NFL Draft: Oddsmakers still trying to get a handle on 'volatile' draft props market

Draft prop markets have perplexed oddsmakers. The odds move in ways that you don't see in any other market.

Player awards markets move constantly, but it's usually because something happens like Joel Embiid dropping 52 points against the Boston Celtics and taking over as a heavy MVP favorite. Future markets for championships shift for things like the Tampa Bay Rays starting a season 13-0.

Bryce Young's odds at BetMGM to be the first pick in the NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers moved wildly based on ... what, exactly?

"It's mind boggling because the guy didn't do anything off the field," MGM Grand director of race and sports Lamarr Mitchell said.

On April 10, Young wasn't even the favorite to go with the first pick of the draft. CJ Stroud was. One week later Young was -2000 odds to go first in the draft. The implied odds on that are more than 95 percent.

Nothing big happened to cause a shift that big, other than a few respected reporters indicating the Panthers preferred Young. It's the rare betting market in which oddsmakers are often behind the bettors.

"It's hard to get a good grasp on this market because the players' seasons are over and you're just going on inaccurate information," Mitchell said.

Bettors doing well in draft props market

Last year was a memorable one in the draft betting markets. Bettors took control of it.

Bettors had a great NFL Draft. They beat the sportsbooks on the No. 1 overall pick market and many other picks. Bettors got the best of the sportsbooks in the NBA Draft by identifying Paolo Banchero as the top pick before the oddsmakers did. The same thing happened with the NHL draft's top pick.

Bettors don't have much of an edge in anything, from the craps table to just about any bet in the sportsbook. In the draft prop markets, the tables have turned.

"Any other futures market — who will win the EPL, Super Bowl champion, who will win the NBA Finals or Stanley Cup — it's pretty solid," Mitchell said. "With the draft market, you have to pay attention every 10 seconds."

It's not a bad thing, Mitchell said. This year the sportsbooks have limited exposure by offering a smaller menu of props. For much of the offseason the only draft market at BetMGM was on the first overall pick, though it added second through fifth picks and markets like who will be the first receiver and offensive lineman selected.

There's a lot of uncertainty with the draft prop market, but it's part of the job.

"It's fun, even though the market is a little volatile," Mitchell said.

NFL Draft prop odds have been changing

The example Mitchell used to show the volatility of the market wasn't Young, but Anthony Richardson. The Florida quarterback was an afterthought in the odds for the first pick, but a great NFL scouting combine changed that. Richardson went from 100-to-1 to +300 in a short span.

Richardson isn't favored to be the first pick, but it showed how much exposure the sportsbooks can have.

"It's a wild market," Mitchell said. "It's the wild, wild west."

The common perception is that sportsbooks know every bit of inside information, but that's not true. Oddsmakers aren't talking to teams, Mitchell said. They do pay attention to reports, like everyone else does, but usually the lines will move when respected players make a bet on a certain player. The sportsbooks react to that.

"It's mostly the sharp players," Mitchell said. "Once we see one sharp player hit it, we'll adjust. If we get too much of that we'll take it off the board. Because they're in the know before we're in the know."

All the while, the oddsmakers are trying to figure out ways to get ahead of the bettors.

"It's a challenge," Mitchell said.