Which teams would be attractive if Pac-12 or Big 12 expand? Where does Boise State fit?

The college football landscape is once again unstable.

USC and UCLA shocked the nation earlier this month when they announced they were leaving the Pac-12 to join the Big Ten. Following an example set by Texas and Oklahoma, which announced in July 2021 that they were leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, the Trojans and Bruins became the latest programs to bail on their longtime conference.

Some questions about the uncertain future have been answered. The Pac-12 Board of Directors met on July 1 and authorized the conference to explore all expansion options. A few days later, the board authorized the league to begin negotiations on a new media rights deal. The conference is open to adding to its ranks, and it plans to have a brand-new TV deal to show prospective teams.

But what’s followed the Los Angeles schools’ departure has been weeks of rampant speculation about the future of the Pac-12, and how far the ripple effect of that future would spread.

And naturally, that has included speculation about Boise State.

Will what’s left of the Pac-12 and Big 12 merge and form some sort of super conference to compete with the SEC and Big Ten? Will the Big 12 poach what’s left of the Pac-12 to further its ranks? Will the Pac-12 snatch a few teams from the Big 12 just as BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati are preparing to join?

Or will the Pac-12 be forced to look to the Group of Five to rebuild its ranks?

There is value to be found in the Mountain West and American Athletic Conference in terms of athletics success, TV markets and brand recognition. Here’s a look at the Group of Five teams most likely to get poached by the Pac-12 or Big 12.

MOUNTAIN WEST

BOISE STATE

In terms of football success, there aren’t any teams left in the Group of Five that can compete with the Broncos.

The rest of Boise State’s athletic programs haven’t seen enough sustained success to excite Power Five conferences, although the men’s basketball and softball teams are coming off historic seasons.

Boise State’s signature blue turf and its history of success still resonate with college football fans and recruits, and the Broncos’ long relationship with ESPN helped take its brand nationwide. That relationship ended in January 2020, but Boise State’s viewership numbers have remained strong, and it will open the season on ESPN for the second year in a row — at Oregon State on Sept. 3.

Boise State’s plans for a vast renovation of its athletic facilities may also play well with Power Five conferences. What the Broncos don’t have working in their favor is Boise’s TV market, which ranked No. 101 nationally in Nielsen’s 2021 Designated Market Area survey.

SAN DIEGO STATE

Unlike Boise State, the Aztecs have major TV markets at their disposal. San Diego ranked No. 27 in Nielsen’s 2021 DMA survey, and nearby Los Angeles ranked No. 2, trailing only New York.

San Diego State has also shown a willingness to invest in its football program, including the construction of Snapdragon Stadium, which is scheduled to be open in time for the Aztecs’ season opener against Arizona on Sept. 3.

On the field, the Aztecs finished last season as Mountain West runner-up after falling to Utah State in the title game, and the football team is regularly in contention to crack the AP Top 25. San Diego State’s basketball team also has a strong enough presence nationally to add value to a Power Five conference.

COLORADO STATE

The Rams haven’t seen nearly as much success as Boise State or San Diego State on the football field, but Colorado State’s men’s basketball team has been among the best in the Mountain West in recent years. The Rams produced the conference’s highest picks in this year’s NFL (Trey McBride) and NBA (David Roddy) drafts.

Colorado State benefits from the Denver TV market, which ranked No. 16 in Nielsen’s 2021 DMA survey, and its athletic department has a deep pool of booster funds to draw from. The Rams also would have a natural rival in the Pac-12 in Colorado.

FRESNO STATE

If the Pac-12 wants to maintain a foothold in the southern part of California, adding San Diego State and Fresno State are obvious choices. The natural rivalry the Bulldogs and Aztecs bring with them may make the package even more attractive.

Fresno State has been hit and miss when it comes to athletic success, even though the football team has been among the best in the Mountain West in recent years. That should continue this season as the Bulldogs are led by Jake Haener, who is expected to be one of the top quarterbacks in the conference.

UNLV

The Rebels haven’t seen success in football, but the Las Vegas TV market would be attractive to any conference. It ranked No. 40 in the 2021 Nielsen’s survey, and the city has added NFL and NHL franchises in recent years. It isn’t going to stop growing anytime soon.

‘DreamChaser’: Will this German pass rusher be next to join Boise State’s 2023 class?

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE

MEMPHIS

The Tigers don’t have near the same history of success on the football field as Boise State, but Memphis has been among the top Group of Five teams in the country recently. They earned a New Year’s Six bid in 2019, falling to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Memphis also might have the most prominent men’s basketball program on this list, and it would be a welcome addition to almost any Power Five conference. The Tigers are coached by former NBA star Penny Hardaway and the roster is full of likely NBA Draft picks. Memphis ended Boise State’s NCAA Tournament run earlier this year and ended the Broncos’ run in the NIT in 2021.

Memphis announced sweeping upgrades to its athletic facilities in August 2021, and the university announced plans for a $150 million renovation to the football stadium earlier this year. The Tigers also benefit from two large TV markets: Memphis, which ranked No. 51 in Nielsen’s 2021 DMA survey, and Nashville, which ranked No. 29.

SMU

SMU has a wild football history, going 49–9–1 in the first five seasons of the 1980s, and then incurring a “death penalty” over recruiting violations that left the school with no football program for two years. The Mustangs have been a bowl team three of the past five seasons, and the men’s basketball team could add value to a Power Five conference.

SMU is also in the midst of an expansion to its football stadium, and the Mustangs benefit from being in the Dallas-Fort Worth TV market, which ranked No. 5 on Nielsen’s 2021 DMA survey.