NFL betting: Take the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s season-long passing prop

Head coach Mike McDaniel has been beneficial to the development of Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In the 2022 season, Tagovailoa had more passing yards and a higher average to go along with his best season of total passing touchdowns and QB rating.

However, there is still one aspect lacking: durability. Since entering the NFL, Tagovailoa has had a high ankle sprain, thumb sprain, chest rib fracture and finger fracture. His two most notable injuries were highly publicized concussions — in Week 4 of 2022-23 he was stretchered off the field and the other one was flagged as a grade 3 concussion, which left him out of the final three games of that season and even contemplating retirement.

The league has tried to improve player safety but those changes haven't been enough to keep Tagovailoa on the field for a full season. This offseason, he said he trained in jiu-jitsu in order to become more durable as a quarterback.

Bet: Tua Tagovailoa under 3850.5 passing yards (-120)

Quarterback and offensive line health

Tagovailoa last played a full season of football in 2018 at Alabama. I am not predicting that he will once again miss time from injury. However, the offensive line is the weakest unit in terms of projected unit rankings.

Tackle Terron Armstead is perhaps the most important player in front of Tagovailoa, allowing just a 3.4% pressure rate. His problem also is staying healthy. During a four-game stretch in which he missed time, Miami's left tackles allowed a 14% pressure rate. Armstead now has back-to-back seasons missing multiple games.

Tagovailoa ranked first in both adjusted yards per attempt and deep ball completion percentage. My concern (because of the offensive line) is that he also ranked second in pressured catchable pass rate at 36.5%.

Perhaps it was from injury, but you saw Tagovailoa's completion percentage dip as the season progressed. He started the year completing at least 69% of this throws in three straight games and finished the year throwing 64% or worse in five straight.

It could also be that the defenses adjusted to McDaniel's offense or that Miami had three straight road games during that span.

2023 outlook

This season will not get any easier for Miami. The Dolphins have three road games in the first four weeks. In 17 games, the Dolphins offense will face 13 defenses that ranked inside the top half in passing yards allowed last year — and seven of them were top 10.

Miami will also face 13 defenses that ranked in the top half for yards per pass allowed. Tagovailoa could struggle early as three of those defenses are in the first four weeks, followed by three defenses in the final four weeks of the season. That's a tough opening and closing stretch for backing an OVER prop.

On top of that, the health of the offensive line and Tagovailoa will be tested while facing 10 defenses ranked in the top 10 in quarterback sack percentage. If both Armstead and Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for Miami. However, due to the schedule and the strength of defensive opponents in the secondary (not to mention pressure rate), I am not confident that either will complete a full season. Pessimistic? No, realistic.