NFL betting: Patrick Mahomes is big favorite for MVP after Jalen Hurts' injury
In 2017, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz had a great shot to win NFL MVP. He was probably the favorite but tore his left ACL in Week 14. While the Eagles went on to do pretty well in the playoffs with Nick Foles, Wentz lost out on his shot to win MVP. It went to Tom Brady instead.
Unfortunately for Jalen Hurts, it seems like we're heading down a familiar path this season.
Hurts took over as the MVP betting favorite after Week 14. He was the favorite on Monday morning after Week 15 too. Then suddenly the odds went down at BetMGM, and then news broke that Hurts had a separated shoulder and will likely miss some time.
There's no definitive news on how much time Hurts will miss, but oddsmakers think it'll be enough for Patrick Mahomes to win MVP.
MVP odds after Jalen Hurts' injury
Hurts had the second-best MVP odds at BetMGM when they went back up. Mahomes was the huge favorite:
Mahomes -275
Hurts +450
Josh Allen +600
Joe Burrow +600
All other players were 125-to-1 or longer odds.
If Hurts misses more than a week it'll be tough for him to win. It's rare for a player to win MVP after missing multiple games, though Joe Montana won in 1989 despite missing three games due to injury. Given that the other three contenders all have good cases, it would be hard for Hurts to hold them off if he's not playing.
Hurts will likely get at least a few votes even if he misses time. When he separated his shoulder, he was having a tremendous season. The Eagles were 13-1. He had 3,472 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns, 747 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. Even if Hurts misses the rest of the regular season he has a reasonable MVP argument.
He'll just be very unlikely to win it. That's a bummer for those bettors who had Hurts MVP tickets. Hurts was the fourth-most popular MVP bet as of last week, with some tickets as high as 40-to-1 from the offseason.
Patrick Mahomes isn't an MVP lock
Mahomes also had a great argument to win MVP before Hurts' injury, though was losing ground because of the Eagles' record and probably some recency bias. Mahomes has been phenomenal all season but Hurts was the hotter name lately. Narratives often play a big factor in who wins MVP. Mahomes might not have to worry about that anymore.
Just because Mahomes has a big lead now doesn't mean he'll win MVP if Hurts falls back in the race. Allen is the player who might be the best value in the betting odds.
Here is a comparison of Mahomes and Allen this season:
Mahomes: 4,496 yards, 35 TD, 11 INT, 313 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD
Allen: 3,857 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT, 705 rushing yards, 6 rushing TD
The key to the race could be whether the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs get the No. 1 seed. If the Bills hold off the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed — if the Bills win out, they'll get the top spot — then Allen's case becomes very good. He'd have similar stats, a win over the Chiefs in Kansas City and the Bills would have a better regular-season finish. The stats now are similar, with Allen's rushing excellence helping bridge the gap with Mahomes' fantastic passing numbers. If the Bills hold off the Chiefs, it's probably because Allen plays well in Buffalo's final three games.
Whether it's Mahomes, Allen or even Burrow taking home MVP this season, it's rough for Hurts if he doesn't win it. He was putting together a fantastic season and had a great shot. That opportunity might not come around again. Ask Wentz.
