NFL betting: How to bet if you are all in on Tom Brady
Tom Brady's quest for his eighth Super Bowl victory continues this week as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL playoffs. The Bucs are 3-points favorites at BetMGM and have the second-best odds to repeat as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. The three-point spread might be surprising, considering the Rams struggled with the Ravens down the stretch and blew a 17-0 lead to the 49ers in a game they were outgained by 184 yards. If you see it as I do, the Rams' 34-11 thrashing of the Cardinals was more about Arizona's season-ending spiral than the Rams' resurgence.
I bet Tampa Bay at -2.5 earlier in the week and have very little doubt they are the superior team. Playing the Bucs at the current number is a little less appealing because three is the most relevant key number in football. Approximately 14% of NFL games end with a three-point margin of victory, making it the most likely outcome by a significant margin.
BetMGM has plenty of options if you think Brady will pull out the victory and you don't want to worry about laying three points. Per Sharp Football, Brady is 14-2 overall in the divisional round and 12-1 at home. I put together four creative alternatives in which you don't have to lay the key number of three but can still bet on Tampa Bay's success. All four bets are at plus-money odds, which will give you a larger return on your wager.
First-quarter line: Tampa Bay (-0.5) +115
First-quarter lines can be a real sweat if your team doesn't get the ball first. We are getting +115 odds for Tampa to have the lead after the first quarter ends. Brady's Bucs lead the NFL in first-quarter scoring at home, averaging 7.8 points this season. The Rams on the road rank 26th with only 2.3 points per game. Under Brady, Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the first-quarter moneyline in the postseason, with the only blemish coming on the road. The Bucs outscored Philly 14-0 last week in front of their home crowd.
First-half spread: Tampa Bay (-2.5) +105
If the coin toss is a concern and you want Brady to have more time to work, the first-half bet is still an option at plus money. You have to lay -2.5 points, but Tampa Bay's scoring average soars from 7.8 points to 18.8 in the first half at home. You are still betting into a market where the Bucs are the highest-scoring team in the league, there is just more risk because the margin between them and the Rams is shorter. The Rams' road scoring average jumps from 26th in the league in the first quarter to just outside the Top 10 in the first half. You are getting a smaller return at +105 and are banking on at least a three-point halftime lead.
Moneyline and both teams to score 20 or more points: Buccaneers and Yes +225
Sometimes in the NFL the outcome is exactly what you expected, but the game didn't go the way you thought it would at all. This is an option for bettors who just want to bank on Brady getting it done at the end at plus money. This bet returns 225% of your wager compared to the 66.67% the Buccaneers money line at -150 odds will yield.
I detailed why I think this game will go over the total of 48.5 points earlier in the week. If you think the Rams have the firepower to keep this close, this is a great way to maximize your return. We detailed above that Tampa averages just below 19 points at home in the first half alone. L.A. has failed to score 20 points only twice in eighteen games.
Moneyline and total points: Tampa Bay over 36.5 (+105)
What if you don't trust Matthew Stafford at all? This is the best way to get the Bucs moneyline at plus money without being very dependent on the Rams. We are getting the total at 12 points below market in a game where both offenses average 27 and 30 points each. If the total was 36.5 for every game these two teams played this season, it would have hit in 33 of 36 games (91.6%). There were 58 total points when these teams played in Week 3. You are getting Brady on the moneyline at +105 with very little risk on the total.
Stats provided by teamrankings.com.
