NFL betting, odds: Here's the best way to bet Tom Brady and the NFC South

One of my favorite things about the summer is knowing what's on the other side: NFL football. We are less than five months removed from the Super Bowl and only 29 days away from the first preseason game. Like the 32 NFL teams, we, as bettors, can't wait to put the lessons learned last season into practice with a clean slate. So we will spend the following two months putting our research to work, crafting our futures bets, and looking for edges in preseason totals. This time of year may not bring much entertainment for the casual fan, but bettors can find significant advantages in preseason games and the robust futures market.

The wide range of bets you can place on NFL futures gives us plenty of options in how we want to take a position on a particular team. Although most bettors are zeroing in on some of the more popular markets like win totals, MVP candidates, and whether teams will make or miss the playoffs, there is an excellent opportunity at BetMGM to bet into what I think is this year's most predictable division.

NFC South - Straight Forecast: 1st Buccaneers/2nd Saints (+100)

You don't have to outsmart the market or take a radical position in every bet. There are times when the cards fall as expected, and I think there is a better than 50% chance that happens here. A good description of the NFC South would be a division consisting of a favorite to reach the Super Bowl, a possible playoff team, and two of the worst teams in football. So my thought process starts with answering the question of whether the two remaining teams in the division can finish in second place.

Can the Panthers or Falcons surpass the Saints?

The betting market tells us that Carolina and Atlanta may be the two worst teams in the NFC. The Carolina Panthers Super Bowl odds are 150 to 1, and there are only two teams in the entire league with longer odds. Guess who is one of them? The Atlanta Falcons at 250 to 1. Both teams' win totals are set low at 5.5 and 4.5, respectively, and the odds (-115) reflect Atlanta under 4.5 wins is taking money.

One of the biggest reasons expectations are so low for these two teams is their inability to address the quarterback position in the offseason. Sam Darnold returns to Carolina after a nightmare season that led to the abrupt dismissal of promising offensive coordinator Joe Brady and positioned Matt Rhule as one of the betting favorites to be the first head coach fired this season. Among QBs with at least 200 snaps, Darnold ranked 31st in both EPA per play and CPOE. Unfortunately, Atlanta's QB situation isn't much better with former Titans backup Marcus Mariota replacing Matt Ryan.

Both teams drafted quarterbacks in the third round of this year's draft, but I think it's unlikely either can make a significant enough contribution to change the course of either team's season. Certainly not enough to catch New Orleans, which could be a 9- or 10-win team this season. It's easy to get comfortable with both these teams remaining at the bottom of the standings.

The Saints could be a sneaky playoff team

It's a new era in New Orleans with Sean Payton handing the keys to Dennis Allen. Now that we feel strong enough that Atlanta and Carolina are on the road to six or fewer wins, we need New Orleans to fall in that 7-10 win range to secure second place and cash our bet. The Saints' win total is currently sitting directly in the middle at 8.5. They are also +135 to make the playoffs and +375 to win the division. I like their chances of going over 8.5 wins and making the playoffs, making the +135 bet attractive as well. However, I would rather take the +100 with this bet and bank on them falling in that 7-10 win range.

New Orleans pulled together nine wins last season while overcoming numerous injuries. Per ClevAnalytics, they were 25th in adjusted games lost, including four straight losses without their best offensive playmaker in RB Alvin Kamara. The Saints added weapons for Jameis Winston in the passing game with veteran WR Jarvis Landry and Ohio State rookie Chris Olave. But New Orleans' selection of athletic OT Trevor Penning signals to me that the running game will remain the offense's focal point. According to PFF via Football Outsiders, the Saints ranked 29th last season in pass-play rate during non-garbage time situations. The balanced offensive philosophy that helped Winston post a 14-3 TD-to-Int ratio and reduce the turnovers that previously plagued him returns in 2022 with a much stronger receiving corp to support him. Adding Olave and Landry will only help Winston improve on last season's results and push New Orleans into playoff contention.

It's still Tom Brady's division

As much as there is to like about the Saints, they aren't a threat to Tampa Bay to win the NFC South. That's the beauty of the bet. There is a considerable gap between the talent above and below the Saints, making it easier than usual to slot the top two teams. New Orleans has given Tom Brady fits over the last two years, but the Saints would likely need to get to 12 or 13 wins to put this bet in jeopardy, and that still might not be enough. Six of eight division winners last season won at least 12 games, and the Bucs won 13 despite some significant injuries at the tackle and wide receiver positions. With Brady and Byron Leftwich taking over the offensive game-planning, Tampa Bay has more potential than ever. Based on the odds, we are getting even money for the Saints to fall between the projected best and two of the worst teams in the conference. I will take that bet every time.

Stats provided by PFF.com, ClevAnalytics, and Football Outsiders.