NFL betting: Panthers have a shot to win NFC South over Tom Brady's Buccaneers

Through this season, it seemed there was a good chance Tom Brady would retire after a playoff game, and probably a playoff loss. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have looked like the future default champion in the terrible NFC South for months.

But what if there is no playoff game for Brady and the Buccaneers? It's possible.

There also is the question of whether Brady will keep playing next season at age 46, but that has nothing to do with the 2022 NFC South race. The Buccaneers have played themselves into a position in which a division title is not assured anymore, even though BetMGM's odds have them as a big favorite.

It's time to consider whether the Carolina Panthers can beat out the Bucs, and cash a nice ticket for bettors in doing so.

NFC South race tightens up

Week 14 was an interesting one in the NFC South. The Buccaneers looked awful in a 35-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. They've looked bad most of the season but because they have a ton of recognizable stars and play in an easy division, everyone has assumed they'll make the playoffs and turn it on there. The Bucs suddenly playing well in the postseason seems more farfetched as the weeks pass.

And they might not even make the playoffs. The Panthers won last week at the Seattle Seahawks and that pulled Carolina to within a game of the Bucs in the NFC South race. Carolina is 5-8 and Tampa Bay is 6-7. BetMGM's odds have the Buccaneers at -350 to win the division. Carolina is +375. The 5-8 Atlanta Falcons and 4-9 New Orleans Saints are still alive, but the Panthers' win over the Buccaneers gives them a more realistic shot at the division title. Tampa Bay is 1-0 against Atlanta and New Orleans this season.

The path for the Panthers is a lot clearer than the odds would indicate. Here are the remaining schedules for both teams:

Panthers: vs. Steelers, vs. Lions, at Buccaneers, at Saints

Buccaneers: vs. Bengals, at Cardinals, vs. Panthers, at Falcons

The NFC South might come down to that Jan. 1 meeting between Carolina and Tampa Bay in Week 17. And the Panthers destroyed the Buccaneers once already this season.

Panthers beat the Buccaneers in October

The Panthers came into an Oct. 23 game against the Buccaneers with a 1-5 record. They had fired coach Matt Rhule after their fourth loss. When they beat Tampa Bay 21-3 in that game, it seemed like a fluky outcome. Instead, it predicted that the Panthers would play a lot better under interim coach Steve Wilks and the Buccaneers were nowhere near the team we thought they'd be.

It also looms over the division race. If the Panthers win on Jan. 1, they take the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a season sweep. Realistically, Carolina has to win that game to take the division. But if you've seen the two teams play lately, you know that's possible. And if the Panthers do beat the Buccaneers in Week 17, they just need to match their record in the other three games. This week the Panthers are 2.5-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Buccaneers are 3.5-point underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. The NFC South could have a first-place tie after this week.

The odds are favorable to the Panthers. A +375 underdog is about a 10- or 10.5-point underdog in a single game. The Panthers won't be double-digit underdogs for that all-important game at Tampa Bay. Carolina is playing pretty well lately, especially on defense.

Maybe the Buccaneers still win the NFC South and Brady gets at least one more playoff game. But that scenario seems a lot less likely than the odds would lead you to believe.