NFL futures, odds: Can Brian Daboll make the New York Giants competitive in 2022?
Things fell apart quickly for the New York Giants last season. They opened the season with three straight losses and were 3-6 at the midway point. Things got even worse in the second half of the season. They lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones to injury. By the end of the season, they were running quarterback sneaks on third down up against their own end zone to give their punter some extra room. They were quickly becoming one of the bigger jokes in the NFL.
That late season display by Joe Judge cost him his job. General manager Dave Gettleman retired, so the Giants fully cleaned house ahead of the offseason. They bought in Joe Schoen as the new general manager and Brian Daboll as their new head coach. Over the past few seasons, those two have played a large part in the Buffalo Bills becoming what they are.
Daboll in particular has received a lot of praise around the NFL the past few seasons for his role in overseeing the development of Josh Allen. With Daboll as the offensive coordinator, Allen went from a risky, often mocked draft pick in 2018 to now being the current MVP favorite entering 2022. Giants fans hope that he can work similar magic with Jones, a young quarterback who has seen his development stalled over the past few seasons.
However, Daboll certainly has his work cut out for him. Quietly, the Giants have been one of the most incompetent franchises in the sport the past five years. Since 2017, the Giants have 59 losses. That ties them with the Jets, their MetLife Stadium co-tenants, for most losses over that span. Yahoo's Frank Schwab has the Giants ranked 30th in his preseason power rankings. The betting market is a little higher than that on the Giants, but not by much.
Improvement expected under Daboll
Last season, the New York Giants went 4-13. It was the fifth straight season they won six games or less. They've been the worst team in football from a winning perspective over the last five seasons. Despite that, their win total for the upcoming season is set at over/under 7.5 wins. The expected improvement of 3.5 wins is tied for the largest increase in the league with the Broncos, Lions and Jaguars. Action on the win total is pretty evenly split, with 51% of the betting action coming in on the Giants to go over 7.5 wins.
The Giants are +200 to make the playoffs in the NFC, odds that suggest they make the playoffs just 33% of the time. The most likely path for the Giants making the playoffs would be a wildcard spot. They are +350 to be one of the three wild card teams in the NFC. The last time the Giants made the playoffs was 2016, when they qualified as a wild card.
New York is +700 to win the NFC East. Those are the worst odds in the division. New York is a -105 favorite to finish in fourth place. However, if you want to look at it from a positive perspective, of projected fourth place teams across the league, the Giants have the second best odds to win their division behind the Raiders. The betting odds suggest a competitive and relatively wide open NFC East this coming season. The Giants are +220 to finish top-2 in the division.
If we're looking at the extremes, the Giants 40-to-1 to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Those are the 11th best odds. However, if you think the struggles will continue for the Giants this upcoming season, you can get 14-to-1 odds on them to finish with the fewest wins in the league. The Giants are also 14-to-1 to score the fewest points in football. They finished second-to-last in 2021.
Super Bowl long shots
Understandably, the New York Giants have some of the worst odds to win the Super Bowl in 2022. The Giants are 100-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, tying them for the 24th best odds with the Chicago Bears. Only seven teams have worse odds than the Giants. However, if money is burning a hole in your pocket and you think a repeat of 2008 or 2012 is in the cards, it doesn't get much more appetizing than 100-to-1 odds.
The Giants are 40-to-1 to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Those are the 11th best odds in the conference, once again tied with the Bears.
Giants awards and player props
What does the betting market think about some of the key players on the Giants?
Daniel Jones
The first three years of Daniel Jones' career have been rocky and inconsistent, to say the least. He's shown flashes of the talent that made the Giants use the sixth overall pick on him in the 2019 draft. However, more often than not, he's validated the pundits that questioned the pick at the time. On top of that, he's had issues staying on the field as he's yet to eclipse 14 games played in a single season.
Jones is 100-to-1 to win the NFL MVP. Those odds are about as high as it gets for a starting quarterback in the NFL. Jones has the same odds as Zach Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo. While there's hope that Daboll can work some magic with Jones, an MVP-level season certainly feels like a fantasy.
One award where oddsmakers are giving Jones a shot is the comeback player of the year award. Jones is 10-to-1 to win the award, odds that are tied for fourth best with Saints' wide receiver Michael Thomas. Only Derrick Henry, Jameis Winston and Christian McCaffery have better odds. After missing the second half of last season, Jones could make a case if he has a good season under a new coach. However, I'm not sure the 10-to-1 price is enough here to justify a bet.
Jones is 100-to-1 to lead the league in passing yards, 50-to-1 to lead the league in passing touchdowns and 22-to-1 to lead the league in interceptions. Jones' over/under for passing yards is set at 3699.5 yards. He hasn't gone over 3,027 in his career, so oddsmakers are projecting health and a significant improvement. His passing touchdowns number is set at 21.5 scores. He had just ten last year in eleven games and hasn't gone over 22 since his rookie season. If you're not a fan of Jones' arm, he is also quite mobile. His rushing prop is set at 349.5 yards. He had 424 rushing yards in 2020 and has 1000 yards on the ground over his three NFL seasons.
Kayvon Thibodeaux
The Giants drafted Kayvon Thibodeaux with the fifth overall pick. For a lot of the 2021 season, he was expected to go first overall. The talent is certainly there, and the betting market seems to agree. Thibodeaux is +550 to win defensive rookie of the year, the second best odds behind only Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions. Thibodeaux has received the third most betting action behind Hutchinson and Ahmad Gardner. Thibodeaux's over/under for sacks this upcoming season is set at 7.5 sacks. He's 80-to-1 to lead the NFL in sacks.
Saquon Barkley
It's certainly been a rough few seasons for Saquon Barkley. The former standout at Penn State was the second overall pick in 2018, and he showed why for his first season and a half. Then, the injuries hit. Last season, he was healthier, but still missed some games. When he did play, the results weren't there. However, we've seen the talent. Barkley is 50-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing yards, tied for the 23rd best odds with the likes of Breece Hall, A.J. Dillon and Travis Etienne. He's 28-to-1 to lead the league in rushing scores, tied for the 14th best odds with J.K. Dobbins and James Conner.
Barkley's over/under for rushing yards this upcoming season is set at 900.5 rushing yards. He eclipsed 1000 yards his first two seasons. His third year was lost due to injury. Last year, he had just 593 rushing yards in 13 games. Barkley's rushing touchdown number is set at 7.5 scores. He had just two touchdowns last year and has just eight over his last three seasons. He hasn't gone over this number since his rookie year.
Brian Daboll
Brian Daboll enters his first season as the head coach of the Giants. He's the current co-favorite to win NFL coach of the year at 12-to-1. He shares the favorite role with Dan Campbell of the Lions. Daboll is only the 11th most popular bet in terms of number of tickets written, but he's received the second most money wagered behind only Campbell. This suggests that some bigger money bets are backing Daboll. If Daboll can turn Daniel Jones into a legitimate NFL quarterback and the Giants compete for the playoffs, Daboll certainly will get some love for coach of the year.
Giants are an underdog in Week 1
The New York Giants open their 2022 season with a trip to Nashville to go head-to-head with the Tennessee Titans. The Giants are 6.5-point road underdogs against last year's No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Titans' flaws were exposed in their playoff loss to the Bengals. Derrick Henry is another year older, and A.J. Brown is now in Philadelphia. If the Giants are going to be improved and competitive this season, this is a number they should cover. It's a lot of points they're getting against a team that doesn't light it up through the air.
I'd lean towards taking the 6.5-points with New York here. That might be more of an indictment on the Titans than an endorsement of the Giants. If you think New York can pull off the outright upset, the Giants are +240 on the moneyline.
