NFL odds: Justin Jefferson? Ja'Marr Chase? Who's the best early bet for Offensive Player of the Year?

Anyone who follows the NFL understands how cyclical the league can be. The pressure of delivering immediate results leads to successful offensive philosophies spreading throughout the league quickly and ultimately impacting everything from roster construction to draft tendencies. That’s until the defenses figure it out schematically, the next new idea comes along and the cycle repeats itself.

The patterns are a big part of what I love about the game. As we dive into our prep for the upcoming season, the Offensive Player of the Year awards market is a great place to start. There are plenty of bets with robust odds, allowing us to dip our feet in from a risk perspective without giving up the opportunity of a decent payout. Let’s be honest, in two months we will be balking at laying -120 after missing a line move. So, looking at an award where the co-favorites are +1200 is pretty appealing for this time of year. Plus, since voters determine the outcome, historical patterns and league-wide trends are more relevant for these wagers.

Based on recent history, it’s been an award for wide receivers. Justin Jefferson, last year’s winner, hauled in 1,809 yards while averaging 14.1 yards per reception. He was the third wideout in the last four years to take home the award. Positional streaks aren’t uncommon. Running backs reigned for eight consecutive years from 1996-2003, followed by a shift to quarterbacks as passing and scoring became more prominent over the last decade. With QBs garnering most of the attention for MVP, wide receivers appear to have settled in as popular picks for this market.

Rather than just fire off a few players that I think are worth a wager, here's some insight into my best bet for three separate tiers along with the current odds at BetMGM. It’s not uncommon for bettors to have multiple wagers in these types of markets by season’s end, and it provides options depending on your risk threshold.

The Top Tier

• Justin Jefferson +1200

• Ja'Marr Chase +1200

• Christian McCaffrey +1400

• Tyreek Hill +1800

• Cooper Kupp +2000

• Lamar Jackson +2000

• Jalen Hurts +2000

Best Bet: Ja'Marr Chase +1200

It helps your case when your quarterback is co-favorite with Patrick Mahomes to be the league MVP. Entering his third season catching passes from Joe Burrow, it's clear that Chase is just scratching the surface of his potential. His yardage numbers were dragged down last season by a hip injury that caused him to miss five games, but his targets increasing (7.5 to 11.1 per game) is exactly what we like to see. If he can stay healthy and get those looks over 17 weeks, he should end up with the same type of eye-popping numbers that earned Jefferson the award this past year. You can argue Jefferson is slightly more talented, but here is why I think he has less value. First, he is coming off winning the award. Secondly, the Vikings prioritizing drafting Jordan Addison signals they want to take some of the load off Jefferson’s shoulders. It’s a production-based award.

Continuing with the other receivers in the tier, Hill and Kupp are both capable of putting up the numbers, but their production is tied to the QB situation, where health remains a pretty big question mark. McCaffrey is probably going to need to push 2,000 total yards, and that’s a lot to ask for a running back entering his seventh season. That leaves the two QBs, Hurts and Jackson, who I both think hold some value at 20 to 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if either player has their best year yet, especially Jackson with the addition of new OC Todd Monken. The problem for bettors is, if that holds true, it will most likely be the league MVP that they go home with.

The +2500 Club

• Josh Allen +2500

• Davante Adams +2500

• Jonathan Taylor +2500

• Justin Fields +2500

• Patrick Mahomes +2500

• Garrett Wilson +2500

• Nick Chubb +2500

Best Bet: Nick Chubb +2500

Nick Chubb is one of the few running backs in the league that has the combination of talent and durability to win this award. The Browns running back bulldozed his way to a career-high 1,525 yards in 2023, and averaged over 5 yards per carry in all five years he has been in the league. Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines clearing the way for him, and Chubb should remain the engine of the offense with plenty of opportunities. I also think Garrett Wilson is worth mulling at this price, considering the Jets will likely be the buzziest team in the league. The Raiders aren’t likely to win enough for Adams to be viable, and I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to wager on top-tier quarterbacks like Mahomes or Allen for the reasons above. Chubb has 1,800-yard potential and has shown no signs of slowing down. I will bank on his consistent production and high ceiling.

The Long Shots

• CeeDee Lamb +3000

• Travis Kelce +3000

• Trevor Lawrence +3000

• Austin Ekeler +4000

• Breece Hall +5000

• Jaylen Waddle +6600

• Calvin Ridley +8000

Best Bet: CeeDee Lamb +3000

There are a lot of interesting names with juicy odds attached to them. Travis Kelce would be my bet for most likely to deserve the award, but I can’t wager on him knowing a tight end has never won. He has a big enough personality to sway the media, but the fact that he didn’t receive a single vote last year moved me to sticking with a wide receiver in Lamb. Dallas’ dynamic playmaker is coming off a monster season where he ranked sixth in receiving yards and fourth in targets despite having Cooper Rush throwing to him in a few games. If Dak Prescott stays healthy for a full season, Lamb has as good of a shot as anyone to lead the league in all the important statistical categories. Head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling is a mild concern, but they demonstrated the willingness to get the ball in the hands of Lamb consistently throughout last season.