NFL betting: Why we're fading the Rams this season

It's easy to fall in love with the Rams. Watching a team of so many high-profile superstars deliver in the most significant postseason moments made us all believers in destiny. Sean McVay became the youngest coach ever to win a Super Bowl, while Matthew Stafford justified the blockbuster offseason trade that forever changed his legacy.

It doesn't matter if it's Stafford, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey or even Odell Beckham Jr. There was something special about seeing this compilation of great players seize the opportunity to rewrite their story. You couldn't script a better ending to Stafford's career after more than a decade of disappointment in Detroit. However, it's not the end. Like so many other Super Bowl winners of the past, the Los Angeles Rams are back this year trying to recreate their magical season.

One lesson we have all learned from Hollywood is that the sequel is never as good as the original movie. The Rams added some big stars in the offseason in Bobby Wagner and Allen Robinson. But they also lost edge rusher Von Miller and two critical contributors to their offensive line. Andrew Whitworth was PFF's highest-graded pass-blocking tackle last season, while Austin Corbett only allowed three sacks throughout the year.

Sean McVay talks with QB Matthew Stafford (left) and Allen Robinson II during drills on Day 2 of the 2022 LA Rams mini-camp on June 8. (David Crane/MediaNews Group/Getty Images)
Sean McVay talks with QB Matthew Stafford (left) and Allen Robinson II during drills on Day 2 of the 2022 LA Rams mini-camp on June 8. (David Crane/MediaNews Group/Getty Images) (MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images via Getty Images)

Matthew Stafford's health remains a concern

If the Rams take a step back in pass protection, it will impact the offense in multiple ways. Los Angeles had the second-best explosive pass-play rate at 11% last season, and a big part of that was Stafford's ability to punish teams that blitz him. Per Football Outsiders, they averaged 7.6 yards per play, and Stafford racked up 19 touchdowns to only one interception when facing the blitz. But if opposing defenses can generate pressure with their front four, they will see fewer opportunities for those big plays. And more pressure is going to lead to more hits on the quarterback.

The Rams have to protect Matthew Stafford at all costs. Last season, he battled through multiple injuries, including ankle and back sprains. He admirably powered through the season, but the veteran quarterback's injuries continue to pile up. His most recent elbow issue is concerning and raises the question of whether he will miss time at some point.

Los Angeles Rams Under 10.5 wins (-115)

I was worried about whether Stafford could remain healthy before the elbow issue, so this recent development only heightened my skepticism. However, a few other reasons pushed me towards fading the Rams. The schedule always plays a role when evaluating win totals. Despite having some beneficial nuances, the Rams have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. They catch a break by playing a "road" game in their home stadium, but seeing the Chargers on your schedule in any capacity is a far cry from a benefit. The Rams rank fourth best in terms of odds of winning the Super Bowl at +1100. Every other team ranked in the top seven is on the schedule, with five of the six games on the road. Buffalo on opening night is the only team out of that group they play at home.

  • vs. Buffalo (+600)

  • at Tampa Bay (+750)

  • at Kansas City (+1000)

  • at Green Bay (+1200)

  • at LA Chargers (+1400)

  • at San Francisco (+1600)

Last season, the Rams only played three teams that qualified for the playoffs on the road and lost two of those games. The road schedule is much more challenging this season, especially considering every team is circling them on the calendar. Defensive coordinators spent the offseason trying to devise new ways to stop their offense. That comes with the territory when you're the defending Super Bowl champions.

It's hard to stay on top in the NFL for a sustained period, and the Rams' ability to recognize that made their Super Bowl run special. Unfortunately, it's also why I think they have a hard time coming back with that same hunger that fueled last season's run. The Rams defied all the detractors who scoffed at their all-in approach and spent the offseason doubling down on the same philosophy. I am betting this is the season where it doesn't pay off. Rolling the dice with a lack of depth is one thing, but the consequences can be season-altering when it impacts the offensive line. There are enough warning signs for me to bet the Rams' season goes sideways at some point, and it's best to get in now on the under with the odds shaded in that direction.

Stats provided by PFF, Football Outsiders and Clevanalytics.com

Advertisement