NFL draft: In another loaded WR class, teams wrestle with when to select pass catcher
The running back market has been in decline for years, and it may have hit a new low this offseason when five of the best rushers in the NFL were deemed too old, too expensive or simply not essential enough to keep.
Saquon Barkley signed with the Philadelphia Eagles after six seasons with the New York Giants, Josh Jacobs left the Las Vegas Raiders for the Green Bay Packers, Derrick Henry went from the Tennessee Titans to the Baltimore Ravens, Tony Pollard relaced Henry in Tennessee after five seasons with the Dallas Cowboys, and Austin Ekeler left the Los Angeles Chargers for the Washington Commanders.
No one blinked an eye that all five backs — four of them with multiple 1,000-yard seasons — changed teams. Running backs are among the most replaceable positions in the NFL, and capable starters can often be found in the later rounds (Pollard was a fourth-round pick in 2019) or undrafted free agency (Ekeler).
But the plight of the running back, once among the most-coveted positions in the NFL, has caused some to wonder what the future holds for another offensive skill position brimming with so many options that top producers are often found later in the draft — wide receiver.
“It’s funny you said that because I’ve just recently been thinking the same thing,” former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager and current SiriusXM NFL analyst Mark Dominik said. “At some point, Wide Receiver 2 and Wide Receiver 3 are going to become interchangeable and you’re not going to pay those players because if there’s one position as we see every draft class, it’s wide receiver feels deep and it feels like you can go get a guy.”
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Three receivers are expected to go in the first 10 or so picks of next week’s draft: Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze.
Beyond that upper crust of pass catchers, draft analysts agree, is a group of two dozen or so receivers who make up the deepest talent pool in this year’s draft.
LSU’s Brian Thomas headlines the next tier of receivers, and is a likely first-round pick, followed by a taster’s choice of another dozen or so prospects who could go anywhere from the first to the third round.
Last year, 14 of the 32 receivers drafted were picked on the draft’s first two days, about in line with historical norms.
“When I started doing this back in 2010 for Bleacher Report, the belief was you waited until the second round to draft wide receivers,” ESPN analyst Matt Miller said. “It was an important position, but it was one where the value really wasn’t in Round 1. There’d been a lot of Round 1 misses, a lot of Round 2 hits. Guys like, at that time, Alshon Jeffrey, Michael Thomas, DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown. There’d been this run of Round 2 receivers. Deebo Samuel was in that mix, too, and so there was that idea of wait on a wide receiver. There’s a lot of good ones, you can wait on one. That kind of got flipped on its head the last five years it feels like.
“But I do think that’s an interesting conversation now, especially as the salaries are exploding for wide receivers. It is that question of, OK, if we draft one in the top five, he’s still a value based on how much we’re paying him, but you need a lot of production from a player to justify him being a top-five pick. Wide receiver production in the first year has gotten better, certainly better than it was 10 years ago, but it’s still at I think a spot where it takes a special player like a Marvin Harrison Jr. to warrant drafting that early. So it is fascinating to see what the strategy will be.”
Last year, of the 11 receivers who caught at least 100 passes, nine were picked after Round 1 or went undrafted, including Detroit Lions leading receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, a fourth-round pick in 2021.
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Of the 10 highest-paid receivers in the NFL based on average annual value, only two — DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles and Calvin Ridley of the Tennessee Titans — were first-round picks.
That will change in the coming months when Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase get new deals, but some teams have made a habit of passing on receivers early in the draft, developing the ones they take later, then letting them walk when the money gets too big only to try and do it again.
“I look at Kansas City and everyone knew they needed a receiver last year, they wait and get Rashee Rice in the second round,” Miller said. “He becomes their leading pass catcher outside of Travis Kelce. It’ll be fun to see what Buffalo does this year at 28. We all think they need to draft a wide receiver. We’ll see what they do, if they actually draft one in the first round or if they feel like there’s better value waiting until Round 2 and maybe even taking a couple swings at that. Maybe take a guy in Round 2 and a guy in Round 4. Green Bay has had a lot of success doing that, not drafting receivers in the first round but they’ll double up or even triple up at times. They did that recently and it really, really worked for them.”
The Lions are among the teams in the market for a receiver this year, and while they won’t be in the mix for blue-chip talents like Harrison, Nabers and Odunze, they could consider one with the 29th pick of the first round.
Thomas likely will be gone by then, but Florida State’s Keon Coleman, Texas’ A.D. Mitchell and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette, who took a pre-draft visit to Detroit, are expected to come off the board in that range and would fit as complements to St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
The Lions are expected to make St. Brown one of the highest-paid receivers in the NFL in the coming months, but they let Josh Reynolds, their No. 2 or 3 receiver last year, walk this offseason without much effort to keep him, and they have another financial decision upcoming on Williams — one that may be made easier by whatever they do in this year's draft.
“As you’re constructing your roster and as these salaries for quarterbacks and tackles, defensive linemen, corners, whichever, continue to rise, someone’s going to pay, and to think you can pay Wide Receiver 2 and 3 in the $13 million, $10 million range, whatever it is, $8 million range, I think that’s going to be the position that’s hit by the salary cap squeeze,” Dominik said. “I think Wide Receiver 1, yes, all in, let’s go (pay him). But after Wide Receiver 1, I think you try to replace that position now going forward in the draft and you spend that money on other spots on your team.”
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on X and Instagram at @davebirkett.
NFL draft preview: Receivers/tight ends
On the roster: WR — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Antoine Green, Maurice Alexander, Tom Kennedy, Tre’Quan Smith, Daurice Fountain. TE — Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, James Mitchell, Shane Zylstra.
Dave Birkett’s top 3 WR prospects: 1. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State; 2. Malik Nabers, LSU; 3. Rome Odunze, Washington. Dave Birkett’s top 3 TE prospects: 1. Brock Bowers, Georgia; 2. Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas; Ben Sinnott, Kansas State.
Other players with Michigan ties: WR — Roman Wilson, Michigan; Tre Mosley, Michigan State; Hamze El-Zayat, Eastern Michigan; Tanner Knue, Eastern Michigan; Derrick Hinton Jr., Saginaw Valley State; Cornelius Johnson, Michigan. Leroy Thomas, Western Michigan. TE — AJ Barner, Michigan; Jaylan Franklin, Michigan State.
Day 3 sleeper who could interest Lions: WR — Luke McCaffrey, Rice. TE — Barner.
Recent Lions draft picks at WR: 2023 — Antoine Green (seventh round). 2022 — Jameson Williams (first round). 2021 — Amon-Ra St. Brown (fourth round). 2020 — Quintez Cephus (fifth round). 2019 — Travis Fulgham (sixth round). Recent Lions draft picks at TE: 2023 — Sam LaPorta (second round). 2022 — James Mitchell (fifth round). 2021 — none. 2020 — none. 2019 — T.J. Hockenson (first round); Isaac Nauta (seventh round).
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: NFL draft stacked at WR; Detroit Lions could go pass catcher Round 1
