The Restaurant Group (LON:RTN) Share Price Is Down 79% So Some Shareholders Are Rather Upset

This week we saw the The Restaurant Group plc (LON:RTN) share price climb by 11%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 79% after a long stretch. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. However, in the best case scenario (far from fait accompli), this improved performance might be sustained.

See our latest analysis for Restaurant Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Restaurant Group's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 39% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 27% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve. With a P/E ratio of 54.95, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:RTN Past and Future Earnings, April 19th 2019
LSE:RTN Past and Future Earnings, April 19th 2019

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Restaurant Group's TSR for the last 5 years was -65%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Restaurant Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 34% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 19% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you would like to research Restaurant Group in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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