NFL betting recap: Detroit Lions prove oddsmakers right, cover for sixth straight week

When you first checked the betting lines for Week 14 of the NFL season early last week, one line immediately jumped off the page. The 5-7 Detroit Lions quickly became the betting favorite over the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings. Sure, Detroit was the home team, but it was still a line that seemed awfully suspicious.

The Vikings have won a lot of one-score games this season and their analytical profile is far from that of a typical elite team, so some have been questioning the validity of their record. Even if you acknowledge that they might not be as elite as their record suggests, most would still have them favored over the Detroit Lions.

If you bet the Vikings, you probably didn't feel great about it. It felt like you were missing something. That's probably why a lot of people went the other way. The Lions-Vikings game was the most bet-on game of the early window. Overall at BetMGM, 56% of the bets and 72% of the money was backing the Lions to cover as a 1.5-point home favorite. Additionally, 78% of bets were on the game to go over 51.5-points.

The teams exchanged touchdowns in the first quarter with Jameson Williams scoring the first touchdown of his career for the Lions before Dalvin Cook answered for Minnesota. D.J. Chark gave the Lions a 14-7 lead with a 48-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Late in the first half, it looked like the Vikings were going to answer and tie the game, but Cook fumbled inside the 5-yard line.

The Vikings opened the second half with the ball but punted. On Detroit's ensuing drive, Jared Goff found Josh Reynolds to open up a 21-7 lead. This lead ended up being too much for Minnesota to overcome. Kirk Cousins found Adam Thielen for a 23-yard touchdown to cut the lead to eight points, but Detroit immediately answered with a Justin Jackson touchdown to extend the lead to 15.

The teams exchanged field goals before Cousins found K.J. Osborn to cut Detroit's lead back to eight. After an unsuccessful onside kick, Minnesota's defense needed a stop, but the Lions had a trick up their sleeve to make sure they didn't get it. On third-and-7, Goff hit right tackle Penei Sewell for a nine-yard gain. With 22 seconds left, the Lions kicked a field goal to extend their lead to 11 and that's how the game ended.

The 23-point explosion in the fourth quarter helped the game go over the total, but most importantly, the Lions pulled off the victory and cover. Detroit now sits at 6-7 after winning five of its last six games. After losses by the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, suddenly, the playoffs appear like a realistic goal for Detroit.

As they make their push toward the postseason, the Lions have been money for bettors. They've covered in six straight games. Over that stretch, they've won five games outright, including three games as the underdog. Their one outright loss over this stretch was on a last-second field goal by the Bills on Thanksgiving. They covered as a 9.5-point underdog.

Next up for the Lions is a trip to MetLife Stadium where they are just a 1-point road underdog against the New York Jets. Can they keep the streak going both on the field and the betting window?

Jets use late safety, field goal to get backdoor cover

Earlier this season, the Jets did a good job of shutting down the Bills and beat them outright as a 10.5-point home underdog. This time around, with the venue changed to western New York, the Bills were 10-point home favorites.

Bettors liked the Jets to keep it close. At BetMGM, 68% of bets and 59% of the money was backing New York to cover as a 10-point underdog. The Jets have been surprising all season long, and they have the defense to keep them in every game.

Through the first half, the defense was doing just that. Jets bettors must have been feeling good. It looked like we were getting ready to go to halftime scoreless. However, on a fourth-and-1 from their own 39-yard line with 1:17 left in the half, the Bills lined up to go for it. They likely weren't going to snap the ball. Then, Jets' linebacker C.J. Mosley decided to channel his inner-Troy Polamalu.

The Bills took advantage of the egregious mistake and drove down the field to find the end-zone before halftime. Dawson Knox leaped, flipped and somehow held on to the ball while just barely crossing the goal line.

The Jets got the ball to open the second half, and they evened the score with a 13-yard rushing touchdown from Zonovan "Bam" Knight. Jets bettors were feeling good. Outside of one mistake, the defense was balling. The score was tied in the second half and they were getting ten points.

However, the Bills answered with a touchdown as Josh Allen scored from five yards out. Meanwhile, the Bills' defense was putting on a clinic of its own as it literally tried breaking Mike White in half. White was in and out of the game multiple times in the second half as he was taking massive shot after massive shot to the midsection.

On one play when White was out of the game, the Bills' defense took advantage. On second-and-10 from midfield, Joe Flacco fumbled to set the Bills up for a field goal. After another Jets' punt, the Bills tacked on another field goal. Suddenly, the Bills were up 13 points and covering the spread.

After another Jets' punt, the Bills were pinned deep. The Jets' defense stepped up and forced a Bills punt from their own end zone. The Jets blocked the punt, but it rolled through the back of the end zone for a safety. Buffalo's lead was down to 11, but they were still covering.

Off the ensuing free-kick, the Jets' offense drove into scoring range before Michael Carter fumbled. It was a tough break for Jets bettors as they were well within field-goal range. Nevertheless, the Bills punted the ball back to the Jets and they still had life.

On a fourth-and-1 from the Bills' 9-yard line, the Jets faced a decision. They needed two scores to tie, so Robert Saleh chose to kick the field goal to cut it to a one-possession game. The Jets then got the ball back and couldn't tie the game, but did enough for their bettors.

A late safety from a blocked punt and then a field goal isn't the script most envisioned to get the Jets within the number when they bet them. However, they'll certainly take it. The Jets improve to 8-5 against the spread this season.

Cowboys survive epic embarrassment

The Dallas Cowboys closed as a 17.5-point home favorite over the Houston Texans. It made sense. The Cowboys have dominated teams in recent weeks while the Texans have looked non-competitive. The Cowboys are viewed as a Super Bowl contender while the Texans have one win. It was the biggest spread of the NFL season to date.

Despite the epic mismatch on paper, the game was way too close for comfort for Cowboys fans. Dallas bettors never had a chance of covering.

The Cowboys opened the scoring with a Tony Pollard touchdown, but the Texans immediately answered. The Texans led 10-7 after the first quarter and they led 20-17 at halftime. Still, nobody actually thought the Cowboys were in danger of losing the game. Most expected them to pull away in the second half, win comfortably and maybe even cover the spread.

That never happened. It was a low-scoring second half as the teams exchanged field goals. Houston maintained a 23-20 lead. The Texans punted the ball back to Dallas with eight minutes left, pinning them at the 1-yard line. Despite the circumstances, the Cowboys were down just three points and everyone on the planet expected them to put together one drive and get the win.

However, that plan almost came undone when Dak Prescott threw an interception that the Texans returned to the 4-yard line. On second down, it looked like Chris Moore was going to score to put the game away, but Carlos Watkins made a game-saving tackle to get him down just short of the end zone. The defense stepped up and pulled off a goal-line stand.

Prescott needed to go 98 yards. A field goal would force overtime, while the touchdown would likely win Dallas the game. After struggling almost all game, Prescott finally put together the drive he needed. Long completions to Dalton Schultz twice and Noah Brown set up an Ezekiel Elliott rushing touchdown with 46 seconds left.

Davis Mills was intercepted on the ensuing Houston drive, and the Cowboys survived. Of course, they didn't come close to covering as a 17.5-point favorite, but they avoided the biggest upset of the NFL season. Those big spreads are always scary in the NFL when you're laying the points, and this is just the latest example of why. Clearly, the Cowboys overlooked the Texans and were nowhere near the top of their game, meaning their bettors never had a chance.

Chiefs can't cover despite 27-0 lead

The Denver Broncos have been the biggest disappointment of the season. Russell Wilson has come nowhere close to meeting expectations or giving the Broncos' a decent return on their investment. On Sunday, the Broncos closed as 9-point home underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City raced out to a 27-0 lead in the second quarter. Based on what we've seen from Denver's offense this season, it looked like Chiefs bettors were going to have a no-sweat winner. However, Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions late in the first half and the Broncos turned both of those turnovers into Jerry Jeudy touchdowns. Suddenly, Denver was down just 13 points at halftime.

Denver opened the second half with Marlon Mack housing a screen pass for 66-yards. All of a sudden, it was a 6 point game. Late in the third quarter, Mahomes found JuJu Smith-Schuster for a touchdown to extend the Chiefs' lead back to 13 points.

On Denver's ensuing drive, Russell Wilson scrambled for 14 yards on a third-and-11 but took a hit that concussed him and knocked him out of the game. Brett Rypien was forced to enter on first-and-goal from the 1-yard line. A false start, two incompletions and a play for no-gain set up a fourth-and-goal on the 7-yard line. Denver went for it and Rypien found Jeudy for his third touchdown of the game to cut the margin back to 6 points.

The Denver defense stepped up, forcing a punt and a third Mahomes interception, but Rypien and the offense couldn't find a go-ahead score. The Chiefs ended up with the 34-28 victory. Denver didn't get the victory, but they got the cover which seemed improbable when the score was 27-0 early on. Chiefs bettors can't be happy with Mahomes and his three interceptions, which let Denver back in the game.