NFL futures, odds: The Seattle Seahawks have entered the rebuilding stage
Pete Carroll took over the Seattle Seahawks in 2010. Since becoming the head coach, Seattle has been one of the more consistently successful franchises in the NFL. The Seahawks have never had less than seven wins in a season under Carroll. Even last season, which most would consider a disastrous season, saw the Seahawks win seven games.
The Seahawks reached the pinnacle of their run in 2013 and 2014, when they appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls. They won one of them and are probably still kicking themselves for not winning both. That team featured Russell Wilson on a rookie contract which allowed the Seahawks to put together one of the more impressive defensive units in recent memory. When Wilson deservedly got paid, Seattle had to part ways with a lot of key members of that team. However, Wilson was more than enough to keep Seattle competitive. They made the playoffs in five of six seasons from 2015 to 2020.
By trading Wilson to Denver over the offseason, the Seahawks have entered a rebuilding phase. The team and coaches will maintain that winning is the goal and they expect to be competitive, but when Geno Smith is your starting quarterback, actions speak louder than words. It'll likely be a long season in the Pacific Northwest, something the fans there aren't used to. Yahoo's Frank Schwab has the Seahawks ranked 26th in his preseason power rankings. The betting market might be even lower than that.
Down year expected in Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks have won at least seven games in 12 straight seasons and 19 of the last 21, dating back to 2000. However, their win total for the upcoming season is set at just 5.5 wins. It's tied for the third lowest mark in the league. Only Atlanta and Houston have lower projected win totals entering the season.
Bettors aren't siding with history either. The Seahawks to go under 5.5 wins is currently the fourth most popular under bet of any team. Overall, 70% of bets and 67% of the money is on the under for Seattle's win total. The Seahawks are -900 favorites to miss the playoffs this season, odds which suggest they miss the playoffs 90% of the time. Currently at BetMGM, 95% of the money is backing Seattle to miss the playoffs.
The Seahawks are 16-to-1 to win the NFC West this season, the worst odds in the division by a wide margin. Those are also the fourth worst odds of any team in the league to win their division. Only Houston, Atlanta and the Jets have worse odds to win their respective division.
Seattle is a -450 favorite to finish in fourth place in the NFC West behind the Rams, 49ers and Cardinals. They are a massive +600 underdog to occupy a top-2 spot and finish ahead of two of those teams. Bettors aren't tempted by the large number with Seattle, as just 2.2% of the money wagered is backing them to win the division.
Seattle is just +400 to lose all six of their divisional games. They're also only +375 to lose all eight of their road games. While those aren't great odds for an 8-leg parlay, the Seahawks road schedule includes the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Chargers, Saints and Lions. Outside of Detroit and maybe New Orleans, it's hard to picture Seattle winning any of those road games.
The Seahawks have +800 odds to finish with the fewest wins in the league. Those are the fifth best odds behind Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and the Jets. Seattle is +900 to score the fewest points in the league, tied for the fourth best odds with Carolina. Only Houston, Atlanta and Chicago have better odds.
Seattle is 200-to-1 to win the Super Bowl this season. Those are the third worst odds in the league, ahead of only Houston and Atlanta. The Seahawks are the fourth least popular Super Bowl bet at BetMGM, ahead of only Atlanta, Jacksonville and Chicago. Seattle is 80-to-1 to win the NFC, the second worst odds in the conference, ahead of only the Falcons.
Seahawks' player props and awards
It's probably not a great sign when the oddsmakers aren't even posting awards odds and props for your starting quarterback. However, here's what BetMGM thinks of some of the Seahawks' players entering the 2022 season:
Rashaad Penny
Rashaad Penny might have won you your fantasy football league last year, but the former first-round pick has had issues getting on the field and then staying on the field in his first four seasons with Seattle. Despite that, Penny is 18-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing this season. Those are the 8th best odds and right behind big names like Najee Harris, Joe Mixon and Elijah Mitchell.
Penny's season-long props for the upcoming season are set at over/under 749.5 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing touchdowns. Despite having just six games where he got 10+ carries last season, Penny had 749 yards and 6 touchdowns. If Penny stays on the field and holds off Kenneth Walker, he should be able to reach these marks.
D.K. Metcalf
The receivers in Seattle obviously take a huge hit with the quarterback change from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith. Oddsmakers are reflecting that in their numbers for the upcoming season. D.K. Metcalf is 40-to-1 to lead the league in receiving yards, 50-to-1 to lead the league in touchdowns and 66-to-1 to lead the NFL in receptions.
Metcalf's season-long props are set at over/under 67.5 receptions, 899.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receiving touchdowns. Last season, Metcalf posted 75 catches for 967 yards and 12 touchdowns. Metcalf did have a solid connection with Smith last season, posting 14 catches, 197 yards and 3 touchdowns over the three games Smith started.
Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett is one of the best deep threats in football, but he's no longer getting the ball thrown to him by one of the best deep-ball passers in the league. As a result, oddsmakers are expecting Lockett's numbers to come way down this season. His over/under props for this season are set at 63.5 receptions, 799.5 receiving yards and 5.5 touchdowns. Last year, Lockett had 73 catches for 1,175 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Other Seahawks' players
Kenneth Walker is 25-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He recently underwent surgery to repair a hernia and his status for the season opener is still in question. He will also need to beat out Rashaad Penny if he wants to take over the backfield. Despite that, Walker is the ninth most popular bet to win the award.
Quandre Diggs' interception prop for the upcoming season is set at over/under 3.5 interceptions. He's had five in each of his first two full seasons in Seattle.
Pete Carroll is 50-to-1 to win NFL Coach of the Year. Those are the worst odds in the league, tied with Arthur Smith and Lovie Smith. Only Lovie Smith and Kevin Stefanski have received fewer bets than Carroll.
You should probably wait to bet Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks welcome back Russell Wilson in their season opener, as Seattle plays host to the Denver Broncos. Wilson is expected to get the best of his former team, as the Broncos are 6.5-point road favorites.
Currently at BetMGM, Seattle has received just 8% of the bets and 5% of the money backing them to cover the spread in the season opener. In other words, if you want to bet Seattle in Week 1, it might be best to wait until closer to kickoff. There's a very good chance this number hits 7 by the time the game kicks off on Monday night.
If you like Seattle to spoil Wilson's coming home party, the Seahawks are +200 underdogs to win the game outright.
