The significance of why Hamas chose to attack Israel now

Hamas' unprecedented attack on Israel comes at a time when the country faces historic domestic political division, growing violence in the West Bank and high-stakes negotiations among Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

After its members killed 200 Israelis and kidnapped dozens more, Hamas claimed it was taking revenge for a series of recent actions by Israel at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque and in the West Bank. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government has been conducting an escalating crackdown against what it says are rising Palestinian terror attacks for more than a year.

Former U.S. intelligence and military officers said they believed the timing of the Hamas attack was primarily aimed at disrupting negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia as Riyadh appeared on the verge of a historic step to normalize relations with Israel.

Iran is seeking “to put pressure on their implacable foe Israel” with this attack, said retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis, a former commander of NATO.

In an interview with NBC News‘ Lester Holt last month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said, “We are against any bilateral relations between our regional countries and the Zionist regime,” a reference to Israel. Raisi added, “We believe that the Zionist regime is intending to normalize this bilateral relations with the regional countries to create security for itself in the region.”

In recent weeks, diplomats from the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia have told NBC News that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden have all expressed support for an agreement that would result in Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel diplomatically.

Diplomats say that if Saudi Arabia agreed to recognize Israel it would lead other Arab states to do so. A series of such agreement would end decades of hostility between Israel and its neighbors dating back to 1948.

All three sides, though, have complex conditions for such an agreement. Breaking with past Saudi rulers, bin Salman has signaled that he is willing to recognize Israel, given the vast economic benefits it would provide to Saudi Arabia. Before the Hamas attack, there were reports that Saudi Arabia had told the White House it would agree to increase its oil production to help cement a deal, something the Biden White House has sought for two years.

But the Saudis want the U.S. to help them develop a civilian nuclear program, something opposed by hard-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition and by members of the U.S. Senate, which would have to approve any such deal.

Separately, Biden told Netanyahu when they met in New York last month that any agreement would have to include land for the Palestinians so that they could establish a viable state, something Netanyahu’s settlement extensions in the West Bank would prevent. Last week, a bipartisan group of Senators raised the same concerns in a letter to the White House.

The West Bank, meanwhile, remains the scene of rising attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians. Israeli settlers have violently attacked Palestinians at least 700 times in 2023 — the highest number on record, according to the U.N.’s humanitarian agency (OCHA).

Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised the expansion of the settlements, calling for more. Netanyahu’s far-right government responded with plans to build 5,000 new Israeli settlements. Israeli settlements built on Palestinian land are illegal according to international law, and have been condemned by the U.S. government.

As the talks with the Saudis, Israelis and Americans progressed, Palestinian disappointment rose. “There is a palpable frustration among the Palestinians at seeing the Saudis and Israelis moving closer,” said Stavridis.

Netanyahu has also stoked domestic division among Israelis as he has pushed a judicial reform that would weaken Israel’s Supreme Court, a move that sparked mass protest across the country.

The first portion of reform passed in March after The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, enacted a law that protected a prime minister from being removed from power. It stipulated that the prime minister could be ousted only for health or mental health reasons, and only the leader and their office could make that decision.

The judicial reform came after Netanyahu  forced multiple elections in recent years as the prime minister struggled to remain in power. Critics denounced the court reforms by noting that it would weaken the democratic checks of power within Israel, some even noting that it was tailor-made to keep Netanyahu in leadership after he faced allegations of corruption.

A second part of the reforms passed in July would prevent the court from declaring government decisions unreasonable. A poll from Israel’s Channel 13 that month found 56% of Israelis feared the judicial reform would spark a civil war.

Starvidis, the former admiral, said that Hamas and its patrons viewed the deep political divisions in Israel as a potential opportunity to strike. There is a sense among Israel’s adversaries that it “has never been more divided, never been weaker, never been more torn apart, he said.

Nadav Eyal, as Israeli author and senior columnist with the Yediot Ahronot newspaper, predicted in an interview that the attack would transform the country further. “This event was a national trauma. It’s like 9/11 but frankly bigger,” he said. “We have dozens of people who are abducted — civilians.”

Eyal said that, no matter the country's divisions, Israel would respond militarily. “This really forces Israel to react with the utmost force,” he added. “There is a consensus with the Israeli public and the political sphere that this changes everything in the region and for Israelis.”