NFL player prop debate: Cooper Kupp could regress a lot and still hit yardage total

Cooper Kupp had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history last season.

Kupp had 178 catches, 2,425 yards, 22 touchdowns, counting playoffs, and won Super Bowl MVP. He should have gotten some consideration for regular-season MVP but only quarterbacks get attention for that award anymore. In the regular season Kupp put up a 145-1,947-16 line, which matters for our prop bets that don't count the playoffs.

In other words, Kupp could shave almost 650 yards off his yardage from last season and still hit his 2022 total at BetMGM. Kupp's total is 1,299.5, which is very high but a figure Kupp would have hit in about 11.5 games last season at his amazing pace.

The case for the over on Cooper Kupp's receiving yards total

Kupp had a remarkably consistent season. He had 64 yards against the Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 13. In every other game he had at least 92 receiving yards. That's unheard of. He had at least 92 yards in three of four playoff games too.

The difference for Kupp last season was Matthew Stafford. Stafford locked onto Kupp as his top option and never stopped all the way through his last pass of the season, a Super Bowl-winning touchdown throw to Kupp. If anyone thinks defenses will simply plan on stopping Kupp, well, they tried last season when he was putting up more than 90 yards every game from the start of September to mid-February. He was just unguardable.

Kupp is very unlikely to repeat a 1,947-yard season. That's a lot to ask. But he could cut off a third of his receiving yardage from last season and finish with 1,304 yards. That would cash a ticket this season.

Kupp doesn't have much more competition for targets. Allen Robinson II was signed but he replaces Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr., who got some attention last season. Perhaps if Cam Akers is back to his old form the Rams will run the ball more. But again, Kupp could operate at two-thirds of his 2021 season and still hit the over. There's a lot of wiggle room with that total.

The case against Kupp's receiving yards total

As always, the problem with taking the over on a large number is the injury possibility. That has killed plenty of over bets through the years. Kupp hasn't missed too much time in his career other than a 2018 torn ACL, but that's the risk. There's also the risk in Stafford missing time, because if he gets hurt then Kupp's production will drop.

Also, 2021 was an outlier in Kupp's career. Here are Kupp's season totals before 2021: 869, 566 (in eight games), 1,161 and 974. Stafford obviously had a big impact in Kupp's career year and he's not going anywhere, assuming his elbow holds up. But you're still betting on Kupp putting up a number that he never reached in his first four seasons.

There's not much else to worry about. Inevitable regression is already factored into that 1,299.5 number, and it probably went a bit overboard. Kupp is 29 years old, which is a little old for a receiver, but not an age in which he should fall off. If you bet the under, you're betting on him missing time with injury. And it probably needs to be more than a game or two.

The verdict

I don't like taking the over on the highest numbers on the board. But I can't tell you that a healthy Kupp (and healthy Stafford) won't even produce two-thirds of what he did last season.

Maybe Kupp gets hurt, but that's the only reasonable way he doesn't hit the over. A scenario in which Kupp (and Stafford) plays 17 games but doesn't reach 1,300 yards is really hard to believe. Sean McVay unlocked Kupp's upside last season and won a Super Bowl. Stafford had a magical ride too. They're not suddenly going to go away from that and forcing targets to Tyler Higbee.

Even a massive regression is accounted for in the total. It seems square to take the over on a total that high, but that's the right play. Then, hope Kupp stays healthy.