Michigan State basketball Big Ten tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction for Maryland — and beyond?
• What: 7-seed MSU vs. 10-seed Maryland, Big Ten tournament second round
• When: 6:30 p.m. Thursday
• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 84.
(NOTE: If MSU wins Thursday, it's the same TV and radio for Friday's 6:30 p.m. quarterfinal game against Wisconsin.)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 20-11 overall, finished 11-9 in the Big Ten and is unranked. MSU is No. 40 in the NET rankings, which is the tool most used by the NCAA tournament selection committee. Maryland is 15-16 overall, finished 7-13 in the Big Ten and is unranked. The Terrapins are No. 89 in the NET rankings.
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 663-265 in his 27th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Maryland — Danny Manning is 126-153 in his seventh season as a head coach. This is his first season as the interim head coach of the Terrapins, taking over in December when Mark Turgeon stepped down/was forced out. Maryland is 10-13 since Manning took over. He was previously the head coach at Wake Forest for six seasons.
• Series: MSU leads 12-7 all-time. The Spartans won both of the first two meetings this season, 65-63 on Feb. 1 at Maryland and 77-67 on Sunday in East Lansing.
• Betting line: MSU -2.5
• MSU Big Ten tournament champion odds: 12-to-1
Lineups
MSU
C (30) Marcus Bingham Jr. (7-0) 8.9
PF (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 9.6
SF (44) Gabe Brown (6-8) 11.5
SG (5) Max Christie (6-6) 9.4
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 6.5
Maryland
C (33) Qudus Wahab (6-11) 7.9
PF (24) Donta Scott (6-8) 12.5
SF (13) Hakim Hart (6-8) 9.9
SG (5) Eric Ayala (6-5) 14.6
PG (4) Fatts Russell (5-11) 14.9
• MSU update: The Spartans begin the postseason having steadied things a bit by beating Maryland at home on Sunday. In that game, Marcus Bingham again made the case that he’s their top option at center. It’ll be interesting to see if Bingham returns to the starting lineup — he started Sunday because it was senior day — and if his performance carries over. For the first two months of the season, he was a consistent presence for MSU. His play has been sporadic since. Point guard AJ Hoggard said Monday that he’s feeling better after playing through an illness last week. The Spartans are a considerably stronger team with Hoggard at full strength. This is the second year in a row MSU has faced Maryland to open the Big Ten tournament and fourth time the Spartans have been the seventh seed or lower. It’s only the sixth time since the Big Ten tournament began in 1998 that MSU hasn’t earned a bye straight to Friday’s quarterfinals.
• Inside the matchup: Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham are the only players on MSU’s team to have played an opponent three times in one season, being part of MSU’s team to beat Michigan thrice in 2019. It’s hard to do unless you have a clear matchup advantage and even then it’s a chore (ask the 1989 Flying Illini, who should have won a national championship). MSU’s advantages over Maryland are small — depth of talent by a little bit, a better frontcourt by a smidgen. But I’d bet Terrapins seniors Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell think they can take down the Spartans with a third try, given the way the first two games unfolded. Malik Hall has been MSU’s best option in both previous matchups, scoring 16 and 17 points, respectively. The key, though, for the Spartans begins with defending how they did for long stretches last Sunday. Sure, Maryland missed a lot of outside shots in the first half, but the Spartans defensively also got into Maryland’s guards and helped on penetration as well as they have in a while.
• A look at MSU's Big Ten tourney path: Should MSU beat Maryland, No. 2 seed Wisconsin awaits the Spartans for a 6:30 p.m. Friday quarterfinal. That’s as favorable a matchup as MSU could ask for among the Big Ten’s upper crust. It’s not that Wisconsin isn’t deserving of its share of the Big Ten title. But pound for pound, the Spartans match up with the Badgers better than they do the others in that realm, as shown by by their 12-point win in Madison in January. Wisconsin star Johnny Davis says he’s good to go after suffering an ankle injury against Nebraska in the season finale. We’ll see if he's at all limited. He’s essential for the Badgers. If MSU upsets Wisconsin, I think the Spartans’ run would end Saturday against what’ll probably be No. 3-seed Purdue. I don’t see that matchup going well for MSU again, even if the Boilermakers’ suspect defense on ball screens plays into MSU’s hands offensively. But if the Spartans get that far, they would probably avoid being an 8 seed in the NCAA tournament (where they're projected now), moving up a line to a 7, which would result in a more favorable path to the second weekend.
• Prediction: I’m tempted to pick Maryland Thursday, because my gut tells me this game is going to be a bear for the Spartans. But MSU has twice had just enough to get past the Terrapins at the end. Perhaps that’s the case again.
Make it: MSU 69, Maryland 66
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball Big Ten tournament prediction, preview, betting and TV
