NFL betting: How we are fading Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson

This week marks the start of NFL training camp for many rookies, with the veterans set to jump into the action the following week. By this point in the summer, we are all desperately craving any taste of NFL action, even if it’s just clips of our favorite players going through the motions in a helmet and a mesh jersey. It’s a bittersweet time of year. On one hand, it does feel like the season is starting. The sports betting markets are slowly becoming more robust, we are thinking about fantasy football drafts, and the news cycle will soon become filled with training camp fights and verbal sparring between front offices and holdouts. On the other hand, it’s an extremely slow burn passing the time during these next two months. The preseason can be a painful watch, leaving us wondering why we even bothered in the first place.

It’s in our nature to be excited over the upcoming season. I know it, you know it, and more importantly, the sportsbooks know it. So when we are looking at season-long props, our first impulse is to gravitate to overs. It’s July, teams are the healthiest they will be all season and every player is seen through the lens of potential. This especially holds true at the quarterback position. Increased expectations can be driven by change of scenery, the addition of offensive weapons, or a new play-caller. When you are coming off a good season, you're expected to continue to improve. If you didn’t play well in the previous year, you’re expected to bounce back.

However, when the games begin, all the unforeseen challenges that quarterbacks encounter during a season start to chip away at those stats that feel easily obtainable now, so I’d rather bet that most quarterbacks will be playing in less optimal conditions. That’s life in the NFL.

Here are two veteran quarterbacks I will be looking to fade, as the hype heading into the season is a little too high.

Aaron Rodgers under 3,899 passing yards (-110)

Last season snapped Rodgers' streak of five consecutive 4,000-yard passing seasons. It was a bizarre year for the Packers, who looked like one of the league’s most disconnected offenses the first few weeks of 2022. Gone were the previous year’s WR pairing of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and it took several weeks for Green Bay’s young wideouts to earn the trust of the four-time MVP.

It was far from a seamless adjustment for Rodgers, but it pales in comparison to the changes he will be playing through this season. Rodgers instantly becomes the savior in the Big Apple for a franchise that hasn’t won a Super Bowl in over 50 years. The Jets were able to bring in some familiar faces (Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb) to ease the transition, but Rodgers will need to build chemistry quickly with the Jets' young playmakers if this offense is going to get off the ground. He will be under much more pressure than he was in Green Bay, as a result of both the media and an offensive line that graded out 30th in pass blocking last year. Plus, the Jets have one of the toughest schedules to start the year. In the first six weeks, they face Buffalo, Dallas, Kansas City and Philadelphia.

I’m confident Rodgers will figure it out, but it’s going to take more time than his yardage total allows. With this number being set for a little more than 200 yards over this passing yards total in 2022 (3,695), I have to play under on a QB approaching 40 years old playing behind a weak offensive line.

Russell Wilson under 3,725.5 passing yards (-110)

Sean Payton is a solid hire, but I think we are being a little too optimistic about his ability to return Wilson to his prime. Wilson is 10-19 as a starter while throwing for 3,113 and 3,524 yards in the last two seasons. While plenty of the dysfunction in Denver can be attributed to former coach Nathaniel Hackett, don’t let it gloss over the signals of Wilson’s decline. The Broncos’ QB took a career-high 55 sacks last season. He was dragged down on 10.2% of attempted passes, and I have concerns his struggles escaping defenders diminishes some of the big-play ability that made him one of the most successful quarterbacks in the league. Wilson’s PFF passing grade ranked 18th of 22 qualifying quarterbacks who took 50% of snaps last season.

I have no doubt Denver will be improved as a team, and Payton’s influence on Wilson will be a positive one. I’m just not convinced it results in more passing production. Denver’s young wideouts have consistently battled injuries and struggled with consistency. If Wilson can’t count on them early, I fully expect Payton to build this offense around the running game even more. Payton’s offenses in New Orleans relied more on efficiency than explosive plays, and that philosophy is expected to continue with former Saints OC Joe Lombardi reunited with Payton in Denver.

Only nine QBs threw for more than 3,725 yards last season, and every single one played in at least 16 games. Wilson has started fewer games in each of the last two seasons, making it fair to question a bet on his durability, knowing the amount of sacks he took in his first year in Denver. Even though it’s a positive change, it’s still a new offense for Wilson, and it’s going to take some time to get comfortable. I will go against the grain and fade the Broncos QB in Year 1 with his new coach.