneers season preview, here's the entire list of NFL players who have thrown a pass at age 45 or older: George Blanda. He was 7-of-22 for 116 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT over four seasons. That's it.

Here are Brady's props for this season at BetMGM: 4,549.5 yards, 35.5 touchdowns. How lucky do you feel fading those numbers?

The case for the over on Tom Brady's yardage and TD totals

Here it is: 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns. That was Brady's stat line last season. Before last season, quarterbacks past their 44th birthday had 1,815 yards and 14 touchdowns combined. Brady led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, somehow.

Brady looked nothing like a quarterback who should have fallen apart five years ago. In his last game, he led a great fourth-quarter comeback to tie the Los Angeles Rams in a divisional round playoff game, which was fantastic even if the Rams ended up winning. If you put on the tape and watched 2021 Brady, you couldn't see any real difference between that player and Brady from 10 or 15 years ago. It's unbelievable. There's no good reason to believe he'll suddenly hit the wall.

And Brady has more than enough talent around him to have another great season. Mike Evans is in for a big year. Chris Godwin will return from an ACL tear at some point. The Buccaneers signed Russell Gage to play the slot, then signed Julio Jones just for the heck of it. The offense will still pass a lot. And even if Brady finally takes a step back, that regression is part of the BetMGM totals already.

This is Tom Brady. Normal rules have not applied.

The case for the under on Brady's totals

Let's skip the age discussion, because that point has been made.

Is there any concern over Brady's offseason? He famously retired, then decided to come back 40 days later. He took a well-publicized vacation during training camp, which is very unusual. Brady has earned the right to do whatever he pleases, but it was odd to see a hyper-competitive athlete like him retire for about six weeks and then also take time off in camp. It's OK to wonder if those were signs that his legendary focus is waning, just a bit. The man has been playing NFL football for more than two decades, after all. It would be understandable.

There are also personnel concerns for the Buccaneers. The interior of the offensive line has taken some hits, most notably center Ryan Jensen's knee injury, and they can't afford any more injuries on the line. Brady is vulnerable to pressure up the middle, so having issues at guard and center isn't good. Also, Godwin has been an enormous part of the offense and not every player returns as good as new from ACL surgery right away. The Buccaneers saw Bruce Arians step down as coach, though that doesn't seem to be a huge deal since he'd delegated so much of the offense to coordinator Byron Leftwich recently.

And yes, at some point Brady will fall off at his age. Maybe.

The verdict

My head tells me to take the under. When 45-year-old quarterbacks through NFL history have a combined 116 yards passing, it's really hard for me to take over on 4,549.5 yards or 35.5 touchdowns. At some point, history has to catch up to Brady. I also worry about the Bucs' offensive line issues.

But I'm also done betting against him. One of these seasons those unders could cash but I'm done chasing it. Call it respect for a player who has blown to bits every single data point on quarterbacks in their 40s. I'll be passing on the Brady props (and it's OK to pass on a bet, BetMGM has dozens of other props listed).

The under on both yardage and touchdowns is probably the wise bet. Then again, that has been the case for at least five years.