Macon housing market could get worse in 2023, economists say. Here’s why

Macon’s housing market, which experienced rising prices and falling sales last year, could continue to suffer in 2023, experts said.

Economists at the University of Georgia’s Economic Outlook event last week said that Macon’s housing market is in position to lose some ground this year.

“The decline of the housing market in Middle Georgia will likely continue, and it’s part of a universal trend,” said economist Greg George, the director and co-founder of the Center for Economic Analysis at Middle Georgia State University. “But if you’re going to have a mild recession, have one when the economy is strong.”

George spoke on economic trends in Middle Georgia at the event, including the fact that the housing market will likely see a dip in 2023. He cited a 40% decrease in home sales within the past year in Middle Georgia along with interest rates, which he and other economists predict will rise in 2023 and cause a mild recession.

Homes are in high demand in a Macon market stunted by high costs and construction issues since the COVID-19 pandemic.

There was also an influx of renters in Macon. By 2022 the city became a destination for out-of-town renters, leading to even fewer properties available for sale and a shortage of rental properties available to set the table for a downward trend in 2023.

Some Middle Georgia realtors expressed slight concern with rising interest rates in July, though they did not end up continuing to rise last year. The 2023 rate hikes have a specific goal as part of an effort to halt inflation.

The rising rates would put a strain on the housing market in Middle Georgia, according to George, but he made clear that it would only be a mild impact.

“Back in 2008, 2009… we had a 30 or 40% correction, which hurt, and that can become very financially problematic,” George said when comparing Middle Georgia’s current economic state to the housing crisis at the end of the 2000s. “This time we don’t see it being nearly as bad as it was back then.”

The interest rates combined with rising mortgages mean the housing market will probably take a hit as part of an overall recession. George said Middle Georgia will be prepared to handle the dip.

This is largely because of the Other Local Operation Sales Tax passed at the end of 2021. The penny tax raised more money for the government and allowed for lower property taxes in Bibb County. OLOST also put more money back in residents’ pockets, another effect that could help diminish the recession in 2023.

“The OLOST was introduced last year and collected more than $40 million for Macon-Bibb. That let them build back up reserve funds,” George said. “Combined with American Rescue Plan money that could be used to pay for fire trucks, police cars, things like that… they’ve really done a good job of allocating resources to what’s needed.”