NFL betting: Recapping the NFL awards from a betting perspective

On Thursday night, the NFL announced the winners of their end of season awards. It's a particularly exciting day for bettors who have been waiting for months to cash tickets on Justin Jefferson to win offensive player of the year and Nick Bosa to win defensive player of the year. Every offseason, it's fun to put a few bucks down on some end of season award bets.

Now that we know who won each award, let's recap the winners from a betting perspective. Which players opened as favorites to win their respective award? Were they popular bets entering the season? And how did their odds move over the course of the season?

Mahomes wins second MVP

Patrick Mahomes entered the season widely considered as one of the very best quarterbacks in the world. Most would have put him on top of their rankings. However, he wasn't the favorite to win MVP entering the season. Josh Allen had that role. Mahomes was tied with Tom Brady for the second best odds to win MVP entering the season at +800.

Mahomes played second-fiddle to Allen for most of the first half of the season. Allen then began faltering, which opened the door for Mahomes and Jalen Hurts to enter the picture. Mahomes first became the betting favorite to win MVP after Week 9. After Hurts' injury in Week 15, Mahomes became a sizable -275 favorite.

Mahomes came through for his backers, and there was a bunch of them. Mahomes was the third most popular bet to win MVP entering the season. Only Allen and Russell Wilson received more love from bettors.

Bettors cash in with Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson was already one of the best receivers in football entering the season, but under a new offensive coach in Kevin O'Connell, it felt like he was primed to take another step. Jefferson opened at 20-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year. Those odds were tied with Justin Herbert for tenth best in the league.

However, the love for Jefferson came in early and often. Jefferson was the most popular bet to win the award at BetMGM in the preseason. He received nearly double the amount of love that Jonathan Taylor got, who was the second most popular preseason bet. As a result, Jefferson went from 20-to-1 to 12-to-1 to win the award without even playing a real snap.

Jalen Hurts was the betting favorite to win the award for most of the first half of the season. Jefferson first became a slight favorite to win the award after Week 10. After three straight games with 11+ catches and 120+ yards, Jefferson became a -800 favorite to win the award after Week 16.

Micah Parsons was DPOY...until he wasn't

Entering the season, both Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa were in the top-five favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year alongside Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald.

Parsons was the early choice of bettors. Entering the season, nearly 20% of all bets were backing Parsons to win the award. No other player received over 8% of bets.

It started off well for those who backed Parsons. He quickly became the favorite to win the award. He was an odds-on favorite by Week 5. By Week 9, Parsons was -250 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Those odds made him a prohibitive favorite.

However, slowly but surely, Nick Bosa became too much to ignore. He kept coming and coming. Entering Week 15, it was basically a pick’em between Parsons and Bosa in terms of odds to win the award.

Late in the season, the 49ers defense was dominant and the Cowboys’ defense struggled. As a result, Bosa pulled away. Bosa was a -1100 favorite by the end of Week 16. Bosa ended up getting 46 first place votes. Parsons finished second in voting, but received zero first place votes.

Jets duo sweeps rookie awards

Garrett Wilson took home Offensive Rookie of the Year while his teammate Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner did the same on the defensive side of the ball. It was a great night for the Jets’ franchise to highlight their young talent.

The offensive rookie of the year award was all over the place throughout the entire season. Wilson opened with 10-to-1 odds to win the award which was tied for the sixth best odds of any rookie. However, Wilson received little preseason hype as his quarterback, Zach Wilson, had a preseason injury. As a result, his odds dropped. He opened the regular season with 20-to-1 odds to win the award. Twelve rookies were more popular bets than Garrett Wilson, including Malik Willis, Skyy Moore and Romeo Doubs. Kenny Pickett and George Pickens entered the regular season as co-favorites to win offensive rookie of the year.

Early on, it was Chris Olave and Drake London who became the favorites to win the award. Quickly, a Jets’ rookie took over. However, that wasn’t Wilson. It was Breece Hall, who was dominating games on the ground for New York. Unfortunately, Hall tore his ACL. After Hall’s injury, Seattle running back Kenneth Walker took over as the betting favorite to win the award. However, Walker missed some time due to injury as well, and that gave Wilson the opportunity to seize the favorite role. Wilson first became the favorite after Walker’s injury. By Week 16, the Jets’ wide receiver was -200 to win the award.

The ride wasn’t as wild on the defensive side of the ball. Sauce Gardner also opened with 10-to-1 odds to win the award during the offseason. He was the second most popular bet behind Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions. After two weeks, Hutchinson was a +250 favorite while Sauce was up to 16-to-1 to win the award. Quickly, things shifted. By Week 6, Gardner became the betting favorite to win defensive rookie of the year. By Week 9, he was an odds-on favorite. In Week 16, Gardner was a -1200 favorite to win the award.

Geno Smith goes from off the board to winner’s circle

When the betting market opened for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, eventual winner Geno Smith wasn’t even in the mix. Oddsmakers didn’t post odds on the Seattle quarterback to win the award.

Derrick Henry opened as the betting favorite to win the award. Names like Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Baker Mayfield were near the top of the odds leaderboard. None of those players ended up being serious contenders.

Christian McCaffrey was bettors’ favorite choice to win the award in the preseason. He opened with 10-to-1 odds and received nearly 22% of all bets. McCaffrey was in the picture, but Saquon Barkley spent most of the first half of the season as the betting favorite to win the award.

Barkley was a -250 favorite to win comeback player of the year at the end of Week 6. Coincidentally, that’s the same time oddsmakers posted odds for Geno Smith to win the award. Smith was +600 to win the award.

Geno became the betting favorite to win the award after Week 9. For much of the second half of the season, Smith, McCaffrey and Barkley jockeyed back-and-forth amongst each other to become the betting favorite. After Week 16, all three players had odds of +250 or better to win the award.

Smith ended up winning the award, garnering 28 of 50 first place votes. This is one of two awards the betting market never had a full handle on. Smith ended up going from off the board to the winner’s circle.

Daboll makes oddsmakers look smart

Brian Daboll opened the offseason with 14-to-1 odds to win NFL Coach of the Year. Most, including myself, couldn’t figure out why Daboll opened as a co-favorite to win the award. Our expectations for the Giants were that low. Nevertheless, Daboll opened as a co-favorite alongside Brandon Staley, Doug Pederson and Kevin O’Connell.

By the time the season came around, the Detroit Lions’ hype had gotten out of control. Dan Campbell was far and away the most popular bet to win the award and he had taken over as the betting favorite. Daboll was the 13th most popular bet to win the award. He really wasn’t on the radar. Coaches like Nathaniel Hackett and Frank Reich got more bets to win Coach of the Year than Daboll. Neither made it through the season.

Mike McDaniel was the early favorite to win the award once the regular season got underway, as his Miami Dolphins got off to a 3-0 start. Shortly thereafter, Nick Sirianni took over the favorite role. He held that role for a long time. He was up to a -200 favorite in December. With the Giants mired in a midseason 1-4-1 slump, Daboll’s odds to win the award shot up to 30-to-1.

However, the Giants clinched a playoff spot and Daniel Jones was developing extremely well. Daboll’s stock began to rise again. Sirianni lost two games late in the season to open the door. Kyle Shanahan took over as the betting favorite as his 49ers were dominating games with their third string quarterback. However, names like Daboll, Pederson, and Campbell stuck around as their teams made surprising late season pushes.

When the regular season ended, Shanahan, Sirianni, Daboll and Pederson all had legitimate cases to win the award. There wasn’t much separating them in the odds. Voters decided to reward Daboll with the coach of the year award. Maybe there was a reason he opened as a favorite after all.