NFL betting: Week 7 survivor pool picks
The bloodbaths in NFL survivor pools this year have been so constant and massive that they could fill up every Red Cross blood bank on the planet. More than 56% of entries in Week 6 tested positive for getting knocked out, as three of the four most popular picks lost.
Let's take a quick look at last week's donation before we tap into Week 7:
Week 6 picks
Best Bets: 0-2 (YTD: 5-5)
Leans: 1-0 (YTD: 8-1)
Traps to avoid: 2 eliminations avoided (YTD: 11)
On to the Week 7 picks!
BEST BETS
New England Patriots (-8) vs. Chicago Bears
It's usually a good idea to fade an overwhelmingly popular pick, but pools have already thinned down drastically, the Patriots have little future value, and I hate virtually every pick outside of the top two this week.
Bill Belichick versus Justin Fields is a mismatch made in heaven. The Bears quarterback owns the lowest completion percentage in the league (54.8%) and is tied with Carson Wentz for the most sacks taken (23). Even the world's worst hoarders have to cringe at Fields' reluctance to get rid of the football. Denver is the only team in the NFL averaging less points per game than the Bears (15.5). If you want a snapshot of how dysfunctional this offense is, they were hit with a delay of game penalty on their very first offensive play of the game in Week 5. New England's defense has been extremely solid this year, ranking seventh in DVOA and surrendering the eighth-fewest points per drive. Chicago's offense ranks 30th in DVOA.
The Bears run defense has been getting rocked to the tune of 163 rushing yards per game. That sets up nicely for Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots, who are third-best in rushing EPA. Belichick is undefeated in his last five outings versus Chicago and I expect him to make it six in a row on Monday night.
New England is the most popular pick this week, at 28.65%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers offense continues to crumble like a Bojangle's biscuit. It ranks last in DVOA, points per drive, EPA per play, success rate, and watchability. If there's a word in the English language to describe a bad miracle, that was P.J. Walker's Week 6. Carolina's QB somehow ended his day with a negative average depth of target. This offense stinks and they're about to get rolled by an elite Tampa Bay defense.
For as much consternation as there has been concerning the Bucs offense, they rank sixth in dropback success rate and eighth in overall success rate. Tom Brady and crew won't have to do much in this game to outscore the Panthers. Since he's become a Buccaneer, Brady is 4-0 against his NFC South rival.
Just under 19% of entries are on the Bucs, making them the second-most popular pick. Tampa's future value lies mainly in home games versus the Seahawks and Panthers.
LEANS
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. New York Giants
Are the Giants the most fraudulent 5-1 team in the history of the NFL? They're 2.3 wins over expected and their defense ranks 30th in DVOA. I've been impressed by the offense Brian Daboll has cooked up with the limited ingredients in his pantry, but Jacksonville's 10th-ranked defense is likely to spoil his dinner party.
Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas and center Jon Feliciano are both banged up and questionable to play. Thomas is the best offensive lineman in football right now, so it would be huge for the Jags if he missed this contest or played at less than 100%. Even with Thomas dominating, New York's offensive line ranks 25th in Pass Block Win Rate and 22nd in Run Block Win Rate. Jacksonville's defense ranks first in Pass Rush Win Rate and seventh in Run Stop Win Rate.
New York is surrendering 144.8 yards per game on the ground, fifth-worst in the NFL, while the Jaguars are averaging 136.7 rushing yards per game on the season and 150 rushing yards per game over their last three outings. This could be the Travis Etienne show.
If you have multiple entries remaining or if there are still a lot of players in your pool, this is an attractive leverage play, with only 0.07% of entries locked in on the Jags. There isn't much future value in Jacksonville.
TRAPS TO AVOID
Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Detroit Lions
There are just too many question marks in this game. Detroit is coming off a bye, key pieces like Amon-Ra St. Brown should be healthier, and who knows how Dak Prescott will look in his first game back from a broken thumb. I'll wait to see how these teams and players fare before I take or fade them.
Nearly 18% of entries are on the Cowboys, who are the third-most popular pick this week.
Las Vegas Raiders (-7) vs. Houston Texans
The Raiders defense is giving up the fourth-most points per drive and that was before cornerback Nate Hobbs went on injured reserve. It doesn't sound like tight end Darren Waller is going to suit up, either. Houston's defense is playing surprisingly well under Cover 2 king Lovie Smith, and rookie running back Dameon Pierce is a certified stud.
Las Vegas is the fourth-most popular pick in Week 7, with 16.58% on the silver and black.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith's brand of bullyball is working so well, he used the lunch money he stole from the Niners last week to treat his offensive linemen to beers. Cincinnati's defense is formidable against the pass, but they rank 30th in Run Stop Win Rate. Consider the run established.
The Bengals are the fifth-most popular selection, at 4.38%.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, PFF, Football Outsiders, ESPN, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
