NFL draft makeover: How can Patriots fill talent void on both sides of the ball?
Every week during the 2020 NFL season, we’re going to — just being honest here — overreact to what we’ve seen on the field the previous Sunday and start projecting NFL draft prospects to teams that might need help at certain spots.
Think of it as a mini one-team mock draft, with early (Rounds 1-2), middle (Rounds 3-4) and late (Round 5 and later) prospects at each team’s respective position of concern.
This week’s NFL draft makeover is the New England Patriots. How do the Patriots end their draft funk and get better?
Bill Belichick was recently asked by a longtime New England Patriots reporter, Tom Curran, about the team’s lack of depth and talent on the roster — and specifically how the team’s recent draft failings have hurt toward that effort.
Belichick’s response, in essence, was that the team has won a lot of games. You know, Belichick is right about that. But so was Curran.
The Patriots’ draft returns in recent years have been, at best, middle of the pack compared to other NFL teams. The returns from the 2015 and 2016 draft classes were solid to good, but everything since has been shaky.
Is there a true difference maker among their 33 picks in the past four years? Maybe Isaiah Wynn. Maybe Chase Winovich. Plus a few more, perhaps from the semi-promising 2020 class (Kyle Dugger, Mike Onwenu, etc.).
Overall, that’s a low batting average for Belichick and his scouting staff.
There are questions all over as the 4-6 Patriots face their first losing season since 2000. Who will the quarterback be next year? How can they add offensive playmakers and defensive speed? Will Joe Thuney or Stephon Gilmore be playing elsewhere? There might even be coaching and scouting changes, too.
Everything is on the table as we look forward to how the Patriots can reemerge as a contender next season — and we’re not targeting a specific position or group here, as the talent needs are surprisingly spread out all over the roster.
For this exercise, we’re also assuming that Cam Newton will be back in 2021. That could be flawed logic, and the Patriots certainly are candidates to draft a quarterback, but it doesn’t feel as if they’re drafting a 2021 starter unless they end up picking in the top six or seven overall selections.
Early-round prospect
Florida TE Kyle Pitts
I am not 100 percent convinced the Patriots are locked in on taking an offensive skill position player high in Round 1. (See the concerns with the defense in later picks.)
Yes, the lack of playmakers is concerning. And the recent skill-position picks they have made up high — Sony Michel over Lamar Jackson or Nick Chubb, N’Keal Harry over A.J. Brown — have been rough. They tend to be picky with using high selections on skill guys in the first few rounds, and they haven’t picked so well when they have.
But Pitts feels like a unicorn. He’s basically a 6-foot-6, 240-pound wide receiver who blocks functionally enough. The Patriots haven’t had a physical specimen like him in recent years and badly need a pass catcher who can threaten the seam and be a factor in the red zone.
New England drafted two tight ends a year ago, but we’re undaunted with the choice here. Last year’s third-rounder, Devin Asiasi, can man the big-bodied “Y” position, Pitts would be more of the flexed-out “F” option, and 2020 fourth-rounder Dalton Keene profiles as more of a jack of all trades as well as in the backfield.
The Patriots used to be a big two-TE package team. In 2016, they ranked sixth in most two-TE formations. This season, they’re close to the bottom. In recent years, talent deficiencies at the position, plus injuries to Gronk and others, have limited that quite a bit. Perhaps they want to get back to that type of offense again, giving them more run-pass flexibility and helping out Newton or whoever is at QB.
Pitts is one of the 10 best prospects in the 2021 draft class, regardless of position. Urban Meyer recently said on the Big Ten Network that Pitts, before his recent injury, was the best non-QB in college football this season.
The Patriots are currently picking No. 11 overall and have a fairly tough slate — four playoff contenders, two teams with losing marks — left on the schedule. Maybe they win two or three of those and finish either 6-10 or 7-9. A 6-10 mark usually gets a team in the top 10; a 7-9 record typically lands teams in the range between the No. 11-17 picks overall.
Will they be in the range to land Pitts? Maybe. If not, perhaps Alabama wideout Jaylen Waddle (or DeVonta Smith), an offensive tackle or the best defensive player available is the route they take.
Mid-round prospect
Vanderbilt DL Dayo Odeyingbo
In Belichick’s first 10 drafts with the Patriots, they drafted 15 defensive linemen (edge and interior) — three first-round picks, two second-rounders, three fourth-rounders and the remainder coming from Rounds 5-7. In the 11 draft classes since then, they’ve drafted 15 more — three from Round 1, five from Round 3 and the remainder trickled throughout Day 3.
So why does it feel like the Patriots haven’t gotten the same level of investment with their DL picks?
There was a time when New England was nabbing a prospect such as Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren or Chandler Jones. Its best recent picks up front have been Trey Flowers, Winovich (based on his recent development, and he’s more like a linebacker now) and … Deatrich Wise Jr., a part-time starter.
Perhaps there’s an argument that defensive linemen who don’t rush the passer are less valuable in today’s NFL, but I have a hard time believing that Belichick is satisfied with his team’s defense — which has gone from ranking top 10 in almost every category last year to bottom 10 in most this year — and specifically his linemen.
Odeyingbo would give the Patriots a badly needed disruptor up front. The 6-foot-5, 279-pound rusher has nearly 36-inch arms and is built very similarly to Wise, with the ability to play almost any technique up front.
Odeyingbo’s tape against South Carolina earlier this season was terrific. And last week against Florida, Odeyingbo was highly disruptive. He might be the best run-defending SEC lineman, or one of a handful, and has provided multiple pressures in each of the past six games. Odeyingbo is also considered very smart and a team leader.
One caveat: The Patriots likely can’t wait past Round 3 to nab him, and it wouldn’t be stunning with a strong Senior Bowl week and good testing if Odeyingbo rises into the second-round picture. He’d be an upgrade over some of the Patriots’ current edge offerings, including John Simon and Shilique Calhoun.
Late-round prospect
Rutgers LB Olakunle Fatukasi
We just couldn’t resist pairing a Rutgers player with the Patriots, especially now with Belichick’s buddy, Greg Schiano, back in charge of the Scarlet Knights. But this is more than just a lazy pairing.
Fatukasi is one of the faster linebackers in the Big Ten, and the Patriots’ lack of speed at the position this year has been glaring. Belichick has been forced to play former undrafted free agent Terez Hall quite a bit recently and use safeties up in the box more. Lumbering Ja’Whaun Bentley is more of a two-down run stopper and can’t be trusted in coverage readily.
At 6-foot and roughly 225 pounds, Fatukasi is on the smaller side for a linebacker. Typically, Belichick has sought more size at the position.
But all he needs to do is flip on last week’s Michigan tape — in which Fatukasi played all 97 snaps of the triple-OT thriller — to see his 17 tackles, two sacks and one pass defended. He also had a great early series in which he laid a great QB hit on a blitz that led to a third-down overthrow, followed by a tackle at the line of scrimmage for a fourth-down stop.
Fatukasi, the younger brother of New York Jets DL Folorunso Fatukasi, was everywhere in that game. He reportedly is a humble player who carries a special-teams mentality. Perfect fit in New England.
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