NFL betting: How have the Kansas City Chiefs performed for bettors in AFC Championship Games?
The New England Patriots appeared in eight consecutive AFC championship games from 2012 to 2019. It's one of the more impressive runs in recent NFL history. The Kansas City Chiefs aren't quite at that level just yet, but they're on a dominant run of their own. On Sunday, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a fifth consecutive season. It will be the second consecutive season they meet the Cincinnati Bengals for a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
Though the line movement for this game has been wild all week, Kansas City is currently a 1-point favorite against the Bengals. If this holds until kick-off, it will be the fifth straight AFC Championship game the Chiefs were favored to win. Let's take a look at how the Chiefs have done from a betting perspective in this spot the last few seasons.
Chiefs have been favored in every game
Not only have the Kansas City Chiefs advanced to the AFC Championship game in five consecutive seasons, but they've been favored to advance to the Super Bowl in all five games. That highlights the dominance of the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes partnership.
However, the Chiefs are just 2-2 both straight up and against the spread in their last four AFC Championship games. If you're a fan of offense, the Chiefs are a welcome sight in the AFC Championship game. Overs are 3-1 and each game has featured at least 51 points. Let's take a look back at all four games.
2019: Chiefs vs. Patriots
The Kansas City Chiefs played host to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the 2019 AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs were 3-point home favorites with a total of 50 points.
New England took a 14-0 lead into halftime before the Chiefs answered in the second half. On the first play of the fourth quarter, the Chiefs scored to cut New England's lead to 17-14. This kickstarted an absolutely wild back-and-forth quarter of football.
Damien Williams scored a touchdown to give Kansas City a 28-24 lead with just over two minutes left. On New England's ensuing drive, Charvarius Ward intercepted Brady but the play was nullified because Dee Ford lined up in the neutral zone. That would have likely sealed the win and the cover for the Chiefs, but Brady took advantage of the mistake. Rex Burkhead scored to give New England a 31-28 lead with 39 seconds left.
However, the Chiefs weren't done as Mahomes quickly moved them into field goal range and Harrison Butker sent the game to overtime with a 39-yarder. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Patriots won the toss and Rex Burkhead scored the winning touchdown. New England pulled off the outright upset as a 3-point underdog with the game flying over the total as the teams combined for 68 points.
2020: Chiefs vs. Titans
In January of 2020, the Chiefs were once again a home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. This time, they were laying a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans. The total for the game was set at 51.5 points.
Tennessee jumped out to an early 10-0 lead thanks to a Greg Joseph field goal and Derrick Henry rushing touchdown. Once again, the Chiefs had to play from behind in the AFC Championship Game.
Mahomes and Kansas City responded immediately with a Tyreek Hill touchdown, but the Titans went to their bag of tricks on their next drive as Ryan Tannehill threw a touchdown pass to an offensive lineman to regain a 10-point advantage. However, Kansas City came roaring back before halftime. Hill scored his second touchdown of the game and Mahomes added a rushing touchdown to give Kansas City a 21-17 lead at halftime.
Over bettors and Chiefs backers had to sweat through a scoreless third quarter, but the fourth quarter was good to them. Damien Williams and Sammy Watkins scored to open up a 35-17 lead midway through the fourth quarter to open up an 18-point lead. Anthony Firkser scored a late touchdown to make the final score more flattering for Tennessee, but the Chiefs covered as 7-point favorites and the game once again went over the total.
2021: Chiefs vs. Bills
For all of the talk we've heard about the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills in the last few years, they've met in the AFC Championship game just once. In January of 2021, the Chiefs were 3-point home favorites with the total set at a high 53.5-points.
For the third consecutive season, the Chiefs got off to a slow start. A Tyler Bass field-goal and Dawson Knox touchdown gave Buffalo a 9-0 lead after Bass missed the extra point. However, Kansas City once again roared back. Touchdowns by Mecole Hardman, Tyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire gave Kansas City a 21-9 lead. Buffalo added a field goal right before half-time to make it 21-12.
In the third quarter, the teams exchanged field goals before Travis Kelce scored two receiving touchdown to open up a 38-15 scoreline in favor of Kansas City. Buffalo scored nine points late, but it wasn't nearly enough though it did cash the over for bettors. Kansas City won 38-24, easily covering as a 3-point favorite and once again soaring over the total.
2022: Chiefs vs. Bengals
The most relevant game to this upcoming weekend is the most recent AFC Championship Game. Kansas City was at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and they were sizable favorites. Cincinnati was a 7-point underdog. Oddsmakers expected a lot of points, with the total sitting at 54.5-points.
This time around, it was the Chiefs who got off to a roaring start. Hill, Kelce and Hardman scored first half touchdowns to open up a 21-3 lead. Late in the first half, Joe Burrow threw a screen pass to Samaje Perine that went 41-yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to 21-10. It looked like Kansas City was going to score before halftime, but Tyreek Hill was tackled short of the goal line with five seconds left and the Chiefs left the points on the board.
Down by 11, Evan McPherson cut the lead to eight. After a Mahomes' interception, Burrow found Ja'Marr Chase for a touchdown. A successful two-point conversion to Trent Taylor tied the game. With a little over six minutes left, McPherson kicked a 52-yarder to give Cincinnati their first lead. Mahomes and the Chiefs drove down to the five yard line late, and it looked like they were going to score a late touchdown to win it. However, Mahomes was sacked twice, forcing Butker to send the game to overtime with a field goal.
Kansas City won the overtime toss, but couldn't take advantage as Mahomes was picked off by Vonn Bell. A few plays later, McPherson won the game for the Bengals. Cincinnati won outright as a 7-point underdog and the game finished with just 51 points, meaning the under was the right side for the first time.
The takeaways
There's not much to take away from a spread and/or game result perspective. The Chiefs are 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, looking back at the history of the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, I have two key takeaways.
All four games have seen sizable comebacks. Kansas City erased a 14-point deficit to force overtime against New England. They overcame a 10-point deficit against Tennessee and a 9-point deficit against Buffalo to comeback and win. Last year, they lost despite having an 18-point first half lead. That would lead me towards looking at live-betting this game if either team takes a big lead. It seems like there has been massive shifts of momentum in every game they've played at this stage. There's an opportunity to cash in through live betting.
Also, these AFC Championship games have featured points. The last four games have seen 68, 59, 62 and 51 points. The total for Sunday's game is just 47.5-points. Sure, the under hit in the meeting between these teams last year, but that total was a touchdown higher than it is this year. It looks like Patrick Mahomes is progressing well from his ankle injury in practice.
All three meetings between the Chiefs and Bengals over the last 13 months have featured at least 51 points. This is a buy-low spot on the over. Sure, it's a risk because of Mahomes' injury, but the guy is an animal and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him ball out on a compromised leg.
