Roster analysis: Here’s why the Sacramento Kings are headed toward ... competency?

Hopefully, for Keegan Murray’s sake, winning Summer League MVP gets overshadowed by more impressive career accolades down the line.

The rookie from Iowa has set a high bar for what should be a long NBA career. He averaged 23.3 points and 7.0 rebounds over four games in Las Vegas while shooting 50% from the floor, 40% from 3-point range and 80.1% from the free-throw line. He might finally give the Kings a true two-way player to build around, which would be a significant step in trying to end a 16-year-playoff drought.

There’s a chance Murray becomes the embodiment of a changing culture. The Kings have whiffed in the draft so many times, paid the wrong players, created toxic auras and turned over regimes to the point where they won’t be taken seriously until they create a sustainable winner.

That starts and ends with Murray. Because while De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are the more ready-made contributors, neither has the two-way upside that wins in the modern NBA like Murray.

The good news: the Kings have at least a semblance of a core that fits together. Sure, Tyrese Haliburton was a nice player with a promising future, but the roster never made sense once the team drafted him and Davion Mitchell to run with Fox in the backcourt. With Murray, they have a wing that complements Fox and Sabonis, giving the team a stronger backbone than it’s had in years.

With an improved roster comes higher expectations. And higher expectations are always accompanied by more pressure. In the Kings’ case, that usually manifests from ownership, meaning there could be more change on the way if the team doesn’t take a big step in Mike Brown’s first year as head coach.

Let’s take a look at where the roster stands and why there should be reasons for optimism heading into the 2022-23 campaign.

The foundational pieces

De’Aaron Fox, guard

Domantas Sabonis, big

Keegan Murray, wing

Davion Mitchell, guard

Fox will orchestrate, but he has to add to his game. The team leader in minutes played and shot attempts can’t shoot 29.7% from 3-point range while also being a defensive liability. He’s making too much money ($30.4 million this season) and is too important to have such glaring holes.

But the Kings have made their bed with Fox, evident by his max contract that has four years remaining, and the decision to trade away Haliburton despite being arguably the better player at a fraction of the cost. As important as Murray is, Fox shares the responsibility of turning around the franchise. He has to embrace it because that’s what he’s being paid for. The Kings need him to be a tone-setter beyond the stat sheet.

But there are signs Fox could turn things around. He shot 38% from beyond the arc in his last 16 games of the season after Sabonis was acquired from the Pacers. He averaged 28.9 points with 6.8 assists while shooting 50% overall. Fox should be at the point in his career where that level is sustainable in games that matter. Because it never felt like the playoffs were truly at stake while Fox was showing out with his new running mate.

Mitchell is an intriguing player. But it might be a stretch to call him a foundational piece if he doesn’t continue to get better and earn a spot as a mainstay in crunch time. But he’s arguably Sacramento’s best perimeter defender, which means a lot for a team that finished 27th in the NBA in defensive rating last season. At 6-foot-2, it’s fair to wonder if the Kings would be willing to play two small guards when games are in the balance.

Sabonis’ best attribute might be his passing, which works with a score-first point guard like Fox. Sabonis will continue to butter his bread at the elbow and in pick-and-rolls. He averaged nearly 19 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in 15 games after last season’s trade. The Western Conference might be too loaded for Sabonis to make his third All-Star appearance, but he could garner that type of attention should the Kings remain playoff hunt come February.

The ‘other’ starters

Harrison Barnes, wing

Kevin Huerter, wing

Getting Huerter, a career 38% shooter from distance, for a protected first-round pick and two non-rotation players was a winning trade for general manager Monte McNair. Getting him on a four-year, $65 million contract could be a relative bargain if he improves as the starting shooting guard over that span. He had a positive net rating in three of his four seasons in Atlanta, though he never averaged more than 12.2 points over a full season.

Still, Huerter should be a strong catch-and-shoot option in a starting lineup with decent passers in Fox, Sabonis and Murray. He might not be strong defensively, but at least the Kings have Mitchell to complement him in the off-guard spot. Huerter is coming off a career-best .559 true shooting percentage.

Barnes’ value more likely lies in his experience than pure production at this point in his career — and in this lineup. He might be the Kings’ most consistent player, while also being the least splashy. He’s hit over 39% of his 3-pointers the last two seasons and should get even better looks with the Kings adding credible offensive talent in Murray and Huerter this offseason. The question becomes, would he be a player the Kings trade to allow Murray more breathing room? Or do they need another veteran in the locker room to be a stabilizing force?

Role players

Malik Monk, wing

Trey Lyles, wing

Chimezi Metu, wing

Richaun Holmes, big

Kent Bazemore, wing

The Kings are hoping Monk can provide some microwave scoring the bench lacked last season. He was a college teammate of Fox and the two were close back in high school. Is there real value in that? It remains to be seen, but it shouldn’t hurt. Lyles and Metu are somewhat overlapping as stretch fours, but Lyles has a clear advantage as a shooter while Metu is the better athlete.

Holmes might be one of the best backup centers in the league but the Kings are paying a premium for it. He has three years and over $36.1 million remaining on his contract. It’s not huge money, but also more than a team should pay for a player in that type of role. Bazemore is a fouling machine but he can shoot some and provide athleticism on the wing. The Kings are his fifth team in five seasons.

The Monk and Huerter additions do nothing but hurt Lamb’s chances at significant minutes.

Projects

Neemias Queta, big

And we’ve come to why Holmes might be expendable at over $12 million over the next three seasons. Queta’s size and athleticism is tantalizing and his ceiling as a defender shouldn’t be ignored. He played well in Summer League to earn another two-way contract, averaging 12.8 points, 6.5 rebound and 2.8 blocks. He has a chance to be the team’s best (and only?) true rim protector. The team should be invested in maximizing his potential, given the roster’s dearth of defensive talent.

Competing for roster spots

Quinn Cook, guard

Matthew Dellavedova, guard

K.Z. Okpala, wing/big

It would appear the battle for the third point guard job will go to a former NBA Finals champion in Cook and Dellavedova, neither of whom played in the NBA last season. Their additions signal an emphasis on veteran leadership traits more than developing a young player, which makes sense given the need for Fox and Mitchell to eat up minutes.

Okpala is an intriguing talent. He’s 6-foot-10 with a long enough wingspan to be given consideration as a potential defensive weapon. He signed a two-year contract which indicates the Kings have plans for him. He played for Brown on the Nigerian National Team.