Marquette Law Poll: Trump leads Biden 51% to 49%, latest results show
MILWAUKEE - Marquette University Law School released on Wednesday, April 17 the results of a new statewide survey leading up to the 2024 presidential election. It shows among likely voters, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 51% to 49%.
In the January poll, it was Trump 49% and Biden 49% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it was Trump 50% and Biden 49%.
COMPLETE POLL RESULTS: Marquette Law School survey
"There’s a wild difference in the perspective on which issues matter the most depending on which party we’re talking about," said Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll Director. "There’s plenty of room for this race to flip either direction and I just think we’re fooling ourselves if we think we have a confident expectation about who is going to be the winner."
When you add in third-party candidates, Franklin said an independent candidate in the teens will be something to keep an eye on.
"It’s a complicated mix of issues within parties," Franklin said.
U.S. Senate race
In the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% of registered voters. Republican challenger Eric Hovde is supported by 47%, the latest poll shows. Among likely voters, the race is a tie – 50% for each.
Those US Senate totals include initially undecided voters who were then asked who they would pick if they had to. The initial results among registered voters were Baldwin 44%, Hovde 37%, undecided 18%.
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) April 17, 2024
In the Senate race, among registered voters, 94% of Democrats support Baldwin and 85% of Republicans support Hovde, the poll shows. Among independents, 61% favor Baldwin compared to 37% favoring Hovde.
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Voters were also asked what issues are important to them. Those included the economy, immigration, border security and abortion policies.
"Choose your issues wisely I guess is the real thing," Franklin said.
Voter enthusiasm
The Marquette Law poll shows enthusiasm for voting among Wisconsin registered voters is lower now than in March 2020. In this latest survey, 47% say they are "very enthusiastic" about voting. Four years ago, 67% were "very enthusiastic."
Among those who are very enthusiastic, 59% support Trump and 41% support Biden, the poll shows. Among those who are "not too enthusiastic" about voting, 62% support Biden and 37% support Trump.
"I think part of it is can you get that excited about a re-run? you know it’s episode 2 of the show we already saw," Franklin said.
The Marquette Law poll indicates more voters have negative opinions of each of the presidential candidates than positive opinions. Broken down for Biden, 59% have a negative opinion and 40% have a positive opinion. For Trump, 56% have a negative opinion and 43% have a positive opinion.
17% of voters see both Trump and Biden unfavorably, a total generally unchanged since five months ago. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) April 17, 2024
Senate candidate favorability appears to be quite different. Baldwin is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 42%. Hove is seen as favorably by 19%, unfavorable by 24%, with 56% of respondents saying they "haven't heard enough."
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The new poll was conducted from April 3 through April 10 and involved interviewing 814 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Of the full sample, 736 of the registered voters are considered likely voters.
