NFL odds, betting: It's hard to bet against Bill Belichick vs. underachieving Cardinals
Football games matter more in December. It's too early to call Monday night's game a "must-win" for New England, but it's more pivotal for their playoff push than you might think. The 6-6 Patriots are lurking on the fringes of the playoff picture. However, with a win tonight against the 4-8 Arizona Cardinals, they can steal the Jets' seat at the table as the seventh seed.
Here is why this game is so important: After facing Arizona and Las Vegas these next two weeks (two teams with combined records of 9-16), the Patriots will have some of the best teams in the conference waiting for them. New England ends the year with two home games against Cincinnati and Miami before traveling to Buffalo, where the Bills are 5-1 this season. It will be sink-or-swim in those final three weeks. I'm sure they would much rather walk into that gauntlet with an 8-6 record than continue to tread water at 7-7.
The good news for New England fans is that the Patriots have been good at handling business against the teams they should. As a result, they have been very dependable as a favorite (4-1-1 ATS) and predictably bad as an underdog (2-4 ATS). We know what to expect from this Patriots team, so let's profit off the few remaining times they will be favorites.
New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
All home-field advantages are not equal. As a home dog on "Monday Night Football," here is why Arizona doesn't carry much weight in this role. The Cardinals are 1-6 at home and have lost three straight, while the Patriots are well-rested after playing on Thursday last week. There are some angles regarding coaching through the extended rest for both teams that I will also touch on.
The Patriots' offense is straightforward to a fault. We all laughed over Mac Jones rightfully reaching his tipping point with the play-calling, but that's unlikely to change with Jakobi Meyers out of the lineup. So instead, Matt Patricia will plan to slam Rhamondre Stevenson into the Cardinals' defense and see how fast they scream, "Uncle!" No team in the NFL allows explosive rushing plays at a higher rate than the Cardinals. Arizona also ranks 26th in rushing success rate allowed and 25th on early downs. When Stevenson isn't ripping off chunk plays, the Pats should be able to stay on schedule and keep the chains moving. Both offenses struggle on third downs, but the Pats' defense has the better chance of knocking the Cardinals off rhythm.
Mobile quarterbacks have been a thorn in Bill Belichick's side, but there are some encouraging signs the Patriots can keep Kyle Murray under wraps. They held Josh Allen to only 20 yards on eight carries last week, and they have had extra time to prepare for this Arizona offense. The Patriots are also great at generating pressure, which will undoubtedly be a key Monday night. Out of 37 quarterbacks that have taken at least 20% of snaps this season, Murray and Jones rank 35th and 36th under pressure, above only Zach Wilson. So who do you trust to take advantage of that: Belichick or Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph?
It takes talent to win in the NFL, but coaching matters. The mismatch on the sidelines is another factor that pushed me to bet on the Patriots. Both quarterbacks have shown frustration with their play-callers recently, whether it's shouting on the sidelines or talking "schematics" to the media. I don't know if Jones feels better about the Patriots' offense, but I am confident there were more productive conversations in New England than in Arizona. The 4-8 Cardinals are finishing a drama-filled, disappointing season that I am sure everyone wants to turn the page on and look to the future. I will take the team fighting for the postseason. Bet the Pats, and don't look back.
Stats provided by PFF, Football Outsiders, rbsdm, and teamrankings.
